We need a much more conservative approach to projecting budget outcomes.
The negative rate experiment has ended. What comes next?
Cautious investment is holding back the outlook for European nations.
More charging stations and lower prices can break EV sales out of their slump.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets, with a spotlight on China.
Shelter costs are keeping inflation measures elevated.
Europe needs to boost defense spending while managing stretched fiscal positions.
Corporate taxes illustrate the complexity of global policy coordination.
Climate risks and regulations are on the rise.
Food prices are dragging down feelings about the economy.
The World Trade Organization is struggling to settle international tensions.
Japan's prolonged downturn has lessons for other nations at inflection points.
European nations still have a long energy transition ahead.
Consumers are less willing to spend freely.
The current housing shortage has been long in the making.
Immigration is a vital source of economic growth.
One of the pleasant surprises of 2023 was how quickly inflation decelerated in major economies. Most of the good news came from falling goods prices.
The challenges in banks' portfolios will work out over time.
When consumers fall behind, the credit card bill goes unpaid.
Over the past two years, we have had to revise a lot of numbers upward: the Fed hiked rates more than we expected, inflation has been sticky and growth has far exceeded expectations.
As the U.S economy continues to expand at a nice rate of speed, the eurozone is stuck in a pitstop. Though the common currency region was able to avoid a technical recession last year, preliminary estimates show that activity stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is often considered the most important indicator of the health of an economy. But there are other measures that provide different perspectives, which can be more timely and impartial. The level of equity markets is one such indicator that provides a window into what’s going on.
Small businesses are a vital part of the American economy. The U.S. Small Business Administration estimates that they represent over 46% of employment and account for the majority of new job creation. Small business openings are an expression of optimism in an entrepreneur’s ability and support from their community.
Saving rates rose immensely across economies during the pandemic period. Government support programs, many designed to stimulate demand, elevated household incomes.
Can inflation continue to decline, and what will drive it down?
This week saw the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. Top researchers join public and private sector leaders to explore the issues facing the world. Every year features an outlook for key risks; this year, the risks felt less hypothetical than they might have in calmer times.
There are about 44 million American men between the ages of 25 and 44, a time of life which is traditionally associated with high rates of employment. Yet members of this cohort are much less likely to be working than they were 20 years ago.
The Fed’s balance sheet could stabilize this year, but details are unclear.
The likelihood of another severe bout of inflation from higher shipping costs alone is low.
The higher level of U.S. oil production is helping to keep global prices contained.
EU nations have compromised on paths toward fiscal balance.
Progress on a 2024 U.S. federal budget has been limited.
The promise of GLP-1 drugs goes far beyond individual weight loss.
The economics team shares a few things that have been on our minds.
The economics teams looks back at the most significant stories we covered during 2023.
The ECB will pivot in 2024, but probably not as early or swiftly as markets predict.
The secular forces that held down rates for forty years have not entirely changed.
American consumers are becoming more frugal this holiday season.
Both supply and demand of workers will prevent a surge in unemployment rates.
The Canadian economy is buckling under the weight of higher interest rates, household debt and immigration.
Food prices illustrate several challenges of containing inflation.
The potency of monetary policy will weigh more heavily on activity in 2024.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.
Companies are rethinking office space.
Housing markets are cooling but unlikely to end in a bust.
Financial flows have shifted this year. In the credit arena, bank lending has been moribund throughout the year, as standards tightened and interest rates rose. But borrowers still need capital, and private lenders are increasingly meeting their needs.
The banking system has stabilized, but latent threats remain.
Households are better off today than before the pandemic.
Forecasting economic outcomes is a challenging exercise, even under steady conditions. Geopolitical events have only added to the complexity facing economies worldwide.
