Over the past 70 years, rising government debt generally has been accompanied by weaker economic activity. But it's not a simple relationship.
Our outlook is still positive, but it may be difficult to replicate the strong returns of the past few quarters.
Changes in China's economic policy tend not be communicated prior to implementation. What can we expect from China's stock market in response to any shifts?
There have been several big changes in the municipal bond market lately. Here's what you should know.
The Federal Reserve suggested that interest rates likely will move lower, but perhaps not as quickly as markets had been expecting.
Between adjustments in Fed policy and a coming presidential election, it's going to be an emotional year, but historical data shows staying invested is the best course for investors.
The Federal Reserve weighs the data while investors wonder: When will rate cuts begin?
Sentiment data is beginning to match relatively strong "hard" economic data.
Global elections may lean towards nationalist policies that could hinder trade in goods via tariffs, but also boost growth in domestic industries to counter inflationary effects.
India's prospects are bright, but the country faces significant headwinds. Here's what to know as an investor.
Although a strong economy has changed expectations about the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts, we still see room for the Federal Reserve to cut by three-quarters of a point this year.
Investor sentiment and stock market valuations are getting increasingly stretched as indexes trek higher, but solid underlying breadth has been a positive offset for now.
The second-largest stock market has captured the interest of investors, supported by stronger, more broad-based earnings, and incentivized by Japan's fiscal and monetary policies.
Short-term bond yields are high currently, but with the Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates investors may want to consider longer-term bonds or bond funds.
The chip sector comes into sharp focus ahead of a key earnings report, with signs of divergence in the sector.
Walmart leads the way as major retailers start weighing in on a positive year for consumer spending. But will it hold true as individual companies report results?
Relatively hot inflation reports might be blips, but they reinforce why the Fed's rate-cutting cycle might be more gradual, which could be a better backdrop for stocks.
Market folklore provides an easy, but inaccurate guide for investing in today's interconnected and complex market. Indicators based on economic or market behavior may be preferred.
While focus remains on when the Fed will start cutting rates, history suggests other factors must be looked at when assessing forward stock market performance.
As expected, the Fed held rates steady in January, but importantly downplayed the likelihood that rate cuts will start as soon as March.
Market expectations have established a high bar for central banks' rate cuts. Any disappointment like stronger inflation or economic growth could spark market volatility.
Credit quality in the muni market likely has peaked, but we believe states' strong rainy-day funds and other attributes will lend stability in the near term.
After 2023's price cuts and tougher competition, Tesla is set to report late Wednesday. Lower demand and a big, one-time jump in used EVs could drive a very different 2024.
While the S&P 500's all-time high hasn't been accompanied by other parts of the market (notably, small caps), further gains are possible if breadth firms up.
Bank loan income may decline if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. That doesn't mean investors should avoid them altogether, but it's important to understand the risks.
Tech sector stocks gained more than 50% last year, fueled by AI and signs of improvement in the cloud and chip markets. Upcoming Q4 results could give investors clues into 2024.
The election outcome is unlikely to change the status quo for the Taiwan Strait, U.S.-China relations, or global markets which have seemed to price in geopolitical risk.
Economic data has provided encouragement for both stock market bulls and bears.
With the Federal Reserve poised to begin cutting interest rates this year, the dollar may drift generally downward. However, its performance against individual currencies may vary widely.
Earnings season starts Friday as major investment banks report, and the focus is on rates.
While headline payroll growth was relatively strong in December, weaker details under the surface continue to paint a mixed labor market picture.
Our current 10-year outlook highlights better opportunities for cash and bonds, primarily driven by higher starting yields, and a steady outlook for stocks.
Today's uncertain economic climate is putting particular pressure on four market segments. Here's what to watch out for in the months ahead.
There are many risks for 2024 including those that are an ever-present part of investing and not unique to the outlook for any particular year. We've highlighted our top five.
The decision to hold the federal funds rate steady was in line with expectations, but the accompanying statement and projections indicate a shift toward easing in 2024.
We see potential opportunity in municipal bonds in 2024, although there may be more volatility.
Although some volatility may continue, we believe interest rates have peaked. We expect lower Treasury yields and positive returns for investors in 2024.
Our outlook for 2024 is for a gradual U-shaped recovery composed of seemingly chaotic movements in economic data with turning points in policy rates and earnings growth.
Inflation is a touchy subject, and given there are many ways to analyze it, investors should take note of the nuances that exist within the data.
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Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.
Reasons prompting concern around investing in China may be improving, but volatility is likely to remain characteristic of Chinese stocks in 2024.
The bill will keep the federal government running into early 2024 but likely increases the risk of a shutdown in February.
Like some advances earlier this year, the market's current surge hasn't been defined by strong breadth underneath the surface—which will be key for a sustained, durable advance.
Treasury yields have dropped as weak economic data suggests the Federal Reserve may begin cutting the federal funds rate target earlier than previously expected.
If you're close to retiring, beware of the little-known sequence-of-returns risk that could take a huge slice out of your retirement income.
The Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) model will be the growth story of the next decade. Its track record of success shows that independence could deliver long-term competitive advantages. According to Cerulli, other channels are expected to shed investment advisor market share in the coming years and the independent RIA model will become the benefactor. As this momentum continues to build, now is the perfect time to join the movement.
Policy changes at the Bank of Japan could potentially reverse capital flows, shift global yields higher, contribute to a stronger yen, and increase the value of Japanese stocks.
