This week’s On My Radar is an investment outlook piece. While current trend evidence remains bullish, you’ll see valuation data below that tells us the coming 7-, 10- and 12-year equity market returns are not so good. Your and my clients are expecting 10% forward returns; however, due to extremely high valuations they are likely get 0% to 2%. Trouble spots? There are many.
President Donald J. Trump nominated Jerome Powell to be chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. If confirmed, Governor Powell will replace Janet Yellen in February. Powell is smart, well-liked and respected by Republicans and Democrats alike.
“Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed!” It is one of investing’s “golden” rules and is perhaps never more true than it is today. The Fed, ECB and BoJ own one-third of the global bond market. One-third! Pause, put finger to chin and wrap your mind around that one.
It remains a decidedly risk-on environment. Interest rates are higher, the dollar is higher and the stock market is higher. The positives for higher equity prices are the liquidity coming from global central bankers, the potential for the repatriation of offshore corporate cash...
President Trump has the opportunity to overhaul the Federal Reserve by appointing new Fed governors who align with his administration’s views – namely that the current Fed suffers from regulatory over-reach and is less independent than ever, says Steve Malin, investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors.
Long-time readers know I’m an avid Ned Davis Research fan. I’ve been a loyal client since the 1990s. Ned Davis built a fact-based, technology-driven research organization. Some years ago, Ned wrote a book titled, Being Right or Making Money and I believe that title sums up NDR’s investment research culture.
Yet this is not the mood in which bull markets typically end. Central banks around the world have purchased approximately $15 trillion of financial assets since the great crisis. Outside of the U.S., the BOJ and ECB are still buying.
I’d like to take you to two places today. One is life and the pursuit of dreams. “I was born with a silver spoon in my mouth,” legendary Coach Lou Holtz begins. “You have to have something to hope for and something to dream about.” It is a six-minute happy pill. I watched it with my kids and they loved it. You’ll love it too, I promise.
Bottom line: Those foreign central bank purchases translate to a vast sea of liquidity supporting stocks. Hartnett calls it the “supernova of liquidity” and “the flow that conquers all.” My motivation and title for today’s piece.
Here, Franklin Equity Group's Steve Land digs deeper into industry fundamentals that he thinks make for an attractive longer-term investment case for gold or gold stocks