Halfway through 2018, the S&P 500^® Index, which represents the broad U.S. stock market, had gained 2.7%—a relatively modest return that belied the drama of the first six months of the year.

The noise surrounding the stock market is getting louder, resulting in more violent moves in equities. Much of the sound and fury is best ignored by long-term investors, but there are growing risks to the bull market in the form of rising trade disputes and the possibility of a central bank mistake. For now, we believe the secular bull market is intact, but are growing more concerned and urge investors to remain disciplined and diversified.

We continue with our theme of “it’s getting late” when looking ahead to the second half; with important and rising risks to weigh against the rewards.

Despite a recent modest pullback in U.S. stocks, and a sharper one in international markets—reflecting both trade worries and the recent strength in the U.S. dollar—we don’t believe it marks the beginning of a more severe correction. Risks of a prolonged trade dispute have risen but it’s too soon to declare war; while the possibility of a positive resolution that would likely be a tailwind for equities. For now, a healthy U.S. economy is an offset to those growing worries. Threats to the current bull market have risen, and they include this being a midterm election year—which have historically been accompanied by larger-than-average maximum drawdowns. We continue to espouse discipline and diversification; but for now it’s in the context of an ongoing bull market.

I spend a lot of time on the road speaking to our investors and advisors and one of the common questions I get during the Q&A sessions is, “What keeps you up at night?” Aside from having an 18-year old daughter—and being a chronic insomniac anyway—my reply usually centers around debt and the burden it has and will continue to place on our economy.

U.S. stocks have moved toward the top of the recent range but volatility is likely to rise at times during the summer as investors deal with various global geopolitical headwinds. Further strength in the U.S. dollar would likely exacerbate the volatility—particularly within emerging markets. But limited signs of pending recession risk—at least in the United States—should keep the path of least resistance for the stock market higher. That said, patience and discipline are more important than ever in the face of sometimes ominous-sounding headlines.

The May employment report was gangbusters, with strength across most components, including payrolls, the unemployment rate and wage growth. Can it continue?

Stocks have rebounded along with economic data, could we be setting up for a solid summer?

Leading economic indicators have accelerated since morphing from recovery to expansion, so let’s see what that means for the economy and stock market looking ahead.

Liz Ann Sonders draws connections between past and present to explain the action of the stock market and how it’s connected to economic fundamentals.

A more challenging investing environment requires a more disciplined and patient investing approach. The next few months could continue to be choppy, but a U.S. and/or global recession still appears a ways off, which should keep the bull market—here and globally—intact.

Since tax reform was passed the corporate earnings jump has been extraordinary…but is the good news already priced in to stocks?

Headwinds for stocks have risen but tailwinds also exist, resulting in a more tumultuous environment. We believe there are enough positives to keep the bull market going but gains are likely to be slower in coming, volatility is likely to remain elevated and discipline to a long-term plan will be crucial. Avoid overreacting to the barrage of news and focus on the items that could change the actual fundamentals of the economy.

The yield curve has flattened significantly recently and has elicited headlines of impending doom, heightened recession risk and investor consternation…is the worry overdone?

There have been some violent market moves recently, but it’s important for investors to keep things in perspective.

Headlines have been focused on tariffs, trade and the FAANG stocks; but underneath the surface may be a more important shift toward tighter financial conditions.

The stock market environment has changed since January, making it more challenging but also creating potential opportunities.

Stocks erupted in a “tariffs tantrum” last week only to reverse course on hopes the U.S.-initiated trade spat won’t turn into a trade war.

Goldilocks reappeared last week with an extremely strong jobs report that gave stocks another reason to cheer the ninth birthday of the bull market.

Stock market volatility appears to be largely a consequence of the economic environment returning to a more “normal” status.

Every month in the immediate aftermath of the release of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) I put together a small deck together for Schwab’s Operating Committee highlighting the overall data and some of the key takeaways.

In a record-breaking sprint from all-time highs to an “official” correction, the “short vol” trade unwinding exacerbates an initially fundamentals-driven decline.

Volatility has spiked, jolting investors out of complacency, but that doesn’t mean any dramatic action is needed.

In what was Janet Yellen’s final meeting as Fed Chair, rates were left unchanged, but the outlook for inflation was elevated in the statement.

Stocks have ripped higher to start the year and “melt-up” has become a popular descriptor; but it’s time to judge whether the flame’s too hot.

U.S. stocks may have entered a melt-up phase but for now it is relatively well supported by earnings growth; and although sentiment is extended, behavioral measures indicate still some skepticism. However, given elevated valuations, and the aforementioned overly optimistic sentiment, volatility is likely to increase and more frequent pullbacks are possible. The bull should continue to run, but likely with a bit more drama, so it’s important to stay diversified and disciplined around your long-term asset allocation.

Tax reform—or better put, tax cuts—should provide a boost to the economy, but some enthusiasm-curbing is in order regarding the details and timing.

