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Results 101–150
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Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Last week the market continued its reaction to the indisputable evidence of a global slowdown, as well as the farcical leadership being shown in Europe, as to how to deal with their various sovereign debt problems. As the charts above illustrate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.6% while the growth-oriented NASDAQ Composite fell 3.3% on the week and is back to even for the year.
And That?s The Week That Was ?
As we warned last week and over the past couple of months, the poor quality of the economic expansion finally has caught up to the economic statistics. Last Friday?s dismal report showing a jump in the unemployment rate to 9.1% left all of the cheerleaders from Warren Buffet to the Secretary of Labor scrambling for explanations. Given the lack of earnings or merger news, the stock market recorded its fifth straight weekly decline. As the charts illustrate, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite dropped around 2.3% last week in response to the now obvious slowdown.
Weekly Market Commentary
Four straight down weeks for the stock market, albeit last week?s was quite small. Once again the month of May has proven difficult for stock prices. As the charts above illustrate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite fell by much less than one percent last week.
And That's The Week That Was?
The market showed its third consecutive weekly decline as the concerns over Europe?s sovereign debt issues and the now convincing evidence of a global slowdown has traders taking some short-term profits. As the charts illustrate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped .7% last week while the NASDAQ Composite declined an even larger .9%.
Weekly Market Commentary
Overall the stock market was quiescent last week but underneath the surface a dramatic sector rotation was taking place. As the charts above illustrate, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average as well as the NASDAQ Composite barely moved from their previous weeks closing level. This apparent peaceful trading though came as the defensive sectors benefited as money raced out of financials or any commodity related including the economically sensitive sectors.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Strong earnings and a benevolent report from the Federal Reserve Board combined to keep the stock market rally roaring ahead despite scant media coverage. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.44% led by our shares in Boeing and Caterpillar while the NASDAQ Composite reached multi-year highs and gained 1.84% on the week.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Last week started with concern over the US government?s finances, but the holiday-shortened week ended positively as earnings once again overwhelmed the negative macro headlines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.33% while the NASDAQ Composite jumped by 2% led by our own shares of Biogen (see our comments below) which surged better than 20% for the week.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Last week saw the stock market drop slightly over ongoing European default concerns as well as the sting of high oil prices feeding through into inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell just .3% while the NASDAQ Composite dropped .57%. The few earnings announcements also caused some investors to lock in some trading profits.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
As we expected last Monday the stock market did nothing but tread water last week. Hesitation before the earnings season begins this week, along with the pause, while our national government debated whether to shut down, were the two dominant reasons for the peace and quiet. the Dow Jones Industrial Average as well as the NASDAQ Composite were flat for last week.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Stocks continued their recent rebound despite a lack of resolution of any of the issues dominating not only the business news but the global headlines as well. The Dow Jones gained 1.3% on the week, which was exceeded by the gains seen in the NASDAQ Composite of 1.7%. Much of last week focused upon two things: The first was the price of oil and our involvement in Libyal. Secondly, the focus was on what, if any, fallout would be seen in last Friday?s employment data for March. This was important especially in light of the recent severe drops in consumer confidence and the price of gasoline.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Stocks rebounded strongly last week as the sell-off of the previous week provided investors with a good entry point. the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3% while the NASDAQ Composite jumped by 3.76%. The reason for this quite simply is strong corporate profits last year and the strong outlook for the same this year overtaking the many problems that dominate the news these days.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Last week had the financial markets dealing with the headline risks associated with the nuclear reactor crisis in Japan, the uncertainty associated with what would be the outcome in Libya and of course the usual issues of inflation, budget deficits and monetary policy in general. In essence, the markets just had too much to concern themselves with. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5% while the NASDAQ Composite dropped 2.7% as concerns about technology supply issues dominated the worries about future growth.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Last week?s financial markets reflected the uncertain outcome of the various mid-east conflicts, as well as the horrific news from Japan that an earthquake of unimaginable intensity has rocked that country, both of which have global economic implications. Overall, the stock market was calm. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell just one percent while the NASDAQ Composite dropped 2.5% as fears of slower growth were compounded late in the week by news of the earthquake in Japan, which is home to many technology supply-parts manufacturers.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Last week was dominated by continued good economic data, which supported stock prices, even as concern mounts about supposed inflation and the ability of the Federal Reserve Board to come up with a believable exit strategy from its current policy of quantitative easing (read that to mean the FED is buying treasuries from the government to finance this year?s $1.6 trillion deficit).
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
No one knows what the longer-term direction of the Egyptian state will be, and as a consequence the investment outlook now has an additional source of uncertainty. As far as the global economy is concerned, the failure of the European leaders to agree on to how to handle future sovereign debt crises has cast a shadow once again over Portugal and even Ireland. The problem that Ireland poses is that the elections to be held shortly will bring about a new government who may wish to renegotiate their bailout agreement.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Perversely, while only 36,000 new non-farm payroll jobs were reported, the unemployment rate fell to 9%. I say perversely because everyone knows that our economy needs to create upwards of 150,000 net new jobs on a monthly basis just to keep the unemployment rate from falling. So, what is going on here? The government is constantly changing its estimate of who is unemployed. In this way you can lower the unemployment rate without creating net new jobs and that is what is occurring.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
In addition to strong corporate earnings being reported last week, there was also the government?s estimate of GDP growth for the fourth quarter of last year. The headline number showed a growth rate of 3.2%, which was lower than expected. The reason though was a rundown in inventories and an improving trade deficit. These are inherently positive developments, which perversely count against growth in the calculation.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Earnings are coming in at a very strong pace. The problem is that stock prices in many cases have risen in anticipation of these results. As far as the economy is concerned the bulk of the evidence released last week was encouraging, but the impact of higher oil prices is really starting to be interpreted as a negative for future consumer spending and corporate hiring plans.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
The outlook for the future of the economy remains upward. The latest from the Economic Cycle Research Institute shows the highest level of year over year growth rate since last May (see chart below). Consequently, the economy is improving, but not quickly enough to fundamentally lower the unemployment rate.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
The stock market has begun the New Year with a growing consensus that the economy is improving. Even the banks are starting to show some signs of life and they have become the most hated group as well as the most dependent upon an upturn in the economy and employment. Having said this, the market, while off to a fast start this morning, has been discounting this improving news (as well as the presumptive upcoming deadlock emerging from Washington DC). Thus the sentiment towards stocks has improved to pretty high levels and this concerns many of those who are contrary in their trading.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
The big news last week was the final passage of the extension of the tax rates first enacted under President Bush some ten years ago. Mind you, there are no income tax cuts for anyone as the media seems bent on convincing people. Obviously, we are heading into the holiday season. This week will see the financial markets closed on Friday in honor of the Christmas federal holiday. European markets tend to take even more time off, so this week should be very quiet.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Frankly, there are many cross currents and news items floating around today. The bailout of Europe and presumably other European countries continues to be a headline risk that impacts the currency markets greatly which heavily determine the daily direction of stock market futures. Tomorrow?s vote in the Irish parliament to ratify the conditions of the bailout package will be another reminder of the unpredictable nature of the overnight headlines.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Despite high profile news items such as the bail out of Ireland (and soon to be other nations in the Euro zone), the monetary tightening occurring in China and the high profile campaign to attack our country?s monetary policy, the stock market was as flat as a pancake last week which did not sit well with the many prognosticators calling for a significant pullback.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
The stock market succumbed to profit taking last week. The reasons are many, but revolved around a poor earnings report from Cisco Systems, a growing skepticism of the Fed?s announced plan to goose the money supply, and finally what the mainstream media is reporting as a rather disappointing trip to Asia by President Obama even as he tried to put his electoral defeat here at home behind him.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Overall, the market has largely anticipated this week's midterm election results and Federal Reserve quantitative easing announcement. The possibility exists that some break in the rally could ensue. Such a disruption, however, is doubtful to last long. The race to the end of the year is upon us and barring a terrorist event - the easiest path for stock prices, for now, is higher.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
