Things in Europe are bad and policymakers appear already to have fallen behind the curve. The reality is the ECB will need to purchase at least another 1.5 trillion in assets, and even that may not be enough to avert a severe slowdown.

U.S. stocks will likely move higher as pension fund managers go bargain hunting in an effort to put seasonal cash inflows to work.

After a volatile week in markets, U.S. equities are now oversold and investors should be alert for seasonal factors that should soon turn positive.

Early in Shakespeares "beth," Lord Banquo asks the prophetic three witches, "If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow, and which will not, speak then to me." Banquos turn of phrase reminds us that if a farmer planted the wrong grain he could yield a poor harvest, or worse, he might even starve. I thought about this recently when asked about the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Investors, like farmers, have a sense of the seasons that guides which grains, or investments, are more likely to yield favorable results. While I have

As the Federal Reserve maintains a highly accommodative monetary policy the central bank runs the risk of allowing the U.S. economy to overheat.

While the U.S. economy is gaining momentum, investors should nevertheless brace for volatility in the next few weeks.

As the U.S. Federal Reserve debates withdrawing accommodation the doves have the upper hand, but that does not mean they wont make a concession to hawks and hike sooner than the market expects.

Aggressive central bank accommodation from Europe to Japan and a dovish Federal Reserve bode well for equities and bond prices.

Markets do not move in straight lines, so yields could retrace to 2.5 percent in the near term after breaking out as low as 2.35 in early August. Ultimately, as rates head back toward 2 percent investors should use the rally to reduce interest rate risk.

The recent selloff in U.S. stocks is healthy and could set markets up to reach new highs by year end. Long- term investors should not fall victim to panic and sell.

Despite a disconcerting, growing consensus among investors, the likelihood of a sudden increase in U.S. interest rates is fairly remote for now.

The Feds not taking the punch bowl from the party, but investors should be wary of the hangover.

A few years ago, facing a world in crisis, central banks aggressively employed monetary policy to avoid catastrophe in financial markets. Now, they must be equally aggressive in fighting complacency.

Certain areas of leveraged credit are overvalued, particularly CCC-rated bonds and bank loans, but often some of the best profits come in the final phase of a cycle. Low yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and European sovereign debt have kept the global search-for-yield theme alive and have lured more capital into U.S. credit markets, helping the ongoing rally in high-yield bonds and bank loans, which gained 2.4 percent and 1.2 percent (as represented by the Credit Suisse High Yield Index and Credit Suisse Institutional Leveraged Loan Index) in the second quarter of 2014, respectively.

Investors should expect a quiet summer with markets rolling along, but with valuations becoming frothy now is a time to consider greater exposure to assets with higher credit quality.

As U.S. economic growth gathers pace, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries should shift higher over the next two to three years, eventually moving as high as 3.75-4 percent.

U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are dismissing as noise signs that inflation pressure is building, but perhaps they should be listening more closely.

The American economy is looking stronger, and with Europe improving and China working through its problems, the outlook for U.S. stocks and bonds looks positive heading into summer.

When bull markets mature, investors fear a coming crisis and today there are plenty of candidates from Europe to China to Thailand. Still, some of the best profits may lie ahead.

When bull markets mature, investors fear a coming crisis. Today there are plenty of candidates from Europe to China to Thailand. But bull markets climb a wall of worry and there are reasons now not to expect a looming crisis.

Now is the time for strong actions rather than words from the European Central Bank, but their actions could send more capital to the United States and push interest rates lower over the summer.

The world is distracted with fears of the next great calamity, but heading into summer U.S. financial markets are enjoying a remarkably positive environment.

Alarm bells are warning of a Chinese property bubble, but Beijing can avoid a crisis by allowing inflation to fix the problem.

After breaking out of their recent trading range, yields on U.S. Treasuries could now be heading significantly lower and the U.S. economy could enjoy fast economic growth in the coming months.

Its topsy turvy season as U.S. interest rates are falling when they should normally be rising and because 2014 might be the year to ignore the age-old advice to sell in May and go away.

