Emerging Economies Drive Growth in Global Shipping and Trade
Approximately 80% of all S&P 500 companies have reported fourth-quarter earnings as of today, and of those, 75% have reported earnings per share (EPS) above estimates. That’s well above the 10-year average, according to FactSet.
Housing Is Unaffordable. Dems Want to Make It Worse.
The cost of housing remains a hot-button topic with both Millennials and Gen-Z. Plenty of articles and commentaries address the concern of supply and affordability, with the younger generations getting hit the hardest.
Letter to My Daughters: On How to Get Started
I met with seniors from Duquesne University recently, all of them about your age. They are Finance Majors graduating in the spring and were looking for insights into investing, career advice and strategies for building successful careers.
Why Banks and Airlines Love Rewards Cards More Than You Do
Brian Kelly is The Points Guy, a pioneer in the cottage industry that helps credit card users get the most out of airmiles and other rewards. He got into it when young out of a determination to always fly business class. His motivation? “I’m six-foot-seven!” he says.
C.S. Lewis coined the term ‘chronological snobbery’. According to Lewis, the definition of chronological snobbery is “the uncritical acceptance of the intellectual climate of our own age and the assumption that whatever has gone out of date is on that count discredited.”
China’s Glut, India’s Drought. Two Faces of Liquidity
Lenders in the world’s two most-populous nations are having very different problems with monetary and fiscal taps. In China, creditors are drowning in cheap central bank cash, but loan demand is muted. In India, banks are in the middle of their fastest expansion in a decade, but they’re parched for liquidity.
Sports Bets and Financial Disasters Share Some Traits
What does a November 2023 hockey bet have to do with the 2008 financial crisis and the Chunnel connecting England to France? A lot, and the relation is key to understanding financial disasters — not to mention getting paid for longshot sports bets and getting from London to Paris safely.
The Fed Tells Banks Not to Be Shy About Asking It for Money
When Brookline Bancorp Inc. needs to borrow short-term cash quickly — part of the regular course of business for the Boston-based lender — it has a range of options. One source of cheap money it’s loath to turn to, however, is the Federal Reserve for fear of setting off alarm bells.
How The 2024 Election Could Propel Defense Stocks To New Heights
The race for the White House intensified this week as Donald Trump won the Iowa caucus with 51% of the vote, handily beating rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. Results from the online prediction market PredictIt now show that Trump has become the betting favorite to win November’s general election.
Seismic Bond Shift Has Traders Watching Yield Curve’s Moves
Bond traders are growing convinced that US Treasury yields are on the brink of returning to the way they’ve traded for most of their existence — it’s the how, why and when of the normalization that keeps financial markets bouncing around.
Bond Bulls Fixated on Fed-Rate Cuts Risk Getting Smacked Around
Bond traders are growing more convinced that US yields are heading lower as they bet on a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, yet the path to cheaper borrowing costs is set to be extremely bumpy.
Why the Cost of Money Is About to Go Up
What’s the most important price in the global economy? The price of oil? The price of semiconductors? The price of a Big Mac? More important than any of these is the price of money. For more than three decades it was falling, but now it’s set to rise.
In December 2022, I published Sea Change, a memo that primarily discussed the 13-year period from the end of 2008, when the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate to zero to counter the effects of the Global Financial Crisis, to the end of 2021, when the Fed abandoned the idea that inflation was transitory and readied what turned out to be a rapid-fire succession of interest rate increases.
Private Credit Outlook: Evolution and Opportunity
Private credit has in a little more than a decade evolved from a niche asset class to a key component of a diversified investment portfolio. We think it will be even more important in 2024 as banks’ reluctance to lend widens the opportunity set for investors.
If Only We Knew the Problems Facing America's Banks
The US has yet to fully address one of the greatest weaknesses revealed by last year’s failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other regional lenders: Supervisors saw the problems, but they failed to compel action before it was too late.
Coming Rate Cuts Portend a 1980s-Style Economic Resurgence
The key economic question for 2024 is how to think about the interest rate cuts we’re likely to get from the Federal Reserve. Are they good news for the economy as borrowers catch a break, or a sign of impending recession as they were in 2001 and 2007?
2024 Will Mark the End of the Post-Pandemic Economy
Economists did not believe it was possible, but they’ve been wrong a lot lately, and in their defense it has only ever happened once (or maybe twice) before: We may be witnessing that rare achievement known as a soft landing.
Ozempic Can’t Help Your Overweight in Big Tech: Global ETF Diversification Ideas for 2024
The start of a new year brings a chance for reflection and re-evaluation. For investors, a chance to rebalance. Franklin Templeton ETFs’ Dina Ting and Marcus Weyerer highlight the pitfalls of overweight exposure to mega tech stocks and where in the world to look for diversification in 2024.
Everything Wall Street Got Wrong in 2023
All across Wall Street, on equities desks and bond desks, at giant firms and niche outfits, the mood was glum. It was the end of 2022 and everyone, it seemed, was game-planning for the recession they were convinced was coming.
Cevian’s Hopes for UBS Are Probably a Bit Rich
Cevian Capital AB’s $1.3 billion bet on UBS Group AG is unusual in more ways than one. The Stockholm-based investment firm is typically a quiet activist, working behind the scenes to steer management thinking. This time it’s being very public about what looks like a straightforward value play.