The Federal Reserve System consists of twelve Federal Reserve Banks, twenty-five branches, and the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. Each bank serves a larger regional district. Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The average of the five for April is 19.8, down fractionally from last month's 19.9.
The latest new orders number at 0.7% month-over-month (MoM) was below the Investing.com consensus of 1.2%. The series is up 4.5% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods came in at -0.2% MoM, which was below the Investing.com consensus of 0.4%. The core measure is up 4.6% YoY.
Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of home ownership continues to decline. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q1 2017. The seasonally adjusted rate for Q1 is 63.6 percent, down fractionally from 63.7 in Q4 2016. The nonseasonally adjusted Q1 number is also 63.6 percent, fractionally above the Q2 number and its highest since Q4 2015.
Earlier today the Census Bureau posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments. In the charts the gray line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau's monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index for All Commodities, chained in today's dollar value.
The latest index came in at 7.0, down from last month's 20.0, which indicates expanding activity but at a slower pace. The future outlook decreased to 17.0 from 32.0 last month. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Today the National Association of Realtors released the March data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales in March maintained their recent high level, but momentum slackened slightly in most of the country as dearth supply weighed on activity."
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month. At this point, before the close on the last day of the month, all three S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — unchanged from last month's triple "invested" signal. Three of the five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), and PowerShares DB (DBC) — are signaling "invested", unchanged from last month's triple "invested" signal.
Today's seasonally adjusted 257K new claims, up 14K from last week's revised number, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 245K.
In response to a standing request, here is updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the Tuesday, April 25 close, almost 100 days into the new administration. It will be interesting to see how the market fares in the wake of President's economic policies.
If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.