The situation in Ukraine could become worse than markets now anticipate as Putin?s best interests might not be what investors expect.

The U.S. ?risk-on? trade is still in place, even as some leveraged credit is showing signs of overheating.

Turmoil in Ukraine, growth concerns in Japan, and weakness in U.S. equity markets are giving U.S. investors a short-term case of heartburn but none of this should undermine the overall case for optimism.

As the Fed considers the precise timing of tightening monetary policy, a key consideration will be how many Americans want to get back to work. Monetary doves found an olive twig amid the floodwaters last week when the labor force participation rate increased slightly.

U.S. investors are largely convinced that the Fed will raise interest rates in the middle of 2015 but sluggish inflation could push that eventuality back into 2016.

The Federal Reserve?s desire to be predictable should lead to an incremental path for the coming tightening cycle and that suggests increasing exposure to floating-rate instruments.

The noisy journey from winter to spring in the United States may mask the underlying strength in the U.S. economy. The risk-on environment should remain intact, despite international tensions.

Five years into the U.S. bull market this remains a ?risk on? environment, but with monetary tightening on the horizon now is a time to become more cautious and start thinking about what comes next.

Tensions in Ukraine and tapering speculation seem unlikely to derail rising U.S. equity markets and the positive outlook for U.S. credit.

Economic uncertainty from this winter soft patch will linger for months, but strong housing fundamentals should underpin a strengthening U.S. economy while low inflation augers well for stock prices.

The U.S. economy has stalled amid a winter freeze but the Federal Reserve is unlikely to act because warmer weather should bring a rebound, leading to higher U.S. stock prices and tighter credit spreads.

Extremely cold weather in the United States, a sell-off in equities and in emerging markets, and large swings in fund flows combined for a volatile start to the year. But none of this will derail the ongoing U.S. economic expansion, and investors should take advantage of this temporary weakness.

We will likely look back on the current turbulence in financial markets as a healthy correction, and an encouraging sign that policymakers are allowing markets to self-correct in a way not seen since before 2008.

It has been a hard start to the year, especially for emerging markets, but the latest dislocation is a healthy part of the cycle and the risk-on trade remains intact.

The focus at Davos has shifted to two new topics: growing income inequality as a risk to economic growth and social stability and the emergence of Africa as an economic force. Neither of these is a big surprise as neither is new. But the fact that these are the primary focus this year tells us that these topics will likely become more prominent in 2014.

This is likely to be another good year for risk-on investing, as an improving economic outlook supports stocks and bonds in an environment marked by less volatility than 2013.

Improving U.S. macroeconomic conditions should spur additional investor demand for high-yield bonds and bank loans, particularly with defaults exceptionally low. Still, investors should monitor trends pointing to an erosion of safety in leveraged credit.

Last January, the global economy faced myriad headwinds, choppiness lay ahead, and we expected plenty of volatility. Nevertheless, I said then that risk assets were the best choice for investors. Now, the headwinds of 2013 have largely dissipated, and the outlook is benign for risk assets for the first three to six months of 2014, if not longer.

What will Santa bring for Christmas...does he exist at all? Yes he does, his name is Bernanke and he has a stock market rally to share and good holiday cheer for all!

The Fed surprised many investors by announcing it will taper in January, but made clear that interest rates will remain near the zero-bound as forward guidance becomes its primary policy tool.

Financial markets have been discounting the end of tapering for months, and whether it happens in December or March is less important than the reality that the U.S. economy is recovering amid a global synchronous expansion.

Volatility induced by headline events has created attractive price dislocations in the municipal bond market, which may now present the best buying opportunity for investors since late 2010.

Major developed economies are all contributing to global economic growth, and this improving fundamental picture, coupled with ongoing monetary accommodation, bode well for risk assets.

As this bull market climbs its "wall of worry," we can see its underlying strength. Valuation concerns and the risk of a major correction appear overblown, as we should see a continued rebound in economic fundamentals over the coming months.

The Federal Reserve has started to highlight forward guidance as a way to keep interest rates lower for longer and get the exhausted hamster off the treadmill of quantitative easing. We still think tapering remains farther off than most investors expect.