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And That's the Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
When Ben Bernanke talksactually he doesnt even have to talk to move the markets. For the past few weeks, investors have speculated about the next Fed moves and the possibility of a tapering of the $85 billion a month bond purchase program, perhaps as early as next week. Markets have been jittery (to put it mildly) as global stocks have fallen (thanks Japan) and international bond rates have been on the rise. Investors began over-analyzing each economic release, each comment by a Fed official, each forecast by a regulatory body or related agency.
A Sweet Find on an African Adventure
The heart of Africa has been beating strong in recent years due to elevated commodity prices and resilient domestic demand, despite the global economic slowdown. Among the sub-Saharan African countries, Sierra Leone was the fastest growing country last year, according to the World Bank. Its economy experienced growth that is as rare today as Fancy Red diamonds. GDP increased a whopping 18 percent.
The Risk of Government Policies and the Rationing of Retirement
by Jason Hsu of Research Affiliates,
In late April, a group of leading economists and investment practitioners assembled in La Jolla, California, for Research Affiliates 2013 Advisory Panel. Our theme this year touched on two topics that have been front-and-center in recent public debates: the risk of government intervention and the potential rationing of retirement.
The Wisdom of Crowds
Are markets efficient? This is a debate that has been on-going for decades. In one corner you have the proponents of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. In their world alpha does not exist, or at the very least it is not sustainable. In the other corner you have the supporters of behavioural finance who see investors as being mostly irrational and suffering from all sorts of behavioural biases which create alpha opportunities galore. Out of this long lasting stand-off a new paradigm is emerging called the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis which aims to reconcile the two.
Fed Advisory Council Drops A Bombshell
Last Friday afternoon, the Fed released the minutes from a May 17 meeting of the Federal Advisory Council (FAC). The Council is a group of 12 influential bankers from across the country who meet periodically and give the Fed Board of Governors input regarding the economy, moneyary policy, etc. The minutes from the latest FAC meeting clearly indicate that the bankers are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the Feds unprecedented quantitative easing policy. To my knowledge, no one in the mainstream media has reported on what you will read here today.
What's the Answer to Unprecedented Policies and Ultralow Rates?
So what?s the answer to unprecedented central bank policies that have been driving stocks higher and ultralow rates? I believe investors need to stick to a strategy that includes dividend-paying stocks that offer the opportunity for both income and growth.
This Is What Real Bubbles Look Like
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
With the stock market currently doing so well, numerous articles are popping up playing the bubble card. Personally, I dont believe we are anywhere near bubble levels for equities, at least in the general sense. I do think there are certain stocks that are currently overvalued, but very few that I would describe as dangerously so. To me, the true definition of a bubble is when prices have become so ludicrously high, that the dangers of a catastrophic loss large enough to be considered almost permanent become imminent or at least quite obvious.
And That's the Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
All good things must come to an end (hopefully just temporarily). After a nice month-long weekly winning streak, stocks gave back some ground as investors over-analyzed Fed comments and worried about future monetary policy. (The stimulus will end at some pointthats not necessarily a bad thing.) Japan took the over-analysis the hardest as its market suffered a serious setback, though the rally for the year had been significant and some watchers expected a pullback at some point (just not all in one day).
The Biggest Loser Wins
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
While the worlds economies jockey one another for the lead in the currency devaluation derby, its worth considering the value of the prize they are seeking. They believe a weak currency opens the door to trade dominance, by allowing manufacturers to undercut foreign rivals, and to economic growth, by fighting deflation. On the other side of the coin, they believe a strong currency is an economic albatross that leads to stagnation. But the demonstrable effects of currency strength and weakness reveal the emptiness of their theory.
Bifurcation Blues
Bifurcation. A very technical sounding word. It merely means ?a division into two parts?, which is what we are witnessing in many areas related to investment, both macro and micro. And it is exhibiting to value investors those areas to avoid and the most attractive to embrace. And giving rise to a wide range of disparate opinions among economic and investment professionals as to what outcomes are likely. Needless to say, we have our own strong views.
Do Annuities Reduce Bequest Values?
by Joe Tomlinson,
The widely held view that annuities reduce bequest values is too narrow. Adjustments can be made in retirement portfolios to reduce retirement risk without sacrificing the value of ones bequest. Heres how retirees can purchase annuities, adjust allocations in remaining assets and achieve improved retirement outcomes.
All Japan, All the Time
This week we again focus on Japan. Their stock market has been on a tear, and their economy grew 3.5% last quarter. Is Abenomics really the answer to all their problems? Is it just a matter of turning the monetary dial a little higher and voila, there is growth? Why doesnt everyone try that? And what would happen if they did?
Housing Finally Breaks Free
by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent,
Housing, which for so many years represented everything bad about the credit crisis, is finally beginning to have its day back in the sun. Trends in housing markets around the country are improving, to the benefit of the overall economy. It appears that trend is set to continue.
Skills, Education, and Employment
It is graduation time, and this morning finds me swimming in a sea of fresh young faces as a young friend graduates, along with a thousand classmates. But to what? I concluded my final formal education efforts in late 1974, in the midst of a stagflationary recession, so it was not the best of times to be looking for work. It turned out that I had a far different future ahead of me than I envisioned then. But I would trade places with any of those kids who graduated today, as my vision of the next 40 years is actually very optimistic.
