Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 146.6, up 1.4 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 4.17%, up from 3.67% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.3, up from 1.3 the previous week.
RecessionAlert has launched an alternative to ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Growth indicator (WLIg). The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite. The latest index reading came in at 22.2, up from 20.3 the previous week.
This morning's release of the September Existing-Home Sales increased from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million units. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.30 million. The latest number represents a 0.7% increase from the previous month and a 1.5% decrease year-over-year.
Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later. The monthly data points are preserved as faint dots. The trends are illustrated with 6-month moving averages of data divided by the Census Bureau's mid-month population estimates.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for September decreased to 128.6 from 128.8 in August and saw its first decline in over a year. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) came in at 115.7, up fractionally from the previous month.
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 27.9, up from last month's 23.8 and has been positive for fifteen consecutive months. The 3-month moving average came in at 23.5, up from 20.7 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 46.4, a decrease from the previous month's 55.2. Today's 27.9 headline number came in above the 22.0 forecast at Investing.com.
Today's seasonally adjusted 222K new claims, down 22K from last week's revised 244K, was better than the Investing.com forecast of 240K. From the release: "Claims taking procedures continue to be severely disrupted in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as a result of poweroutages and infrastructure damage caused by Hurricanes Irma and Maria."
The latest price of home heating oil nationwide is $2.66, down less than a penny from last week. Supply is also down from last week.
We've updated this series to include Friday's release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the September monthly update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $37,346, down 12.9% from 44 years ago.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for September new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.215M was a decrease from 1.272M in August and above the Investing.com forecast of 1.245M.