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Results 251–293 of 293 found.

Europe at a Minimum Speed
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 5/2/13
Market forces are correcting the growth dichotomy between the European Unions core and periphery, thus improving the outlook for the region.

Questioning Quantitative Easing
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 4/25/13
Speculation over the reduction or expansion of quantitative easing largely amounts to market noise.

Signs of a Correction
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 4/17/13
Although the long-term economic picture remains sanguine, a number of global risks and economic results point to a temporary period of consolidation in equity markets.

The Ripple Effect of Abenomics
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 4/11/13
Monetary policy in Japan will continue to drive investors in that country to overseas markets, which will affect global asset prices and bond yields.

High Yield and Bank Loan Outlook
by Team of Guggenheim Investments, 4/10/13
While leveraged credit is far from the bargain it was four years ago, discussions of a bubble are premature at this point. Although we have entered the advanced stages of the rally, historical precedent and the continuation of accommodative monetary policy suggest that spreads, particularly those of lower-rated bonds and bank loans, may tighten materially from current levels.

Sound Fundamentals but Fatigue in the Markets
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 4/4/13
Although economic fundamentals continue to strengthen, the run-up in asset prices that has unfolded over the past half-year appears to be at risk of a temporary set-back.

A More Mature Bull Market
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 4/1/13
One of the characteristics of a more mature bull market, such as the one we are in today, is that asset prices become more susceptible to contractions due to negative news.

Cyprus as a Pandora’s Box
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 3/21/13
The attempt to levy a deposit tax on Cypriot accounts has the potential to further destabilize the European Union, with contagion risk elevating for other peripheral member states.

Excess Liquidity Finds a Home
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 3/14/13
U.S. home prices appear likely to continue to rise as the Federal Reserve injects more liquidity into the system. Given housings unique characteristics, this will have positive effects for consumption and growth.

When Will the Music Stop?
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 3/7/13
The investment environment is in transition, with uncertainty around policy moves contributing an increasing amount of uncertainty for asset prices.

An Ephemeral Swoon
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 2/28/13
Although volatility is likely to stay relatively high going forward, the recent move in the markets to risk-off mode appears to be a temporary condition.

Collateral Damage in the Currency Wars
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 2/21/13
Global competitive devaluation will continue to cause asset prices to rise in the near-term, but the broader implication of the policies will be increased volatility.

When Politics Trump Economics
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 2/14/13
The U.S. economic expansion continues, but increasing attention to political risks, and currency wars, in particular, indicate a period of heightened volatility could be ahead.

Echoes of 2004
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 2/7/13
Rising equities and tightening credit spreads define the near-term investment outlook, but this is not the first time we have seen this cycle play out in recent memory.

Crystallization at Davos
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 2/1/13
The euphoria among my fellow Davos attendees was palpable, but short and long-term risks for the world's advanced economies, including competitive currency devaluation, remain concerning.

Escape Velocity in the Economy
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 1/24/13
The broad improvement in U.S. economic data indicates that the economy is likely to continue to expand, supporting earnings growth and pointing to an eventual return of leveraged buy outs.

Signs of a Rotation
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 1/17/13
As yields continue to dwindle and risks in the fixed income market come into clearer focus, investors have begun to regard equities as a compelling alternative to bonds.

2013 Leveraged Credit Report: High Yield and Bank Loans
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 1/11/13
Record high prices, historically low yields and gradually deteriorating fundamentals have tempered expectations for the leveraged credit market. Generating above-market returns in 2013 will require an even greater emphasis on fundamental credit analysis to unearth opportunities in attractively valued segments of the market, such as upper middle-market bank loans.

A Brighter Picture for Jobs and the Economy
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 1/10/13
Promising fundamental developments suggest that U.S. economic expansion is likely to continue and equities will rise in the first quarter.

Restricted Room for Higher Rates
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 1/7/13
Interest rates should rise through 2013, however, the level to which they can increase will be limited by the Federal Reserve's ongoing attempt to stimulate activity in the housing market.

The Limits of Monetary Policy
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 12/20/12
With unemployment levels remaining stubbornly elevated, investors should not expect a reversal of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve in 2013.

