The role of the human psychological cycle in driving stock and bond prices is well understood and pre-dates behavioural economics. There are elements that suggest we may be going through another period of ‘irrational exuberance’ as several long-term investors seem stuck in the mindset that ‘There Is No Alternative’ (TINA) to US equities.
We have heard lots of commentary on the student loan repayment issues facing almost 44.5 million Americans. Some of these commentaries are correct but there are others that miss the mark.
Government bonds or stocks? If you were picking an asset class to outperform over the next 18-24 months, which would you choose?
Monetary and fiscal policy are typically thought of as independent tools that central banks and governments use to manage the economy.
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Elle Caruso and Karrie Gordon discuss the likelihood of continued strong returns for semiconductor ETFs.
There aren’t many bullion investors who haven’t thought about using their stash to buy groceries one day.
The Agg is supposed to be to bonds what the S&P 500 Index is to equities. But it is an insufficient gauge for measuring the bond universe.
The fraction of enterprise value of large US companies represented by tangible assets — things like real estate and inventory — has fallen from 50% to 20% over the past 15 years.
As businesses worldwide adopt technology, the innovation of AI may result in market leadership changes, global economic growth, and investor opportunities.
One of the scarier financial factoids making the rounds this year is that local and regional banks hold 70% of US commercial real estate debt.
Bankers are warning that tougher capital rules being proposed by the Federal Reserve and other US regulators will push more risks out of well-regulated lenders and into markets.
For the years following the Lehman crisis, the Fed put was the norm. Exceptionally loose monetary policy ensured risk assets had a safety net. But central banks were unable to rehabilitate the real economy while governments kept their belts tight.
All of a sudden, the short-volatility trade is back on Wall Street as billions of dollars pour into options-selling ETFs like never before.
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Karrie Gordon and Nick Peters-Golden discuss the case for trading in the old 60/40 portfolio for an alts augmented 50/30/20 portfolio.
It could take just a 1% move in the S&P 500 — up or down — every day for a week for the rally in US stocks to come under significant pressure.
After an unprecedented pause that started in March 2020, student loan repayments will finally resume in October 2023.
A member of Putnam's Fixed Income team since 2007, Onsel Gulbiten analyzes macroeconomic issues, including inflation, interest rates, and policy developments.
Private credit is an asset class that has blossomed alongside the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. From sovereign funds to family offices, many people want to put their money in. Asset managers are more than happy to latch onto this enthusiasm.
Believe it or not, Emerging Markets (EM) local currency bonds have been outperforming global fixed income asset classes for the past 18-months.
While inflation dipping below 3% has been welcome news for investors, it’s still early to claim that inflation has been reined in. Our simple analysis shows that inflation rising in the latter half of 2023 would not be surprising.
Home Bias, Yield Hunters & Thematics - The Canadian Perspective. A conversation with Dave Nadig, Financial Futurist at VettaFi and Daniel Straus, MD, ETF Research & Strategy at National Bank Financial.
We talk frequently about the way central banks and governments affect the economy. In the grander scheme of things, though, whatever the Fed does is more like throwing a hand grenade into a large building. Yes, you’ll make some noise and cause some damage. People may be hurt. But the building won’t care, and the owner will fix it.
Office Commercial Real Estate faces challenges ahead, with high vacancy rates, declining rental income, and potential defaults. Investors should seek opportunities in more resilient sectors; multifamily properties for better risk-adjusted returns amidst a weakening economy/hawkish Fed.
BlackRock Inc. is poised to become a bigger buyer of assets that banks unload to improve their capital and liquidity, after concluding that the industry faces years of upheaval brought on by high-interest rates, stringent new regulations and possible consolidation.
Global corporate bond returns just hit their highest level this year on bets that the inflation crisis is coming to an end. Some investors say this may be as good as it gets, with dangers lurking in credit markets for the second half.
We’ve known for a long time that CPI-adjusted lifetime guarantees are the ultimate bedrock for a secure retirement.
Appealing yields and cautious markets.
When asked about how tighter regulations affect banks’ business models, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon commented that it was great news for hedge funds and private equity firms.
The second quarter was characterized by a debt ceiling showdown (which perversely provided a boost to liquidity) and by a big spurt in tech stocks.
While we agree with the enthusiasm for AI that has helped the market rally, investors may be better served by patience than by chasing recent risk-on sentiment.
The bond market’s re-energized bulls may want to dial down their excitement because their fortunes hinge on whether an abstract, almost elusive number, is as low as they assume.
Silicon Valley venture capitalists are racing to get into artificial intelligence companies — including investors who once bet big on crypto.
In his latest paper, James Montier lays out a framework for spotting what he terms “slow burn Minsky moments,” or the economic vulnerabilities associated with the build-up of private sector debt.
Shifting the risk-reward ratio in your favor.
The second half of 2023 has officially begun, meaning it’s time for us to reflect on the commodities market so far this year. Lithium increased by 10.81%, making it the best-performing commodity and one of only two that recorded a positive return, the other being gold.
Investment banking work has all but dried up and the private equity industry bears a lot of the blame. The bad news for those involved is that managers of buyout funds might struggle to get their flywheels spinning again even when the current economic uncertainty starts to clear up.
The recent demise of Silicon Valley Bank and a few other regional lenders is forcing policymakers to revisit a difficult question: What should the government do to prevent such damaging bank runs? Should it yet again expand deposit insurance?
We see different and abundant opportunities in the new macro regime. We go granular within asset classes, regions, and sectors – and harness mega forces.
Central bankers think they can handle a situation and fire the artillery. It always has an effect… but ultimately it is rarely the effect they wanted. Doing nothing at all might have been better but that wasn’t an option. They’re trapped in an endless spiral of intervention.
India is rapidly transforming into a formidable global superpower and an increasingly attractive destination for investor capital. Amid rising geopolitical tensions and the impact of disruptive technologies, India's story is a beacon of opportunity in a challenging landscape.
There’s a mantra in markets that you’re not supposed to “fight” the Federal Reserve. Policymakers fight inflation by tightening “financial conditions,” and broad market rallies tend to work against that objective.
Many economists have been forecasting a recession for 2023 due to tightening monetary policy. But that recession has not arrived yet.
Imagine a new digital environment where our data is portable and democratized, challenging the current monopolies. Web3 promises to be such an environment, using blockchain technology.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sees diminishing risk for the US to fall into recession and suggested that a slowdown in consumer spending may be the price to pay for finishing the campaign to contain inflation.
Surging interest rates have made the coupons look meager, the Federal Reserve is shrinking its exposure, and the regional banking crisis left the regulator with about $100 billion of the bonds to sell.
This week I saw something I haven’t in a while: a brochure from Strutt & Parker advertising a price reduction on a rather charming Notting Hill house. It is now a mere £4,750,000 ($6 million) — down around 6% from its original listing price.
Though recent data suggests China's re-opening growth has slowed, it's likely temporary. As China's recovery continues, it may have implications for U.S. inflation and rates.
The intensity of the chatter around AI has led to some concerns that the space might be in a bubble or that interest in it could wane. However, a look at flows into ETFs that focus specifically on AI suggests that investor engagement remains strong.
The Eurozone just entered a recession as the region posted two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The manner in which it entered a recession is a bit quirky.
The punditry knows that clients dread uncertainty. They count on it. They prey on it.