The economy continues to throw off some outstanding corporate profit reports. Profits are what the stock market is all about. While the pundits and politicians talk endlessly about jobs and how to create them (like they would have a clue,) the market is most looking forward to profit growth. In that sense the lower dollar, strength in emerging markets and strong expense control are reaping huge rewards for global companies who lead their industries.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Concern over the state of the economy continues, as well as the disconnection between the lagging employment picture and housing sector versus the rallying stock market. The money supply will continue to expand, and new money is starting to flow into equities. Investors can look forward after the election for Congress to retreat from both the rhetoric and the reality of raising anyone's taxes in 2011. This too will be another positive market event. The economy itself continues to muddle through. Retail sales are better than expected, but consumer sentiment is at recessionary levels.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Investors should continue to watch the political tea leaves for indications of how important policy issues will play themselves out. In the near term the outlook is for strong profits, but subpar overall economic growth. This is not the best combination, but it is also not the worst, and certainly the Federal Reserve Board has made it crystal clear that deflation will not be allowed to take hold in the United States - but this too has its downside longer term.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
The economy continues to show signs that it is not getting worse, and perhaps, led by global opportunities and strong corporate profits, is improving at the margins. Last week's reports on second quarter GDP and August personal income and spending certainly support the notion that a double-dip has a much lower probability than it did before. This notion is confirmed by the results of the Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly report on leading economic indicators.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Clearly, investors understand that earnings will be decent when they are released in late October, that the Fed will be printing money starting in November and that a more business-friendly election change is just a few weeks away. These developments are all supportive of stock prices. As a result, for the next few weeks it seems that only an event out of left field could meaningfully upset the stock market apple cart.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Unemployment claims have leveled off at a very high level and the Economic Cycle Research Institute's leading indicators has shown improvement. The year-over-year level, though, suggests slow and anemic growth ahead. Thus government policy must focus not on spending which simply raises the nation's debt levels but on growth. Read that to mean lower taxes and a smaller government sector supported by a growing private sector.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Last week's trading was heavily influenced by the so-called better-than-expected employment report for the month of August. The market had really discounted a very bad outcome and so when that scenario failed to materialize, the stock market was prepared to rally. Thus, the month of September has already reversed much of the damage that was done during the month before. Should Congress vote to extend cuts for all taxpayers for the next two years, then the rally just might have the justification to continue.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Investors, despite all of the uncertainties our government is presenting businesses with, are anticipating future policy changes. The result has been a stalemate on Wall Street. Corporate profitability remains excellent, as witnessed by global bellwethers Caterpillar and Boeing, but employment gains are subpar and likely to get worse.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
While earnings remain quite good, the macro news on the economy warrants a more defensive stance as we head into the fall midterm elections. Clearly, the economy is not in the kind of trouble it was two years ago, but just as clearly, the policies emanating from Washington D.C., whether they be tax increases, healthcare mandates, oil drilling moratoriums or the recently concluded financial regulation monstrosity, are stifling business plans.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
For some time we have been discussing the twin factors of a truly jobless recovery versus very strong corporate profits. While much of the media focuses upon the jobs issue because of its political impact, the stock market is mostly concerned with profits and productivity trends of those working. Corporations simply will not expand or hire under the uncertainty of changing tax, healthcare and energy policies. As a result, the economy is now being held hostage to the upcoming mid-term elections as an indication of just what direction the central planning policy of Washington D.C. will take.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
There is now a considerable debate brewing between those who think the economy is sputtering out, versus those who remain impressed with the high level of corporate profits being reported and forecast. The month of July showed gains of 7 percent overall, so recently, those who focus on profits and not headlines, have come out ahead. On the other hand it would be foolish to ignore the problems emanating from a growing public sector, which is causing us to run budget deficits of around 14 percent of GDP.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Doom and gloom is featured prominently in the news what with the budget deficit of 1.5 trillion dollars and the seemingly hopeless outlook for many second tier European countries, but the stock market discounts corporate earnings. Perversely, cost cutting (high unemployment) and growing use of technology (the emergence of the mobile web for example) is creating the odd occurrence of huge gains in productivity. When you combine this with the fear amongst corporations over government policy you have a situation where everyone is watching their expenses and their investment opportunities.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
The skepticism from investors both individual and institutional remains quite high as the aforementioned concerns about an economic slowdown continue to persist. The good news though, is that profit margins remain strong and interest rates will stay near zero for quite some time. Thus equities are the only game in town for investors whether they want to admit it or not. In that regard, we shall see what, if any, opportunities in individual company names present themselves during the upcoming earnings season.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
The market looks likely to be in a trading range until the fall as the excellent earnings are offset by the political uncertainties and the threat of one last attempt to micro-manage our $14 trillion economy. For now, the bulls have the upper hand after a lousy May and June. As a result the earnings season, which really gets underway this week, could serve to catapult stock prices higher by Labor Day especially given the thin summer trading that we have observed.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
?The stock market registered its concern for a slowing economy by falling nearly every
day last week, at least in terms of the Dow Jones Industrial Average,? explains Tom McIntyre. Between the Gulf oil spill, the housing market, increased costs on business and tax hikes, investors are on their heels. Yet, these factors also produced a very strong dollar, record low interest rates and energy costs. McIntyre agrees with ECRI predictions that it is too early for a double dip, however a slowdown will occur and advisors will respond by the composition of their portfolios.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
The Economic Cycle Research Institute's year-over-year growth rate has turned negative. Their interpretation is that the growth rate will slow soon, but it is too soon to conclude whether or not a new recession is in the cards for 2011. The market is pleased with the stability in the currency exchange rates, while the lower interest rate outlook is helping many sectors of the economy along with lower gasoline prices for the summer driving season. So the news is mixed, but it looks like the next move for the stock market will be up.
Weekly Commentary & Update
The year-over-year advance in current indicators is at a 50-week low and could be ready to turn negative soon. This has happened 12 times in the past and it produced only 3 recessions. Consequently, it is too early to predict a double dip for this year, but clearly a slowing down is in the cards and this along with the absence of temporary census workers will make for several months of disappointing employment numbers. President Obama needs to get some better advice from his advisers as to how to handle this situation.
Weekly Commentary & Update
Our domestic economy, while still growing, is in the process of slowing down. This does not mean a double dip by any means. It just means that a
meaningful reduction in the unemployment rate is almost certainly out of the question. Businesses simply will not expand payrolls if they determine that growth is slowing down. Corporate profits and the immediate outlook remain fine, however. Interest rates are near historic lows and any attempt to change that policy is so far into the future that it will not concern investors any longer.
Weekly Commentary & Update
Financial markets are reacting to the concern that Europe simply cannot put its house in order. Bonds have rallied and produced the lowest mortgage rates anyone can remember. Oil has fallen, which will lead to a decline in gasoline prices in time for the summer driving season. And the dollar has rallied strongly, once again proving conclusively that it remains the global
reserve currency of choice. On the other hand, the loss of confidence in the Euro and subsequent attempt to rein in government spending has called future prospects for global growth into question.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
The euro represents one currency, backed by 19 countries with various fiscal policy problems that range from bad to hopeless. The runaway government spending that dominates the euro area is now calling the future of the monetary union into question. One would hope that the Obama administration would look at Europe and wonder whether deficits in the U.S. at the federal, state and local levels could cause problems there. So far it is business as usual.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
The concern in Europe is justified. Their one currency with multiple fiscal policies has led to this disaster. The Euro is now doomed to second tier status and may soon be out of existence altogether. The prospect of this scenario caused the European authorities to cobble together a rescue package (complete with huge support from the U.S. taxpayer via the International Monetary Fund) that sent world markets soaring. Meanwhile, the outlook for our economy remains solid. High unemployment rates will keep interest rates low, which will be very good for the stock market.
Results 101–150
of 159 found.
