To say that value is difficult to find in the global equity markets would be an understatement. In fact, when we look at all 44 of the developed market regions and regoin/sectors, what we find is that in only ten of them is the median company trading at a discount to its own 10-year average multiple.
Back in December 2016, we discussed our expectation for lower longer-term US interest rates, which we used to justify an aversion to financial stocks. This expectation played out.
The essence of diversification is choosing assets that are not perfectly correlated with each other. The logic is simple enough: when one asset zigs, another zags. Years ago, finance scholars proved that a portfolio of securities is less risky than an individual holding and the idea of diversification as a risk management tool was born.
We met with Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan for a quarterly update right before the French presidential elections. In addition to calling Macron’s win, Peter outlined the three most important geopolitical shifts for US financial advisors to watch in the coming months.
A recent run of weaker economic data, highlighted by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) plunging to -32 from 58 in mid-March has caught the attention of the US Treasury bond market.
With the USD now about 5% off its January peak and having made a series of four lower lows and lower highs, it’s fair to say that the period of US dollar strength we witnessed for most of 2016 has come and gone.
From the middle of April through yesterday 10-year treasury rates rose from 2.17 to 2.40, prompting the obvious question of how high will they rise. The interesting thing about the recent slight backup in rates is that it has occurred within the context of slowing economic data.
In the table below we show the aggregate US Treasury maturity schedule. Due to stops and starts of the US Treasury issuing longer dated bonds over the last few decades, there is a huge gap in maturities available for investors.
So far in this earnings season, with over half of companies having reported, the energy sector has experienced the biggest earnings surprise. Earnings have come in almost 23% ahead of analyst estimates, nearly double the surprise of the consumer discretionary sector.