Decoupling From the Eurozone
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 12/13/12
Recent positive data releases from the U.S. and Asia seem to indicate that global investors should not expect to be severely affected by the ongoing problems in the eurozone.

The Keynesian Depression
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 12/7/12
Five years have passed since the beginning of the Great Recession. Growth is slow, joblessness is elevated, and the knock-on effects continue to drag down the global economy. The primary difference between today and the 1930s, when the U.S. experienced its last systemic crisis, has been the response by policymakers. Having the benefit of hindsight, policymakers acted swiftly to avoid the mistakes of the Great Depression by applying Keynesian solutions. Like the last depression, we are likely to live with the unintended consequences of the policy response for years to come.

From a Fiscal Cliff to a Fiscal Speed Bump
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 12/6/12
More granular analysis of the line items in the fiscal cliff tells a less harrowing story than what Congress and the media are presenting. The official projections are showing scary numbers for the fiscal cliff, but when we dig into the details we see that the real impact will likely be materially less significant. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the fiscal cliff adds up to a total increase in tax revenue of $631 billion, which is approximately 4% of GDP. Going through the report line by line tells a different story.

A Turn in the Credit Cycle
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 11/28/12
Investors should understand the recent transition in the credit market and the implications it could have for the trajectory of asset prices over the long-term.

Too Low for Too Long
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 11/15/12
The Federal Reserve faces the risk of inducing a sell-off in bonds similar to that which occurred in 1994 when Dr. Greenspan tightened credit conditions after maintaining an artificially low interest rate environment for an extended period.

Make Way for Debt Mutualization in Europe
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 11/8/12
Hurdles and hold-ups are inevitable but recent policy developments in Europe indicate that the ECB and the Bundesbank are cooperating and greater federalization is likely.

Macro View: Natural Disaster Economics
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 10/31/12
"Super-Storm" Sandy will distort economic activity and data over the coming months.

Cheap Debt is Good News for Stocks
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 10/25/12
The eventual return of leveraged buy-outs (LBOs) and an uptick in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) should give investors further reason to be bullish on stocks.

Macro View: Europe's Glacial Move To Federalization
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 10/18/12
Uncertainty continues to weigh on European markets but the continent is still drifting toward federalization. Recent trends and political developments are constructive for an eventual return to growth for the region.

High Yield and Bank Loan Outlook
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 10/15/12
The leveraged credit market turned in an impressive Q3 with high yield bonds and bank loans returning 4.3 and 3.1 percent, respectively. Unprecedented accommodation from central bankers across the globe has alleviated much of the macroeconomic tail risk that we highlighted in last quarters publication. Presented with a seemingly insatiable demand for new issue bonds, issuers returned to the torrid pace of issuance that characterized the start of 2012 by raising a record $99 billion during the third quarter.

Macro View: China in Transition
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 10/11/12
With nominal growth rates falling faster than expected, the possibility of a hard landing for China country's economy appear to be increasing. More importantly, however, there is more to this situation than is immediately observable.

Return to Bretton Woods
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 10/10/12
The gold-convertible U.S. dollar became the global reserve currency under the Bretton Woods monetary system, which lasted from 1944-1971. This arrangement ended because foreign central banks accumulated unsustainably large reserves of U.S. Treasuries, threatening price stability and the purchasing power of the dollar. Today, central banks are once again stockpiling massive Treasury reserves in an attempt to manage their currency values and gain advantages in export markets. We have, effectively, returned to Bretton Woods.

The Faustian Bargain
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 8/22/12
In Goethe's 1831 drama Faust, the devil persuades a bankrupt emperor to print and spend vast quantities of paper money as a short-term fix for his country's fiscal problems. As a consequence, the empire ultimately unravels and descends into chaos. Today, governments that have relied upon quantitative easing (QE) instead of undertaking necessary structural reforms have arguably entered into the grandest Faustian bargain in financial history.

High Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - July 2012 Sector Report
by Team of Guggenheim Investments, 7/16/12
After a strong first quarter for high yield bonds and bank loans, the mixed performance of the second quarter has conjured up memories of 2011s volatility. While the lack of clarity in Europe and the looming U.S. fiscal cliff will continue to weigh on the economy, the current macro-induced price dislocations present attractive long-term opportunities for investors with patient capital.

