Lower July CPI inflation is likely the beginning of a trend.
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Guggenheim Investments and Guggenheim Partners Global CIO joins Bloomberg TV on Fed Day to discuss the Fed’s 75 basis point hike, and signs that the economy is already in recession.
Managing Director Justin Takata discusses the technical and fundamental drivers of value in investment grade corporates, and U.S. Economist Matt Bush addresses recession timing and the possible progression of policy.
The latest data suggest that we may already be in a recession.
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
The outlook for credit amid rising inflation, monetary tightening, and war in Europe.
Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners Global CIO, joins CNBC to share his views on the consequences of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening.
The risks of tightening into a downturn.
Get insight into the current macroeconomic environment and its implications for the markets in an insightful panel discussion featuring Maria Giraldo, Strategist and Matt Bush, Economist from Guggenheim Investments’ Macroeconomic and Investment Research Team. This informative session will explore how Guggenheim sees the inflation outlook, where Federal Reserve policy is heading, and how investors should be positioned in this environment. Thoughts on the crisis in Ukraine and outlook for a post pandemic environment will also be given.
A properly diversified credit portfolio should have exposure to both high-yield corporate bonds and bank loans.
The resurgent virus should keep a lid on Treasury Yields.
Falling demand will help limit the extent of more price increases.
The COVID Delta Variant’s Looming Threat to Risk Assets.
A revival of the Obama-era Build America Bonds would raise funds with less taxes.
June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) again surprised to the upside, adding fuel to headline-writers’ panic about inflation spikes and market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will need to act soon to rein in prices.
Examining the Fed’s announcement to sell its SMCCF holdings.
The spike in core CPI is a one-time adjustment as the economy reopens.
Strong earnings growth, low default volumes, upward rating migration, and tighter spreads in the recovery phase of the credit cycle.
Supply chain disruptions may be a near-term challenge, but base effects will slow inflation next year.
Get insight into the current macroeconomic environment and its implications for markets. This informative session will explore why Guggenheim believes the markets’ inflation concerns are overdone, how the Fed’s new framework virtually ensures several years of rates at zero, why investors should own duration and why a strong economy also bodes well for credit. Thoughts on the opening year of the Biden administration and the continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will also be given.
Despite a strong March 2021 jobs report, full employment remains far away.
The summer months tend to deliver stronger-than-average returns for bonds.
A Green New Deal should not be viewed as a big government program, but as an opportunity to reinvent vast swaths of the U.S. economy while pursuing the laudable goal of carbon neutrality
Fed Chair Jay Powell is giving conflicting guidance to bond investors.
Even as credit spreads have narrowed, further value remains.
Investors’ reach for yield puts downward pressure on 10-year Treasury rates, likely rendering the current yield unsustainable.
Our positive 2021 economic outlook, combined with better-than-expected company fundamentals, supports strong credit performance and spreads.
The relative calm we feel in the markets right now isn’t the end of the storm, it is just the eye.
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, discussed his outlook for markets and the economy with CNBC’s Brian Sullivan during the Milken Institute 2020 Global Conference.
As a result of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to shore up credit markets, the leveraged credit sector has delivered stellar performance since the lows in March.
Among the many significant developments in the world that investors should be considering as part of their long-term thinking, one of the issues that concerns me the most is China.
The pandemic creates a good opportunity to make Social Security more sustainable.
The Fed has increasingly unorthodox policy options if the economy remains mired in a protracted downturn.
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, and Mike Milken, Chairman of the Milken Institute, discuss at a Goal 17 Partners web event the government and private-sector response to COVID-19.
The support to corporate America during this economic shutdown risks the creation of a new moral obligation for the U.S. government.
The unintended consequences and moral hazard of insufficient and misdirected policies.
Global capital markets are not pricing in the growing likelihood of rising EM corporate defaults.
Allocating capital as the pandemic progresses; emerging markets may be next domino to fall.
The consequences of policymakers returning to the same tools employed in the financial crisis.
There are three key areas where the allocation requirements of passive fixed-income vehicles have an impact on the market.
We entered into the current crisis with a whole financial system that had been incentivized by policymakers to take on excessive levels of debt and leverage. The turmoil we are seeing right now is the result of the unwinding of this leverage.
Markets often overshoot, and just because things are cheap doesn’t mean they can’t get cheaper.
Without the right programs, this shortfall in credit availability will increase and it will further deepen the crisis.
The Fed still has a number of tools at its disposal that haven’t yet been implemented.
In this remarkable period in our history, we must renew our resolve to the commitment to always do that which is true and noble for all. Together, we can meet this historic challenge.
If I had written a commentary on how 4,000 people dying from the flu would topple global financial markets, I think I would have been deemed insane. Yet today that is exactly the story.
The cognitive dissonance in the credit market is stunning. I recently have had the feeling that I’m living peaceably in Britain during the 1930s while on the continent the Germans were building weapons, expanding their army and navy, and opportunistically grabbing land.
Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2020 and beyond.
Ultimately, investors will awaken to the rising tide of defaults and downgrades.
Why active has the potential to outperform passive in fixed income.