At its annual summit in Johannesburg this week, the bloc of five emerging countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—announced plans to expand for the first time since 2010.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the US central bank is prepared to raise interest rates further if needed and keep borrowing costs high until inflation is on a convincing path toward the Fed’s 2% target.
Central bankers generally believe in an abstract phenomenon known as the neutral real rate of interest, or r-star. It’s the inflation-adjusted rate that should prevail when the economy is balanced with price increases subdued and the labor market healthy.
The prospect of global interest rates remaining higher for longer is tipping the case for many investors to switch into bonds from stocks.
Working with Complex Products- A Market Making Perspective A Conversation With: Andres Rincon, Director, Head of ETF Sales & Strategy, TD Securities and Dave Nadig, Financial Futurist, VettaFi
Artificial intelligence (AI) is capable not just of disrupting higher education but of blowing it apart. The march of the smart machines is already well advanced. AI can easily pass standardized tests such as the GMAT (Graduate Management Admission Test) and the GRE (Graduate Record Examination) required by graduate schools.
Paul O’Neill, a former US Treasury secretary, said that if America ever dropped the strong-dollar policy, he would hire a brass band at Yankee Stadium to mark the proclamation.
The role of the human psychological cycle in driving stock and bond prices is well understood and pre-dates behavioural economics. There are elements that suggest we may be going through another period of ‘irrational exuberance’ as several long-term investors seem stuck in the mindset that ‘There Is No Alternative’ (TINA) to US equities.
We have heard lots of commentary on the student loan repayment issues facing almost 44.5 million Americans. Some of these commentaries are correct but there are others that miss the mark.
If they’d been offered today’s economy a year ago – with inflation downgraded from emergency to mere headache, still-low unemployment, and growth that’s slowed without stalling – the world’s top central bankers would’ve taken it like a shot.
Government bonds or stocks? If you were picking an asset class to outperform over the next 18-24 months, which would you choose?
Monetary and fiscal policy are typically thought of as independent tools that central banks and governments use to manage the economy.
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Elle Caruso and Karrie Gordon discuss the likelihood of continued strong returns for semiconductor ETFs.
There aren’t many bullion investors who haven’t thought about using their stash to buy groceries one day.
It is a radical suggestion, no doubt, but some analysts predict that AI might enable the US economy to achieve an annual growth rate of 30%.
The Agg is supposed to be to bonds what the S&P 500 Index is to equities. But it is an insufficient gauge for measuring the bond universe.
The fraction of enterprise value of large US companies represented by tangible assets — things like real estate and inventory — has fallen from 50% to 20% over the past 15 years.
As businesses worldwide adopt technology, the innovation of AI may result in market leadership changes, global economic growth, and investor opportunities.
One of the scarier financial factoids making the rounds this year is that local and regional banks hold 70% of US commercial real estate debt.
Bankers are warning that tougher capital rules being proposed by the Federal Reserve and other US regulators will push more risks out of well-regulated lenders and into markets.
Across Wall Street, there’s growing relief that the Federal Reserve — at long last — may be done raising interest rates. But that doesn’t mean turbulence in the bond market will soon become a thing of the past.
For the years following the Lehman crisis, the Fed put was the norm. Exceptionally loose monetary policy ensured risk assets had a safety net. But central banks were unable to rehabilitate the real economy while governments kept their belts tight.
Today we’ll continue reviewing Neil Howe’s magisterial new book, The Fourth Turning Is Here, focusing on the Millennial Generation’s important role in the coming crisis. Then we’ll think about what the crisis may look like. Finally—because I always try to look on the bright side—we’ll consider what Neil expects in the “First Turning” that will follow.
A team of scientists claimed to have created a breakthrough material that could superconduct electricity at room temperatures and ambient pressure. But then people started trying to replicate the experiment.
All of a sudden, the short-volatility trade is back on Wall Street as billions of dollars pour into options-selling ETFs like never before.
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, Karrie Gordon and Nick Peters-Golden discuss the case for trading in the old 60/40 portfolio for an alts augmented 50/30/20 portfolio.
It could take just a 1% move in the S&P 500 — up or down — every day for a week for the rally in US stocks to come under significant pressure.
After an unprecedented pause that started in March 2020, student loan repayments will finally resume in October 2023.
Admittedly, I’ve glossed over the other catalysts in Ackman’s thesis — including the aforementioned supply-demand issues and the fiscal and governance challenges that Fitch underscored in its recent downgrade — but the inflation call seems to be the linchpin to his argument, at least going by the math in the post.
A member of Putnam's Fixed Income team since 2007, Onsel Gulbiten analyzes macroeconomic issues, including inflation, interest rates, and policy developments.
Private credit is an asset class that has blossomed alongside the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. From sovereign funds to family offices, many people want to put their money in. Asset managers are more than happy to latch onto this enthusiasm.
Talk of Goldilocks has taken hold in the markets, and with it the risk-taking allure of not-too-hot and not-too-cold investing conditions.
Believe it or not, Emerging Markets (EM) local currency bonds have been outperforming global fixed income asset classes for the past 18-months.
If you answer “yes” to any of the following questions, you might be caught up in toxic positivity.
While inflation dipping below 3% has been welcome news for investors, it’s still early to claim that inflation has been reined in. Our simple analysis shows that inflation rising in the latter half of 2023 would not be surprising.
US stock market traders are almost completely fearless now, which has some strategists bracing for a possible selloff.
Home Bias, Yield Hunters & Thematics - The Canadian Perspective. A conversation with Dave Nadig, Financial Futurist at VettaFi and Daniel Straus, MD, ETF Research & Strategy at National Bank Financial.
We talk frequently about the way central banks and governments affect the economy. In the grander scheme of things, though, whatever the Fed does is more like throwing a hand grenade into a large building. Yes, you’ll make some noise and cause some damage. People may be hurt. But the building won’t care, and the owner will fix it.
Office Commercial Real Estate faces challenges ahead, with high vacancy rates, declining rental income, and potential defaults. Investors should seek opportunities in more resilient sectors; multifamily properties for better risk-adjusted returns amidst a weakening economy/hawkish Fed.
Monetary and fiscal indicators continued to tighten significantly in the second quarter pointing towards a material slowdown in the U.S. economy.
A favorable inflation report is just one step in a long journey.
BlackRock Inc. is poised to become a bigger buyer of assets that banks unload to improve their capital and liquidity, after concluding that the industry faces years of upheaval brought on by high-interest rates, stringent new regulations and possible consolidation.
High-quality fixed-income assets may offer the best return potential in more than a decade along with diversification benefits as a likely recession approaches.
Inspired by the modest market turbulence late last year, I just couldn’t resist trying my hand at a daily financial column. Only the names have been changed to protect the clueless.
This year, managers at Jefferies Financial Group Inc., Evercore Inc. and PJT Partners Inc. say they’ve been inundated with CVs from the likes of Goldman, Barclays Plc and Credit Suisse.
It made sense at the time. Jerome Powell was waging war on inflation. The bond market was flashing dire warnings. Practically everyone saw a recession coming.
Global corporate bond returns just hit their highest level this year on bets that the inflation crisis is coming to an end. Some investors say this may be as good as it gets, with dangers lurking in credit markets for the second half.
We’ve known for a long time that CPI-adjusted lifetime guarantees are the ultimate bedrock for a secure retirement.
Appealing yields and cautious markets.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s profit plunged as the Wall Street giant notched one of its weakest quarters under Chief Executive Officer David Solomon.