Central Banks Steal the Spotlight Once Again
Central banks around the world continue to provide increased stimulus to their respective economies. Increased conviction over pro-stimulus policies comes in light of recent flaws found in the Reinhart, Rogoff January 2010 paper, which suggested that government debt of more than 90% of GDP is detrimental to economic growth. The latest week brought another round of news in the world of central banking, although it seems the number of options left on the table is running short. What central bankers hope for now is that economies will finally enter recovery mode.
Looking at Leverage Outside the Box
Yield-seeking investors have been boxed in by the near-zero US rate environment, and it seems like there are few ways out. But for those willing to set aside preconceived ideas about the word leverage, the lesser-known leveraged loans category may be an alternative to consider in the credit space. Mark Boyadjian, senior vice president and director of our Franklin Floating Rate Debt Group, spoke to us recently about what these often-misunderstood vehicles are and what yield-seeking investors need to know before they take the plunge.
Employment Trending the Right Way and the DC Two-Step
by Gregg Bienstock of Lumesis,
Spring is in the air and it has nothing to do with the lovely weather we are experiencing here on the east coast. Congress both houses have done something for the American public. FAA, sequester, flight delays we can fix that! While I would usually take a cynical swipe at Congress (something like, did they act because they, too, were impacted by their own stubbornness), Ill let well enough alone and simply pass on a heartfelt thanks. Perhaps this is the start of something.
Many Of My Dividend Growth Stocks Have Become Overvalued, What Do I Do Now?
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
To me, theres almost nothing better than finding a great company that I truly want to own at a fair valuation, or better yet, undervalued. In the long run, it has been my experience that this usually leads to outsized future returns, especially if you buy stocks when they are undervalued at the time. But there is quite often a side effect that can prove very disconcerting. Once an undervalued stock starts moving to the upside, momentum will often carry it above what prudent fair valuation would dictate.
The Race of Our Lives
by Jeremy Grantham of GMO,
Our global economy, reckless in its use of all resources and natural systems, shows many of the indicators of potential failure that brought down so many civilizations before ours. By sheer luck, though, ours has two features that might just save our bacon: declining fertility rates and progress in alternative energy. Our survival might well depend on doing everything we can to encourage their progress. Vested interests, though, defend the status quo effectively and the majority much prefers optimistic propaganda to uncomfortable truth and wishful thinking rather than tough action.
A Playbook for Investors: How to Shoot, Score, Win
So, in the competitive spirit of the NBA playoff season, I?ve gathered a series of plays that investors can use to shoot, score and win during this year?s market. I?m happy to say they include all the elements of an exciting game, including a comeback kid, an upset and an underdog.
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Equilibrium
The bedrock of GMOs investment philosophy is reversion to the mean. We believe that capitalism should cause the return on capital to be in line with the cost of capital, and that assets that embody similar risks should offer similar long-term returns. These beliefs, in turn, guide our assumptions that equities should trade at replacement cost, that the long-term return to equities should be approximately the same as their normalized earnings yield, and that assets without long return histories should have similar valuations and equilibrium returns as related assets with longer histories
Will Abenomics' Ensure Japan's Revival?
by Team of Thomas White International,
According to a World Bank (WB) report, global growth in 2013 will remain sluggish as economic recovery in the developed nations is likely to be slow. Lower business and consumer confidence, government spending cuts, as well as high rates of unemployment may delay the recovery, the report says. The report has also noted that developing nations may experience slower growth due to structural and monetary policy challenges.
Investment Risk is the Chance of Underperformance
The measures currently used within the investment industry to capture investment risk are really mostly measures of emotion. In order to deal with what is really important, lets redefine investment risk as the chance of underperformance. As Warren Buffett has said, focus on the final outcome and not on the path travelled to get there.
Strategy for a Second Gear Economy
by David Kelly of J.P. Morgan Funds,
American investors could be forgiven for feeling just a little confused. One week after the stock market posted its strongest first-quarter gains since 1998, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the weakest monthly job growth in nine months. Real GDP growth was just 0.4% in the fourth quarter but appears to have been much stronger in the first. So is the economy getting stronger or weaker, how is the Federal Reserve likely to react to it and what, if anything, should investors do about it?
Japan Steps into the Void
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
In the years following the global financial crisis, economists and investors have gotten very comfortable with very high, and seemingly persistent, government debt. The nonchalance may be underpinned by the assumption that globally significant countries that can print their own currencies cant get trapped in a sovereign debt crisis. However, it now appears that Japan is preparing to put this confidence to the ultimate stress test.
Gold Buyers Get Physical As Coin and Jewelry Sales Surge
Even with the gold price dropping, why are gold coins selling at a premium? Its Economics 101: The coin supply is limited and the demand is high. This buying trend isnt only occurring in the U.S. In Bangkok, Thailand, for example, crowds of buyers were filling stores, eagerly waiting in multiple lines to purchase gold jewelry and coins.
