We wrote this in the evening last night and with the news so fluid, there are further things we could add this morning.
US Treasuries were lower as traders parsed tweaks to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement regarding progress on the fight against inflation.
Close scrutiny of the investment landscape reveals there is precious little room for the Trump administration to improve conditions for stocks. There is also room for current narratives to fall a long way.
I recently read three very different books which were published in the last three years, all of them speaking to the problems created by the neoliberal order that has been in the ascendancy since the late ’70s but has faltered of late. The solutions that these books offer are, respectively: tweaking; evolution; and revolution.
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
Stock market stoicism isn’t just philosophy – it’s a practical approach to investing where we focus on what we can control (research quality, disciplined decisions, and our reactions) while accepting what we can’t (market whims and short-term sentiment shifts).
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
On top of the human tragedy they’re still inflicting, the Los Angeles wildfires are exposing a gap between what people thought their homes were worth and what they’ll actually get from insurance companies when those houses have been reduced to ash. Potentially thousands of homeowners are learning it won’t be nearly enough.
Over the past few months, I’ve had occasion to speak at a number of conferences concerned with the impact of artificial intelligence on financial jobs.
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
I’m not ready to concede that active bests the benchmarks by adding what I consider alpha. For example, “positioning the fund to have more credit risk than its benchmark” is a risk premium much in the same way that the equity risk premium produced returns over the risk-free rate. The credit risk premium may be worth it, but that’s beta, not alpha.
In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, “Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”.
Caryl Falvey shares retirement-conversation insights from MIT Agelabs and MassMutual Strategic Distributors.
Chinese stocks posted their worst start to a year in nearly a decade as investors braced for economic uncertainties with weaker-than-expected manufacturing data and an anticipated hike in tariffs.
While Bitcoin’s surge above $100,000 captivated the headlines in 2024, many financial firms were more focused this year on a different type of cryptocurrency whose price is never meant to rise — or fall for that matter.
It’s that time of year again, when pundits are forecasting next year’s stock market performance. I believe investors are being gaslighted more than usual this year because the basic underlying assumptions are optimistic and unlikely.
I expect three major innovation cycles to dramatically affect our world in the next decade, with impacts comparable to steam engines, electricity, automobiles, and even the internet. Every new invention helps us explore even further.
Today often kicks off the Santa Claus rally. Stocks rose and volatility is down sharply from recent peaks, but yields keep rising, which has hurt the non-tech part of the market.
This analysis explores why SOC2 certification, despite its widespread adoption and respected status, may provide a false sense of security and prove inadequate in protecting organizations against modern cyber threats.
As investors continue to step out of cash and potentially rebalance out of equities following their strong performance, we expect bonds to play a larger role in diversified portfolios next year.
Bond traders have rarely suffered so much from a Federal Reserve easing cycle. Now they fear 2025 threatens more of the same.
Central banks’ climbdown from the post-pandemic inflation peaks commenced amid both optimism and trepidation.
Existing-home sales in the US topped a rate of 4 million in November for the first time in six months as house hunters begrudgingly accept mortgage rates above 6%.
Rice paddies that lay fallow for decades in some of Japan’s most far-flung regions are now its hottest properties.
US consumer prices rose at a firm pace in November that was in line with expectations, solidifying expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week.
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
Strong 2024 performance may be tough to replicate given tight credit spreads, but we still have a favorable view on corporate bond investments given the strong economy.
Might another market liquidity event be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise.
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify.
China’s central bank will deliver the biggest interest-rate cuts in a decade next year as policymakers intensify efforts to shore up growth and arrest deflation, in the view of a number of Wall Street lenders.
The passive-investing juggernaut is picking up speed — and it’s stirring up fresh angst about the dangers posed by the index-tracking boom across Wall Street.
At the 2018 Berkshire Annual Meeting, Buffett noted that “multiple times in my life, people have felt the country was more divided than ever.
The trend is your friend. Or, in Larry Fink’s case, your primary acquisition tickbox.
While space startup Rocket Lab USA Inc. prepares to test-launch its new medium-sized rocket next year, its shares have already blasted into orbit.
Take a moment to understand a few recent breakthroughs in medicine and explore a few ways to get actionable exposure to them with ETFs.
Blackstone Inc.’s main private credit fund stormed the investment-grade bond market to raise a combined $1.5 billion in a single day, adding to the rush of direct lenders trying to lock in cheaper financing costs.
US banks enjoyed a sharp stock price jump on Donald Trump’s election victory; two weeks later, they’ve held onto those gains. There’s one good reason for this — and several poor ones, all to do with regulation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says he wants to wait and see what policies the incoming Trump administration will implement before the central bank forecasts what it means for the economy.
Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office led investment firms for the world’s rich in boosting allocations to US bank shares last quarter, putting them in line to profit from a rally in financial stocks.
Much of modern finance falls into one of two camps, neoclassical finance and behavioral finance. The former posits efficient markets, the latter posits the opposite.
Private equity’s recent splurge of piling ever more debt onto already highly leveraged bets has sparked fears about financial-system risks. Banks, however, are positioning themselves to take advantage.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is already starting to tee up a deluge of bonuses in Wall Street’s corridors of power.
Cerebrospinal fluid leaks, caused by tears or holes in the spinal cord, are rare and difficult to identify. Because the symptoms aren’t uncommon — including nausea, neck pain, ringing in the ears and debilitating positional headaches — patients can spend years without a proper diagnosis. Some have been told they have allergies.
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income believes investing in companies promoting gender equality and diversity can lead to inclusivity and strong financial returns. Despite the persistent gender gap, there's an increase in women in leadership roles, positively impacting financial performance, corporate governance and crisis resilience.
