The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 18.9, down slightly from last month's 19.5 and has been positive for thirteen consecutive months. The 3-month moving average came in at 22.0, down from 28.6 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 42.3, an increase from the previous month's 36.9. Today's 18.9 headline number came in above the 18.5 forecast at Investing.com.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for July increased to 128.3 from a revised 127.9 in June and is currently at another all-time high. The 0.3 percent month-over-month gain matched the 0.3% increase forecast by Briefing.com.
Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later. The monthly data points are preserved as faint dots. The trends are illustrated with 6-month moving averages of data divided by the Census Bureau's mid-month population estimates.
Today's seasonally adjusted 232K new claims, down 12K from last week's number, was better than the Investing.com forecast of 240K.
The Philly Fed's Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (hereafter the ADS index) is a fascinating but relatively little known real-time indicator of business conditions for the U.S. economy, not just the Third Federal Reserve District, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Thus it is comparable to the better-known Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.
Today's report on Industrial Production for July shows a 0.2% increase month-over-month, which was below the Investing.com consensus of 0.3%. Industrial Production peaked in November 2014, only one point higher than its pre-recession peak in November 2007. The year-over-year change is 2.19 percent, up from last month's YoY increase.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for July new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.223M was a decrease from a revised 1.275M in June and below the Investing.com forecast of 1.250M.
We've updated this series to include Friday's release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the July monthly update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $37,239, down 12.3% from 44 years ago.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for July new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.155M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.220M and a decrease from the previous month's revised 1.213M.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for July released this morning showed an increase over the revised June figures. Headline sales came in at 0.6% month-over-month to one decimal. Today's headline number was above the Investing.com consensus of 0.4%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.5% MoM. Figures were revised going back to June 2016.