The current equity bull market has been chugging along, enjoying unusually low volatility in recent quarters. The S&P 500® Index is on an extended bull run. The index hasn’t had so much as a 5% correction since February 2016, and it has gone without a 20% or greater pullback since March 2009.
Global growth has chugged along at a modest pace throughout 2017, and I expect more of the same heading into 2018. Read on for a visual snapshot of our key themes across the globe.
Does the high yield bond market offer enough value at this point in the credit cycle?
The Trump administration announced Jerome Powell as its choice for Federal Reserve Chair on November 2. The following are some thoughts on what we could expect from a Powell appointment.
China’s 19th Communist Party Congress is fast approaching. While the meetings are primarily a political event, they will shed some light on the party’s broad economic goals. There will also be major reshuffling across party leadership this year.
Has China’s renminbi unseated the Japanese yen as the new “safe haven” currency in Asia? Some market commentators have adopted this view given the renminbi’s recent strength, intensifying geopolitical tensions in Asia and Japan’s proximity to North Korea.
With limited evidence of excess in the global financial system and mostly low interest rates around the world, we remain optimistic about global economic prospects. The expansion is poised to continue, led by growth in emerging economies.
Eight years into its run, the global expansion looks poised to continue. What might this mean for asset markets?
Current estimates show a significant gap between the rate expectations of Wall Street economists and the Fed funds futures markets. The spread between their estimates for December 2019 is nearly 100 basis points, the equivalent of roughly four rate hikes. Over time, this gap in expectations is going to close one way or the other.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has been grabbing headlines recently, and with good reason: the Fed’s three massive bond buying programs, used to stimulate the US economy during and after the 2008 financial crisis, have left the central bank holding trillions of dollars worth of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS).