This probably isn’t the start of a bear market, but it may feel like less a bull market compared with last year’s charge.
U.S. economic growth is accelerating as vaccinations rise and social-distancing measures ease, but hopes for a long-lasting spending boom may hit a couple of speed bumps. Vaccine rollouts in major countries are proceeding at different speeds, but stock market performance contradicts what vaccination data would seem to imply for investors. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted longer-term Treasury yields have risen as investors anticipate stronger economic growth.
Is the stock market disconnected from the economy? Perhaps, but less so lately.
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” -Investor and mutual fund manager Sir John Templeton
What’s a “zombie company”? You may have heard the term in the financial media recently and wondered if it’s something you should be worried about.
Accelerating growth is generally a good thing for stocks, evidenced by bond yields and stock prices typically rising and falling together.
The late-February spike in U.S. Treasury bond yields sent ripples throughout the global markets. As yields surged to the highest level in a year, stocks and commodities sold off sharply, while the dollar rallied.
Looking at the latest economic data reveals V-shaped recoveries in many goods-based indicators; while services has more catch-up to do.
The Year of the Ox looks bullish for China with economists and analysts forecasting GDP growth of 8.1% and earnings growth of 18% for the MSCI China Index. But February holds key developments for China that could impact this outlook, including stock delistings, trade, and COVID-19.
Hope is high that economic growth will accelerate as more people are vaccinated against COVID-19, but so far economic data has been lackluster. Meanwhile, bond investors are expecting inflation despite signs that the economic recovery’s momentum may be stalling. Why does everything seem so disconnected?
This is a new type of exchange-traded ETF that is built differently from a traditional ETF.
As quickly as it soared to the moon, GameStop came back down to earth; but the lessons learned are key to turning day trading speculators into longer-term investors.
The COVID-19 crisis opened up cracks in the muni market, but we don’t expect those cracks to alter the reality that municipal bonds can be a relatively conservative investment option. Many municipalities are under stress, but that’s not a reason to avoid munis, in our view.
When investors talk about “the stock market” they are most often referring to an index that tracks stocks only in their home country. This “home bias” is evident when it comes to the make-up of investors’ stock portfolios. Investors around the world tend to hold mostly domestic stocks.
As expected, the Fed kept rates unchanged; but did make clear its view that vaccines are key to the trajectory of the economic recovery.
Bank loans offer some of the highest yields in the current interest rate environment. We believe their unique characteristics may prevent many investors from considering them, but it may be a mistake to overlook them.
As a review of the year that was, today’s report analyzes and dissects the nature of the K-shaped recovery in both the economy and stock market.
Their decisions in the coming months could have an impact on the markets and investors.
Joe Biden takes the Presidential oath of office this week in the U.S., marking the end of a long U.S. political contest; a year of political challenges is just getting started overseas.
The new year kicked off with a sharp rise in Treasury bond yields, despite unprecedented political turmoil and signs that the economic recovery is slowing.
U.S. stocks have continued to climb amid optimism about a vaccine-led economic recovery, but it’s a narrow path—buoyant investor sentiment could easily be deflated by bad news. Although global economic growth has struggled, an acceleration in vaccinations in major countries could support stronger growth in the second quarter.
It has been an extraordinary start to 2021 in the nation's capital. The images of a mob protesting the outcome of the presidential election by overrunning the U.S. Capitol building on January 6th are already seared into the nation’s collective memory. A week later, the House of Representatives, for the first time in American history, impeached a president for a second time.
Last week was shocking and extraordinarily sad; and as if Americans didn’t have enough with which to contend, it was capped off by a weaker-than-expected December jobs report.
LIBOR is still being retired, just a little later than initially expected.
While Election Day is two months in the rearview mirror, the election is not over. A runoff election in Georgia on Tuesday, January 5th, will determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, a historically unprecedented scenario that will have a profound impact on President-elect Joe Biden's ability to move his policy agenda forward in the first two years of his presidency.
After a powerful rally for stocks for much of 2020, let’s take a look at the biggest potential downside risks for investors in the year ahead. While none of these scenarios make our base case for 2021, a review of the top investment risks in greater depth may be prudent as we enter the New Year.
As expected, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to keep the federal funds target rate in a range of zero to 0.25%; where it’s been since March. A majority of FOMC officials maintained their forecast that the rate would be kept near zero at least through 2023.
September 2 was a momentous day on several fronts. It was the initial pop to all-time highs for both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ; after an impressive run from the March 23 pandemic low. It was also a turning point in terms of market leadership; reflecting budding optimism about a turn-for-the-better in economic data.
Encouraging news about COVID-19 vaccines has boosted hope for stronger economic growth, kicking off a rotation in stocks and equity sectors as investors look to a brighter future. However, near-term volatility is possible, as we’re not yet out of the coronavirus tunnel.
Key Points
A COVID-19 vaccine could start being administered globally this week.
The planned rollout is good news that has lifted the stock markets around the world. But the reality of the rollout faces risks that could extend the time frame for mass immunizations.
We expect markets to be volatile in coming months while the threat of new lockdowns weighs against the hope of recovery, although we believe we may be on the verge of a period of international stock market outperformance.
Given all the municipal bonds to choose from, how do you decide which ones should make up the core of your portfolio? With $3.7 trillion of muni debt outstanding1 spread among tens of thousands of issuers, the choice may seem daunting, but we’ll help you break it down.
With COVID-19 vaccines on the horizon, the longer-term economic outlook appears brighter.
We expect the municipal bond market to return to a sense of normalcy in 2021.
It was a bumpy ride for corporate bond investors this year. After the sharp, pandemic-driven selloff in February and March, total returns for most corporate bond investments have climbed their way back into positive territory.
Ten-year Treasury bond yields may rise as high as 1.6% in 2021, reflecting prospects for faster economic growth.
This week’s report will look at last week’s market moves in the wake of positive vaccine news (with additional and even better news today); but will also review our most recent tactical recommendation change.
Actual third-quarter earnings may be less important than what business leaders say about their expectations.
Investors looking past the presidential election for the next market-moving news break were rewarded earlier this week when Pfizer announced that it had made some headway in the fight against COVID-19.
Stock market performance during the transition period between outgoing and incoming U.S. presidents tends to be more dependent on the economic cycle than the election results.
The Fed did not add to this week’s uncertainties and kept rates unchanged, while also providing no new information with regard to its balance sheet.
Investors likely have many questions about the 2020 election. Votes were still being counted late Wednesday, but here are answers to some of the most frequently asked questions we’re hearing.
While the election remains too close to call, investor attention will soon turn back to Capitol Hill, where senators will reconvene on Nov. 9 and House members on Nov. 16 for what is known as a “lame duck” session of Congress.
There are many major policy decisions that will influence the outlook—trade, energy, taxes and budget deficits, and pandemic relief. However, it’s difficult to assess how these issues will be addressed post-election, and even more unpredictable how the market will react.
For the third time since the COVID bear ended its short havoc, U.S. stocks went into pullback mode—culminating in the worst week since March. The virus itself continues to be a culprit; with another surge in cases and hospitalizations; although not for deaths, at least not yet. The lack of a fiscal relief package and heightened election uncertainty are also to blame.
Stocks tumbled again on Wednesday, as worries about rising COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations sent investors toward the safe havens of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar.
The “end of globalization” is a phrase that has come up a lot lately. Stories written about deglobalization have soared this year with the pandemic.
Investor sentiment is telling a mixed story about the market’s ascent since the March low; begging the question, will the skeptics converge with the optimists?
Given current low yields, some investors wonder whether bonds can continue to provide diversification in a portfolio. Here’s why those fears may be overblown.
The potential economic and market impacts a “Blue Wave” for the U.S. election could have on five key areas: taxes, labor, the environment, oil and trade.
