Search Results
Results 201–250
of 385 found.
Business Startups Flock To Just 20 US Counties - Here's Why
Most of you reading this are aware that new business startups have fallen below business closures since 2008. Since records have been kept, new business startups outnumbered business closures each year, often by wide margins. But not so since the Great Recession.
Fed Waves The White Flag On More Interest Rate Hikes
As I and others predicted last week, the Fed voted not to raise short-term interest rates at its June 14-15 policy meeting. In light of the terrible May jobs report on June 3, policymakers decided that the US economy is not strong enough for a rate hike at this point.
Pathetic May Jobs Report - New Questions About US Economy
Economists around the world were stunned by last Friday’s unemployment report which showed that a paltry 38,000 new US jobs were created in May, a fraction of the 160,000 new jobs that were expected in the pre-report consensus. It was the fewest number of new jobs in almost six years, reflecting broad hiring cutbacks that raise new concerns about US growth.
Fed: Almost Half of US Households Have Under $400 Saved
We begin today by looking at the recently released Federal Reserve study on the economic conditions of 50,000 randomly-selected US households. This annual survey attempts to capture a snapshot of the financial and economic well-being (or not well-being) of US households. Let me warn you upfront that some of the findings are really bad.
Fed Eager To Raise Rates In June, But Is It Serious This Time?
On Wednesday of last week, the Fed released the minutes from the most recent policy committee meeting on April 26-27. The official policy statement at the conclusion of the meeting suggested that the Fed was in no hurry to raise the Fed Funds rate anytime soon. Yet the actual minutes made public last week tell a very different story.
Americans Working Beyond Age 65 Hits New Record
A new report from the US Labor Department last week found that more Americans are working past the age of 65 than ever before. Part of the reason is that Americans are living longer and more people want to work beyond age 65. But the main reason is that most Americans have not saved nearly enough for retirement, and many have no choice but to keep working.
Weak April Jobs Report Highlights A Troubling Trend
Last Friday’s much weaker than expected unemployment report raised serious new questions about the economic recovery. While the headline unemployment rate held steady at 5%, the number of new jobs created last month was disturbingly lower than the pre-report consensus at only 160,000. Forecasters had expected 220,000 new jobs last month.
90% Of Americans Are Worse Off Today Than In 1970s
Today we will focus on a recent study from the Levy Economics Institute which found that 90% of Americans were worse off financially in 2015 than at any time since the early 1970s. Furthermore, for the vast majority of Americans, the nation’s economy is in a prolonged period of stagnation, worse even than that of Japan.
Second-Longest Bull Market Ever, Yet Investors Remain Skittish
If the US stock markets don’t collapse between now and Friday, this will be the second-longest bull market on record. Really. The current bull market began in March 2009 and will have lasted for 2,608 days (7.2 years) on Friday. If so, it will top the former second-longest bull market which ran from 1949 to 1956 (2,607 days). That’s quite impressive.
The Unprecedented Real Estate Bubble In China
Most economists and financial writers agree that the US has the strongest economy among the developed nations, even though we’re only growing at about 2%. Despite the slow growth, most don’t believe we are facing a recession anytime soon. However, most economists and financial writers also agree that a serious external shock could quickly throw the US economy into a recession and take most of the rest of the world with it.
Emerging Nations Continue To See Huge Capital Outflows
If you are wondering why the global economy struggled last year and so far this year, one only has to look at the trend in capital flows of emerging nations. After decades of positive capital inflows to most emerging economies, that trend has reversed sharply in the last few years.
Fed's Janet Yellen Does An About-Face On Interest Rates
On Tuesday of last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivered a surprising speech at the Economic Club of New York. Back in December, the Fed raised short-term interest rates for the first time in over eight years and told us to expect four more hikes in the Fed Funds rate in 2016.
Will The Fed Raise Rates Tomorrow? Probably Not
The Federal Reserve’s policy setting body, the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC), is meeting today and tomorrow, and there is widespread speculation over whether or not the Committee will vote to raise the Fed Funds rate a second time since lift-off in December.
The National Debt Tops $19 Trillion - 106% Of GDP
On Monday, February 1, the Treasury Department announced that America’s national debt had topped $19 trillion for the first time ever – and no one seemed to notice. That’s more than $58,000 for every person living in the US today, including children. When President Obama took office in January 2009 the national debt was at $10.6 trillion; since then the debt has soared by $8.4 trillion during his seven years in the White House — a record pace that the Congressional Budget Office says is likely to continue.
