Once you gain someone's trust, they will accept almost anything you recommend. But trust is tough to earn and rarely given quickly.
Lately, Federal Reserve officials have been paying greater attention to financial conditions – that is, to the influence that market phenomena such as stock prices, bond yields and housing prices have on economic activity, above and beyond the effect of the short-term interest rates that the central bank controls directly.
On Monday, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed over 5%, a 16-year high. It’s a level few would have predicted during the long run of rock-bottom interest rates that followed the Great Financial Crisis.
Tight lending standards and rising yields, along with concern about an approaching turn in the business cycle, have put opportunistic credit in the spotlight. But what, exactly, does opportunistic credit mean? Here’s how we look at it—and what we think it may offer investors.
I previously discussed a method of applying long-run, risk-return insights to a goals-based approach to retirement investing. This article considers how to extend the process into the pre-retirement years.
Restrictive monetary conditions, from higher yields and tighter lending conditions, are the Fed’s “Waterloo.”
Many aspects of the economy are still being buffeted by the ripples from the pandemic, which makes precedents hard to apply, and should make everyone cautious as to their judgments. Housing market data is also, inevitably, reported with a lag.
For a fleeting moment this month, investment bankers in leveraged finance — the lucrative lending that oils the wheels of M&A and feeds the $1.3 trillion market for collateralized loan obligations — had rare cause for cheer.
Term premiums have been on the rise, but should investors be concerned? Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, explains what term premiums are, and why they are worth paying attention to.
We have been looking at big historical/economic/political cycles for the past two months.
Few are saying it out loud, but it seems plenty of investment banking leaders think a big rebound in dealmaking and fundraising is around the corner.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported trading revenue that beat analysts’ estimates while a second straight quarter of real estate write downs dragged profit lower.
A run of shrinking quarterly profits may finally end soon, but it's probably not time to break out the champagne just yet.
Value-conscious, historically-informed, full-cycle investors place a great deal of emphasis on the relationship between the price an investor pays today and the cash flows they can expect to receive in the future. The reason is simple.
At the end of October we will get our first look at real GDP growth for the third quarter and it looks like it was very strong.
New research shows that the tightening of bank lending standards – as is the case now – has led to stock-market underperformance. But with banks playing a smaller role in corporate finance, that finding has lost some relevance.
While a goals-based approach divides a retiree’s liabilities (future spending goals/needs) and assets into separate pieces with separate mandates, it can be useful to see how they all stack together.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon calls it “over-earning,” but his isn’t the only bank that still hasn’t felt much pain from loan losses or rising deposit costs
Florida’s farmers have spent nearly two decades fending off plagues, freezes and storms that decimated their orange crops. A growing number of them have had enough.
“Restrictive for longer” is now the mantra as monetary policymakers seek to bring inflation reliably to target.
Savvy investors are aware that geopolitical tensions and uncertainty can significantly influence the financial markets.
A liquidity gap is growing as banks curtail specialty lending, providing specialty finance investors opportunities for potential better risk-adjusted returns than we’ve seen since the GFC.
Gold has lost $170 since hitting a peak of $2,050 per ounce in early May.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks provides a follow-up to Sea Change (December 2022). He argues that the trends highlighted in the original memo collectively represent a sweeping alteration of the investment environment that calls for significant capital reallocation.
New bank rules will raise borrowing costs and weigh on economic activity.
After investment losses tore through the US financial system this year, a fresh slump in bank stocks shows some investors fear the problem — which at its most extreme claimed a handful of lenders — hasn’t gone away.
Three major housing-industry lobby groups called on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to refrain from raising interest rates any further and to pledge against selling mortgage bonds unless real estate financing stabilizes.
As the Federal Reserve signals it will keep interest rates higher for longer, the market appears to be reflecting the uncertainty about the path of policy going forward.
In the next year, we will see the introduction of the fully functioning, digital-human financial advisor.
What everyone wants to know now is how much further the selloff will go and how long it will last. I can venture a few educated guesses based on history.
Advisor Perspectives has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q3 2023.
When you see articles and posts about the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, ignore them.
Michael Kitces just published the results of his new software survey. Many of the results confirmed what Joel Bruckenstein and I have been reporting for years. But there were some key differences.
When Congress voted in 2018 to give regional banks a break from stiffer post-crisis capital rules, it created a two-tier banking system in the US.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said the surge in US Treasury yields to historically high levels over the last several weeks will crimp economic growth and sow financial risks, though the bank is still not calling for a recession.
Corporate defaults and bankruptcies are on the rise, but we don't believe it should be a concern for investors who hold highly rated corporate bond investments, like those with investment-grade ratings.
One mark of true brilliance is the ability to make complex ideas seem simple. I think this is why so many of us fondly remember our early schoolteachers.
Not so long ago, families, businesses and governments were effectively living in a world of free money.
Bulls hoping the Nasdaq 100’s best day since August is the start of a meaningful rebound may be about to get a boost from a long-standing ally: tech companies themselves.
News of a liquidity crisis at China's largest property developer, Country Garden, has rekindled fears about the scale of the country's real estate problems and potential ripple effects. And Country Garden is not alone.
This is the 25th anniversary of the collapse of LTCM, so let’s reflect on the similarities between that debacle and what might unfold in the capital markets today.
Hedge funds are in regulators’ sights again. Their risk-taking with borrowed money must be better monitored and will sometimes have to be limited, the head of a global group of supervisors told the Financial Times last week.
Office prices in the US are due for a crash, and the commercial real estate market faces at least another nine months of declines, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
The commercial real estate sector’s continued challenges could potentially impact US banks. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Shawn Lyons discusses the ongoing commercial real estate crisis and how US banks are safeguarding themselves against these issues.
The Chinese yuan has lost nearly 6% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year, while Shanghai-listed stocks are off about 8% from their 2023 high, set back in May.
It was the week that bond markets finally seemed to grasp what central bankers have been warning all year: higher interest rates are here to stay.
For all the importance of China’s subpar recovery, the country's woes are notably absent from the plethora of projections and commentary that flow from the Federal Reserve these days. Judging from recent remarks, there's either no problem or nothing sufficiently grave to prod Chair Jay Powell to hint at switching gears. Give it time.
In what has been a hugely disruptive year for social media, Zuckerberg seems to be coming out on top — and enjoying it.
In our latest Quarterly Letter, Ben Inker and John Pease discuss the new economic regime, how investors can prepare for a recession, and the merits of combining high quality and cheap assets in today’s environment.