High Yield and Bank Loan Outlook April 2012 Sector Report
by Team of Guggenheim Investments, 4/27/12
The leveraged credit market began the year strong with yields across the credit spectrum approaching historical lows. Investors should realize that it is no longer early in the credit market rally. We are coming into the seventh inning stretch and it is getting tougher to find opportunities. It is also important to watch for signs of overheating and to remain focused on fundamental credit work and security selection. As we look ahead, we continue to see room for further price appreciation as investor demand should remain robust, while new issue supply wanes from its record first quarter pace.

Winning the War in Europe
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 3/7/12
Given my view on the global liquidity glut, it probably will come as no surprise that I remain bullish on U.S. investments, including equities, high yield bonds, bank loans and other risk assets, as well as art and collectibles. I believe the United States has entered a period of self-sustaining economic expansion, driven primarily by the aggressive monetary policy of the Fed, which is now being reinforced by the ECB. U.S. growth is necessary to reduce domestic unemployment and to provide support to the struggling economies in Europe and Asia.

The Triumph of Optimism
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 1/3/12
Over the course of history there is a certain triumph of optimism. Betting against the column of progress of human history and the innovation of mankind has always proven to be a losing proposition. In the short run, there are times to become cautious, as the past five years have exemplified. Broad-based economic expansion and its attendant outsize investment returns follow contraction and panic just as the day follows the night. As dark as the current environment may seem, the sun will come up tomorrow. When it does, I believe it will shine favorably on the optimists of today.

Return of the Phillips Rule
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 11/4/11
The U.S. remains the least-dirty shirt in the bag. In fact, its looking comparatively better all the time. In the stock market, I believe fundamental and seasonal factors could push the S&P 500 to new highs before the end of the year, despite the drama in Greece. The market has discounted some pretty nasty events that I dont believe will come to fruition. When more certainty comes, especially regarding events in Europe, investors will likely look back and wish they had paid more attention to fundamentals rather than emotions. On a historical basis, stocks are attractively valued.

U.S. Payrolls Rise 103,000 in September, Jobless Rate at 9.1%
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 10/7/11
The jobs data this morning is very encouraging. Total jobs increased by about 202,000 after a gain of 103,000 in September and upward revisions of 99,000 jobs for August and July. Additionally, average hours worked rose by 0.1% of an hour and hourly wages grew by 0.2%. The increase in total hourly earnings alone will add significantly to private-sector income growth, which increases disposable income. Add to this the gain in payrolls and it is clear that the economy was gaining momentum as we closed the 3rd quarter. Making recession unlikely in the 4th quarter.

Keep Calm, Carry On
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 9/7/11
The markets overreaction has created an incredible opportunity in U.S. equities. In particular, I see value in high-dividend stocks. Many companies with strong cash flows and stellar credit ratings pay more in dividends than the yield on their bondsa situation that hasnt existed for such a large number of stocks since the 1950s. Without doubt, Europes problems indicate that further turbulence, even a retest of recent lows on the S&P 500, cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, for investors with 2- to 5-year horizons, price dips represent buying opportunities.

Europe's Cognitive Dissonance
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 8/1/11
The latest bailout program should be successful in one regard: buying more time. Unfortunately for Europe, time is no longer an ally, and it most certainly is not healing all wounds. Across the European periphery, economic data are degenerating as the calendar marches forward. Year to date, Greeces debt burden, budget deficit, cost of funding, and unemployment rate have increased. Its economic output and tax revenues continue to depress.

The Case for More Monetary Elixir
by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments, 5/26/11
Ive noticed a critical mass of groupthink growing around the expiration of the Feds asset purchase program dubbed QE2. After tripling its balance sheet in 2.5 years, the conventional wisdom is that the era of quantitative easing should now give way to the era of inflation. As a result, the foregone conclusion is that U.S. interest rates will rise and bonds will underperform significantly. While I acknowledge the potential for rising rates, I dont think the expiration of QE2 is the catalyst that most believe it to be. In fact, I believe U.S. rates should remain at historically low levels.
Results 251–293 of 293 found.