The Coming Home Equity Line of Credit Crisis
A crisis is brewing in the Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) market. HELOCs became all the rage back in the bubble-era years from late 2004 to early 2008 when home prices were skyrocketing. Millions of homeowners couldn’t resist the temptation to borrow against their rapidly increasing home equity, and banks and mortgage lenders were all too happy to accommodate.
Exploding Healthcare Costs Are Out Of Control
Today I want to address the soaring costs of healthcare, which are rising far more than the Obama administration and the Department of Health and Human Services will admit. While I personally don’t consider healthcare costs to be a political issue, many argue that it is indeed a political issue with regard to “Obamacare.”
Sub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy
Whew – January is finally over! Up until the last week or so, the downside carnage in January was the worst New Year’s stock market start in history. Thanks to last week’s rebound, it was only the worst New Year’s start since January of 2009 when the Great Recession was unfolding. Still, it was a hair-raising month for stock investors. And no one knows if the damage is over.
Multiple Worries Continue To Hammer The Stock Markets
The major US stock markets have turned in their worst January performance in history, as have many equity markets around the world – and the month is not over yet. As a result, we’ll keep our focus on what is driving this extremely volatile move.
Stocks Plunge Most On Record Last Week, Oil Down 10%
In the first week of 2016, US stocks plunged by more than in any other first week of January since records have been kept (before 1900). The Dow Jones Industrial Index fell over 1,000 points from 17,591 at the close on December 31 to 16,519 at the close last Friday – a loss of over 6% in one week.
Stocks Plunge Most On Record Last Week, Oil Down 10%
In the first week of 2016, US stocks plunged by more than in any other first week of January since records have been kept (before 1900). The Dow Jones Industrial Index fell over 1,000 points from 17,591 at the close on December 31 to 16,519 at the close last Friday – a loss of over 6% in one week.
Fed Set To Pull Trigger Tomorrow - A Good Thing Or Bad?
The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) which sets US monetary policy convened in Washington this morning for its last meeting of 2015. It is widely expected that the Committee will vote to hike the key Fed Funds rate for the first time in almost a decade before the meeting concludes tomorrow.
Retirement Savings Crisis Getting Worse, Not Better
As long-time readers know, one of my continuing themes over the years has been saving, and in particular saving for retirement. Record numbers of Americans are retiring every year and, unfortunately, most have not saved nearly enough for the retirement lifestyle they envisioned.
Eerie Similarities To Those Before 2000 "Dotcom" Bear Market
In the period leading up to the recession and bear market of late 2000-2002, the stock market was led by four large tech stocks: Microsoft, Dell, Cisco and Intel – the so-called “Four Horsemen.” These stocks continued to surge in 1999 and early 2000 even though much of the rest of the market was underperforming or moving lower. A severe bear market followed.
Economy Is Improving, Yet Most Americans Are Pessimistic
Today we tackle several issues. We start with the fact that several new surveys show that most Americans remain pessimistic about the economy and the direction the country is headed. This is despite the fact that the economy has been growing for the last five years, the unemployment rate is the lowest in seven years and the stock market has more than tripled since 2009.
U.S. Debt To Hit $20 Trillion, Poverty Remains Rampant
As long-time clients and readers are well aware, the explosion in our national debt has been one of my continuing themes over the last 30+ years, under both Republican and Democrat presidents. So today’s discussion is not a political issue, and it should worry us all.
China & Fed Lift-Off Dominate Market Trends - Why?
Is it just me, or does it seem like the global markets are preoccupied with two things: China’s economy and when the Federal Reserve will raise US interest rates? Sure, there are other things going on, but these two topics seem to be driving the financial markets more than any others this year.
Upcoming Debt Ceiling Fight Could Get Really Ugly
Here we go again – another debt ceiling battle will play out between now and November 5 when the Treasury says it will run out of “extraordinary measures” to fund the government without exceeding the current debt limit of just over $18 trillion. If the debt ceiling is not increased, the US government will default on its debt.
September Jobs & Manufacturing Reports Disappoint Again
As is becoming increasingly frequent, we will touch on several bases today, given that there’s so much going on these days. (Speaking of bases, How ‘bout them Texas Rangers!!) Hitting several topics in a single E-Letter makes it more interesting and fast-paced for me, and I hope the same is true for you. After all, YOU are what this is all about. That’s why I always value your input, positive or negative, so much.