How a Landslide Shifts Copper Supply
The U.S. mining industry was dealt a devastating blow as Kennecott Utah Coppers Bingham Canyon Mine experienced a pit wall failure causing a massive landslide with rocks and dirt covering the bottom of the mine pit. Its a miracle no one was hurt due to the vigilance of its owner, Rio Tinto. The landslide is just one example of how quickly and unexpectedly the supply and demand factors facing the red metal can shift, which underscores the need for nimble active management.
Assume a Perfect World
Waiting for our forecasts to be wrong before we adopt a yet another solution based on a temporary fix of yet another forecast that turned out to be wrong is no way to run a railroad, unless you want your train running off a cliff. I applaud the recent attempts in DC to come to a solution on the deficits and budget, but where are the leaders who want to get real with those forecasts?
Looking for Warm Milk and a Blanket
by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital,
Conspiracy theory economists would say that the Government fudged the data weaker so that it could help sell $60-70 billion in U.S. debt this week. Whatever the outcome, last week we had a perfect storm of high expectations for the data + very below average March weather + the payroll tax hike impact + the upcoming sequester worry. Economic data will move violently from month to month, but unfortunately last week, it was mostly in the WEAKER THAN EXPECTED direction and investors did not hesitate to bring pain on risk assets.
The Road To Omaha: Being a Business Owner
In this five-part series leading up to the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, we discuss the keys to Warren Buffetts investment success. We believe these keys are available to all of us and are a part of the discipline of stock-picking at Smead Capital Management.
First Quarter Market Commentary
by Mark Oelschlager of Oak Associates,
After a strong 2012, the market continued its ascent in the first quarter, shrugging off macro issues like the Sequester and the Cyprus bail-in. The S&P 500 rose roughly another 10%, reaching a new all-time high. Normally when stocks are moving higher at a fast rate, it is the economically sensitive sectors that lead and the defensive ones that lag. But the first quarter saw the reverse, as the top three performing sectors were the three traditional defensive ones: healthcare, consumer staples and utilities.
Europe Stumbles to a Cyprus Solution
by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett,
After several late-night meetings and considerable angst, the members of the eurozone have settled on something for Cyprus that looks very much like a typical bankruptcy. It is comical in a way that people worked so hard to arrive at an already widely known, well-established process. Still, this result may have value. Because Europe through these four years of crisis has strived to tailor settlements for each new challenge, it has always left people in doubt about each outcome, particularly where the pain would fall.
Every Gold Coin Has Two Sides
Just as every coin has two sides, every data point that doesnt meet expectations usually has an upside somewhere. For instance, although the gold price has fallen with the strengthening U.S. dollar, the yellow metal is appreciating in Japanese yen. So when negative news about the economy came out this week, along with the U.S. Labor Department reporting that the country added only 88,000 jobs in March, investors found reasons to be encouraged.
Absolute Return Letter: The Need for Wholesale Change
The seeds of the next crisis have probably already been sown as a consequence of the lax monetary policy currently being pursued. Frustrated with the lack of direction from political leaders, most recently witnessed in the handling of the crisis in Cyprus which was a complete farce, central bankers from around the world are likely to demand change, but politicians will have to be pushed into a corner before they will respond to any such pressure. Hence nothing decisive will happen before the next major crisis erupts.
Learning from Douglas H. Bellemore One Great Teacher and Investment Counselor
by Kendall Anderson of Anderson Griggs,
Sometimes, I think those of us in the investment business strive to obtain the abilities of Star Treks Mr. Spock. Spock, the half-human half-Vulcan, learned to ignore the human emotions buried inside his self and use logic in order to solve the problems before him. Just think, what great investors we could be if we could simply control our human nature. As a Vulcan, we could construct an investment portfolio that would produce higher returns than any human could produce.
Flying High on Borrowed Wings
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
After selling off an astounding 56% between October of 2007 and March 2009, the S&P 500 has staged a rally for the ages, surging 120% and recovering all of its lost ground too. This stunning turnaround certainly qualifies as one of the more memorable, and unusual, stock market rallies in history. The problem is that the rally has been underwritten by the Federal Reserves unconventional monetary policies But for some reason, this belief has not weakened the celebration.
A Fresh Milestone
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Last Thursday the S&P 500 (SPX/1569.19) notched a new all-time causing Ms. Scaggs to pen the aforementioned story in Fridays Wall Street Journal. I was particularly interested in a sentence further down in the article that read, The rally in stocks comes as investors warm up to stocks for the first time in years. That prose sparked memories of an era gone by.
On the Fed, the Keystone Pipeline & the War On Jobs
The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) met as scheduled last Tuesday and Wednesday to review monetary policy and its massive quantitative easing effort. The official policy statement released at the end of the meeting on Wednesday was little changed from those in previous months.
You Can't Be Serious
I admit to being surprised by Cyprus. Oh, not the banking crisis or the sovereign debt crisis or the fact that its banks were eight times larger than the country itself or even the fact that the banks were bloated with Greek debt that had been written down. I wrote about all that a long time ago. What surprised me was that all the above was apparently a surprise to European leaders.
Results 2,701–2,750
of 2,960 found.
