Last week, we discussed a short history of Qatar and its geopolitical imperatives. This week, we will analyze the events precipitating the blockade, the blockade itself, the GCC’s demands and the impact thus far on Qatar. We will examine how the situation has reached a stalemate and, as always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
On June 6, several members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) announced a sweeping blockade of Qatar, also a member of the GCC. The GCC members enforcing the blockade, led by Saudi Arabia, issued a list of 13 demands which Qatar rejected.
Saudi Arabian King Salman recently named his son, Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), as the new crown prince, replacing Prince Nayef. The move was momentous but not necessarily unexpected. Initial reports suggested the change was consensual, but recent articles make it clear Prince Nayef was ousted.
We update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year.
Last week, we offered background on the situation with North Korea, who appears on track to developing a nuclear warhead and a method of delivery that would directly threaten the US. In Part II, we discuss what a war on the peninsula would look like, including the military goals of the US and North Korea.
Tensions with North Korea have been escalating in recent months. The regime has tested missiles and claims to be capable of building nuclear warheads, and thus there is rising concern about an American military response.
Park Geun-hye’s ouster as president of South Korea was due to a scandal involving her close confidant accused of seeking bribes from chaebols, a group of family-owned multinational conglomerates that dominate the economy.
At last month’s NATO meetings, President Trump called the Germans “bad” for running trade surpluses with the US, causing a minor international incident. Although such incidents come and go, it did generate a more serious question…are German policies causing problems for the world? In this report, we review the saving identity we introduced in last month’s series on trade and discuss how Germany has built a policy designed to create saving. We discuss the Eurozone and the impact that German policy has had on the single currency. Lastly, we address the question posed in the title of this report.
This is the final report of our four-part series on trade. This week, our discussion on trade continues with a look at the relationship between trade, employment and inflation. We also conclude the series with market ramifications.
In this multi-part report, we offer reflections on trade to provide insight into how to use macroeconomics to judge the veracity of certain claims.