The Economy Surges Higher, But Is It For Real?
Today we look at last Friday’s better than expected final report on 2Q GDP, which was revised from 3.7% to 3.9%. Best of all, this increase was largely due to increased consumer spending which accounts for almost 70% of GDP. Following the paltry 0.6% increase in GDP in the 1Q, this means the economy grew by 2.25% in the first half of this year.
On The Economy, Inflation, China & Odds For Fed Liftoff
The investment markets remain fixated on whether the Fed will hike interest rates for the first time in almost a decade on September 17. Stock market volatility spiked in late August and so far this month, with most global equity markets in “correction” territory. It remains to be seen if the latest stock market chaos will cause the Fed to delay lift-off until December or later.
Global Market Chaos Amidst Worries About China, Etc.
There is so much to write about today it’s hard to know where to start. Equity markets around the world are plunging on worries about China, a possible Fed interest rate hike next month, the worsening bear market in commodities, economic and currency weakness in emerging markets, etc., etc.
Population Growth & Productivity Headed in Wrong Direction
Today we’ll focus on some longer-term economic data which shows, unfortunately, that the US economy is in a multi-decade slide that will be very difficult to reverse. Population growth and worker productivity – the keys to sustained economic growth – are both in decline, trends that are not likely to change anytime soon.
Global Economic Slowdown - Implications For US Stocks
The global economy is rolling over to the downside for the most part. The question is, will this global slowdown take the US economy down with it? While no one knows for sure, that possibility simply cannot be ruled out. If the softening in the global economy leads to a slowdown in the US, that will almost certainly result in a weakening of our stock markets.
Thursday's GDP Report May Hold Big Surprises
The next few days should be an interesting time in the markets. The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting today and tomorrow and will release its latest policy statement at the conclusion of the meeting. While it is not expected that the Committee will vote to raise the Fed Funds rate at tomorrow’s meeting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has been talking hawkishly about a rate hike of late.
The National Debt Is Over $18 Trillion, Not $13 Trillion
In June, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its annual “Long-Term Budget Outlook” which concluded yet again that the trajectory of US federal debt is “unsustainable” and will lead to an unprecedented debt crisis in the years ahead.
China’s Stock Markets Imploded In June - Why?
While the mainstream media has been obsessed with Greece over the last month or so, there has been scant attention paid to the fact that China’s high-flying stock markets unexpectedly have plummeted in June and were down around 30% through the end of last week.
Stock Markets Have Stalled Since March – Now What?
I get asked fairly frequently what I think about the stock markets and specifically, whether I believe this unprecedented bull market can continue. My typical answer is, I don’t have a clue. I don’t understand how a country that has increased its national debt from $10.6 trillion in January 2009 (when President Obama took office) to over $18 trillion in January of this year could see its major stock markets more than double during the same period.
IMF Urges Fed Not To Raise Interest Rates Until 2016
On Thursday of last week, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its forecast for US economic growth this year from 3.1% earlier in the year to only 2.5% now. That is not surprising in light of the mainly disappointing economic reports we’ve seen recently, and other forecasters have been revising their estimates lower as well.
Our $1.3 Trillion Government-Assisted Student Loan Crisis
I have been wanting to address our exploding student loan crisis for over a year now, but the topic didn’t seem to fit into the normal themes I tackle. Yet in fact, it does: It represents just one more financial/debt crisis facing our country that will surely impact the economy and the investment markets at some point.
China Surpasses America As World's Largest Economy
For the first time in history, the People’s Republic of China’s Gross Domestic Product exceeded the GDP of America, as measured by purchasing power, in 2014. According to the International Monetary Fund, China’s purchasing power GDP hit $17.6 trillion last year versus $17.4 trillion in the US.
Why US Economic Growth May Disappoint Again In 2015
Our main topic today is how the US economy continues to disappoint expectations, and 2015 looks to be no exception. Forecasts for GDP growth this year continue to be downgraded, and there is at least a small possibility that the US economy is slipping into recession.
Problems The Media Ignored In The April Jobs Report
Today we’ll start with a look at last Friday’s unemployment report for April. If you read the mainstream media accounts, it was fantastic – the official unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest level since 2007. But as usual, if we dig into the internals of the report, we find that the results were much less than desired.
Results 201–250
of 385 found.