Perhaps it’s premature (or even a jinx) to mention that if the S&P 500 ends December in the green, it will be the first time in history that U.S. stocks—as measured by that index—were up during every one of the 12 months.

Investors are cautioned not to extrapolate 2017’s performance into 2018, and we expect more frequent bouts of volatility. The global bull market is intact, supported by solid global growth and strong corporate earnings. But with the expectations bar now set quite high heading into next year, pullbacks are increasingly possible. Discipline is important looking ahead.

The U.S. stock market has bucked incessant negative news and now appears to be in melt up mode; meaning discipline is more warranted than ever.

The book is closing on third quarter earnings, which were stellar; but is it time to worry about a bar set too high in 2018?

Earnings season, both in the United States and globally, has been solid, while economic growth has accelerated across much of the globe—all supportive of an ongoing global bull market. Elevated optimism and complacency could lead to pullbacks, but we believe it would be in the context of an ongoing bull market.

My last report was on the acceleration in business capital spending (capex) that is likely to be an economic highlight in 2018. Part-and-parcel of capex is productivity—officially known as non-farm labor productivity—which has averaged less than 1% annualized growth during the current expansion.

Surprising no one, the Fed kept rates unchanged; but strongly hinted that the market’s correct about the near-certainty of a December rate hike.

Global and domestic economic growth, along with a solid earnings picture and a potential tax reform tailwind, suggest investors should remain at their target equity allocations. Pullbacks are possible but a recession doesn’t appear to be in the cards in the near term, which historically has meant the risk of a pullback turning into a bear market is low.

Since the initial surge out of the global financial crisis, capital spending has been range-bound; but there’s ample reason to expect a new upcycle.

It’s been 10 years since Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. first launched the Schwab Fundamental Index Funds. Fundamental Index strategies were among the first to hit the market within the strategic beta universe.

U.S. stock indices have continued to push to record highs, with little apparently able to throw them off course. The grind higher has pushed through natural disasters, the Las Vegas tragedy, domestic political failures, international political tensions, and missile tests and threats from North Korea—an ample “wall of worry” for stocks to climb.

With wage growth picking up and the labor market even tighter, it’s time to put even traditional measures of inflation back on the radar screen.

The fourth quarter is typically an active one and we don’t think this one will be any different. Solid economic growth and good corporate earnings should allow the bull market to continue but we may experience bouts of volatility and/or pullbacks. Stay diversified and disciplined around your long-term objectives.

Stocks have bucked all manner of fierce storms—figurative and literal—and optimism (and possibly risk) has risen as a result.

September has historically been a tough time for stocks and there are multiple potential pitfalls to look out for this year as well. But economic and earnings growth—both domestic and global—continues to look healthy and we expect the bull market to continue. Remain globally diversified, but also disciplined around target asset allocations; and use any volatility for rebalancing purposes.

Our hearts go out to everyone affected by Harvey and now Irma. I did little over the weekend except sit glued to the TV watching Hurricane Irma coverage. That's because I have a home in Naples, FL, on one of the southern intercoastal waterways.

Action is about to heat up as summer comes to an end but investors should remain cool. Geopolitical threats, domestic politics, and Federal Reserve actions all have the potential to add to volatility and heightens the risk of a pullback or correction. But healthy economic growth and strong corporate earnings lead us to believe that the bull market has legs.

I'm often asked how I invest my own money and often imbedded in the question is whether I prefer active or passive investing strategies. My answer is always both, and at Schwab we generally believe investors can benefit from traditional active management; e.g. mutual funds; alongside newer passive vehicles; e.g. exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The latest bout of volatility illustrates why investors should stay focused on the longer-term. Risks for a more substantial pullback in the near-term still exist, as valuations remain elevated; but we believe solid U.S. and global economic growth, strong earnings, low inflation and still-ample global liquidity should allow the bull market to continue.

Last week, President Trump promised to unleash "fire and fury" on North Korea, which prompted its leader Kim Jong Un to see that bid and raise it to a direct threat against the U.S. territory of Guam. Collectively at Schwab (Schwab Center for Financial Research as well as our experts in Washington, DC) we believe the likelihood of military action remains low.

U.S. equity indexes continue to post record highs and the proverbial "wall of worry" appears to be losing bricks. The high expectations for earnings season have largely been bested, the U.S. economy continues to trend in a "Goldilocks" zone—not too hot, nor too cold...

Having recently upgraded our view on developed international markets (hat tip to Jeffrey Kleintop), we are now recommending investors keep their allocations to all three major equity asset classes—U.S., developed international and emerging markets—in line with strategic targets.

Much to no one's surprise, the Federal Reserve held off on raising short-term interest rates; keeping the fed funds rate in a range of 1.00-1.25%, in a unanimous vote. Although they did not say anything explicit, there were a few niblets on which to chew in the statement accompanying the meeting.