The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, inflation and interest rates.
New business formations have held up, but closures are also rising.
The election could alter the thriving relations between the U.S. and Europe.
The need for old age support is on the rise, as is its cost.
The latest S&P 500 rebalance introduced Dell and Palantir to the index, and Apple’s weight grew with annual float changes, signaling technology’s ongoing influence.
Our research shows that on average U.S. stocks performed well a year after the start of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle.
Tougher stances on trade are a point of bipartisan agreement.
Sports fans know that a lot can change in the fourth quarter of a game. So too for the U.S. economy, as a substantial labor action commenced the minute that calendars turned to the fourth quarter of 2024.
Policymakers have recognized China's slower economy.
Our experts explore the implications of wider S&P 500 earnings growth, potential Fed rate cuts, and the outlook for global equities and bonds amidst ongoing economic shifts.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
Tax cuts are popular but not affordable for most nations.
The next president will face a difficult fiscal context.
Fiscal responsibility is not a priority in this election.
Since mid-2022, when the Federal Reserve was in the midst of its aggressive hiking cycle, investors piled over $1.6 trillion into money market funds, which include Treasury bills.
The Northern Trust Economics team reacts to the Fed's decision and shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment and inflation.
MSCI boosted India’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and reduced China’s in its latest quarterly rebalance, continuing long-term trends.
With attractive valuations, emerging market equities look like a good opportunity. A factor investing strategy, designed well, may enhance performance and help manage some key risks.
How rapidly should the Fed cut rates?
States enter fiscal 2025 maintaining stable reserves and moderating fixed costs, yet we expect many will need to make modest spending cuts due to exhaustion of federal pandemic aid.
Passive fixed income index investing has evolved significantly over the previous decade, offering investors the flexibility to align risk requirements and investment goals. Learn more from our experts.
Labor shortfalls will become the norm in advanced economies.
The next U.S. president will face immediate fiscal challenges.
The BRICS Pay initiative aims to better integrate currencies for trade and facilitate cross-border transactions among its members.
We think the decline in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday may be more technical than fundamental.
Money can still be a factor in inflation.
A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.
The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.
While short-term fluctuations and sudden selloffs have tested the markets, key indicators such as corporate profits, employment data, and economic resilience have held firm.
We analyze Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments about the potential for rate cuts in September and beyond.
A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.
The 19th Century American author Mark Twain once said: “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.”
That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.
We explore how strong fundamentals and a resilient economy may position high-yield bonds as a potentially compelling choice in today’s fluctuating market.
Last week, we explored the old economic rules that falsely predicted an imminent recession. Losing those guideposts has complicated our efforts to craft an outlook.
Powell will hint at normalizing monetary policy, but at a measured pace.
The tea trade has lessons for today’s global commerce.
Previously reliable recession signals have not worked in this cycle.
The Bank of Japan needs to proceed cautiously.
Slower employment cements the case for the Fed to start a series of rate cuts.
North American trade is booming, but gains have been uneven.
The strong currency is neither a blessing nor a curse.
Today’s passive index investing requires active choices, as customization and innovations in index funds have resulted in new considerations for investors and the potential for greater control.
I chaired an international economics conference in Canada earlier this month. Delegates from all over the world attended to discuss the issues of the day. Following is an abridged version of the meeting summary that I offered during the closing session.
Western demand and monetary policy are having an important impact on economic prospects for the Asia-Pacific region.
Slower spending is a part of the return to normal economic conditions.
Metals from Mexico may have a much further point of origin.
Analysts periodically construct elegant algorithms that produce interesting conclusions, only to learn that the underlying information is flawed.
The Federal Reserve is in the pilot’s seat as the American economy approaches a soft landing. The runway is in sight, but some careful maneuvering will still be needed.
