Search Results
Results 551–600
of 705 found.
Global Telecom Stocks Lose Luster
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
As their prices have increased in recent months, global telecommunication stocks have started to lose some of their luster. Russ K explains why factors such as valuation and profitability have prompted him to change his view of the sector.
CASSH-ing In
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Many of the large, developed markets, including the United States, are mired in excess debt and prolonged deleveraging. Russ believes that some of the smaller developed countries the ones he refers to as the CASSH countries -- are proving more resilient.
Whither Global Stocks? Be Sure to Track This Data
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Sometimes, either weak economic numbers or strong economic numbers can point to a surge in US and global equities. This could be one of those weeks. Russ has his eye on two important economic reports that are being released this week, and he explains why weak data may be positive for global equities.
Days of Reckoning - The Potential Impact of the 2012 Elections on the Markets
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Elections can, and often do, matter for markets, but not necessarily for the reasons investors tend to emphasize. For example, there is little historical evidence that markets perform better or worse depending on which party occupies the White House. There is also no concrete evidence that markets do better under divided government, a myth that seems to have taken hold thanks to the bull market of the 1990s.
After the Downgrade: German Stocks or Bonds?
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Amid rising uncertainty surrounding Europe, Moody's earlier this week lowered its outlook for Germany. Now, given the likelihood that Europe will continue to be a source of economic risk and investor angst, many investors are wondering whether they should stick with German assets. Should investors stick with German assets? Russ says the answer is yes on German stocks but no on the country's bonds.
US Utilities: Don't Overpay for Yield
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
As short-term interest rates remain at or close to zero, investors starved for income should be wary of overpaying for yield, particularly when it comes to US utilities. In the search for yield, Russ believes investors have pushed US utilities prices too high. His advice: Don't overpay for yield.
Global Slowdown: Preparing for a Recession
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
While Russ believes that the most likely scenario for the global economy in 2012 is continued slow growth, he explains what's behind the recent global slowdown and what investors may want to consider doing if it grows worse.
4 Reasons to Like China
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
The Chinese central bank last week announced its second surprise rate cut within a month. The action from the central bank was an acknowledgement that the worlds second largest economy is slowing. Despite Chinas economic slowdown, Russ continues to hold an overweight view of Chinese equities for four reasons.
Swimming with Black Swans: The Volatile Decade Ahead
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
So long smooth sailing. Russ Koesterich explains why he expects the rest of this decade to be characterized by more market volatility and why seemingly out-of-the-ordinary Black Swan events could become more frequent.
After the EU Summit a Host of Unresolved Questions
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Last weeks European summit went better than it might have, according to Russ, but it fell far short of solving the regions structural issues. Here he outlines the big questions facing the European Union and why the regions crisis will drag on.
The Coming Oil Supply Gap
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Prices at the gas pump are falling and slow global growth is expected to keep oil prices down in the near term. But Russ has a handy new chart showing why he expects crude prices to rebound in the longer term: global oil demand is likely to greatly outstrip supply by 2030.
The Rocky Road Ahead This Year
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Back in February Russ warned that an eerie quiet had settled over the market and investors should prepare for an increase in volatility. Well, four months later that eerie quiet has lifted, and Russ outlines three reasons he expects the second half of this year to be much more volatile than the first.
Where in the World is Risk Today
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
With the sovereign debt crisis centered in the developed world, the traditional notion that all developed markets are less risky for investors than all emerging markets doesnt hold up anymore. Today, while developed markets certainly top the list of the least risky countries and vice versa for emerging markets, some developed markets are now just as risky as emerging markets. At the same time, some emerging countries are now just as safe as their developed market counterparts.
After the Greek Vote, Now What?
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
The relief rally Monday following Sundays Greek election was short lived. To be sure, the outcome of Sundays election is near-term good news for investors. A government led by the pro-bailout New Democracy is likely to follow more of the austerity program and to try, at least for now, to keep Greece in the euro. That said, there are two main reasons why markets arent continuing to celebrate the Greek vote.
Why Oil Prices Can Move Higher
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
With oil prices down roughly 25% from their 2012 peak, many investors are asking about the future direction of crude.
In my opinion, while fears of a hard landing in China and overall weakness in global growth are likely to keep prices down in the near term, crude should rebound in the longer term for three reasons.
4 Reasons Europe is a Major Risk for US Stocks
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Some investors have argued that events in Europe are having a disproportionate impact on US stocks. Their logic: the US is in the midst of a recovery, albeit a fairly anemic one, that is unlikely to be derailed by Europes travails. Its true that the US economy is doing much better than Europes, and especially southern Europes. But from my perspective, the trajectory of the US economy and the US stock market are very much tied to eurozone events. Here are four reasons why US investors should not underestimate the potential impact of events in Europe.
After Disappointing Jobs Data, Now What?
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Stocks tumbled Friday after particularly disappointing May jobs data. Russ provides his take on what the report means for the US economy and stocks going forward. First, the implications for the economy: As jobs numbers tend to lag broader economic activity, the report doesnt in itself suggest that the United States is slipping back into recession. In addition, its worth calling out that according to the new data, the United States created only 69,000 net new jobs in May, less than half of what economists were expecting and the slowest rate of net new job creation in a year.
The Eurozone Crisis: 4 Developments to Watch
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
With the future of Greece and the eurozone still so uncertain, many investors are asking how they might predict what the most likely outcome is.
While I dont have a crystal ball, in addition to paying attention to eight pivotal eurozone events happening from now until July, Im also watching for four critical developments in the run-up to the second Greece election on June 17. Heres my watch list.
The Eurozone Crisis: 8 Key Events to Watch
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Be prepared for another volatile summer. From now until July, there are a number of pivotal events from votes to meetings that could help dictate Greece and the eurozones future, and will most certainly drive market sentiment. But because the outcome of many of these events is so hard to predict, I expect markets will remain especially volatile in the days leading up to these key dates. Among the 8 pivotal moments highlighted, key events include a May 31 Irish referendum on the Stability Treaty, and the June 17 Greek elections, among others.
The Three-Part Case for Commodities
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
With both gold and broader commodity indices down significantly month to date, many investors are asking if they should lower or even remove their commodity exposure. I believe the answer is no.
First, its useful to put the recent weakness in perspective. Both gold and a broad basket of commodities are down roughly 10% over the past three months. While the losses represent a significant correction, they are in line with the performance of equity markets over the same time period. Even more importantly, here are three reasons for maintaining a strategic exposure to commodities.
The Achilles Heel of the US Economy
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
The Achilles Heel of the US economy may just be that entitlement programs havent kept pace with US demographics, a fact that has long-term implications for investors.
According to a recent annual government report on entitlement programs, the Social Security trust fund is likely to run out of money in 2033, three years earlier than previously projected. Meanwhile, both Social Security and Medicare arent sustainable in the long term without structural changes.
The Pros and Cons of Preferreds
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Given the universal hunt for yield, many investors are asking me what I think of preferred stocks. I believe that this asset class certainly has a place in yield oriented portfolios, but I wouldnt overweight preferred equity funds at this time and would instead remain neutral. Why? While preferred funds are certainly providing a healthy, relatively high yield in a low yield environment, the extra yield comes with a lot of volatility. urrently, preferred funds are offering a yield similar to that of a high yield bond fund, but preferred funds are also offering about 50% more volatility.
The Investing Implications of Price Creep
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
While double-digit inflation is extremely unlikely this year, the new core inflation figure shows that prices are slowly creeping up in the US. For investors, there are a couple of implications. 1.Recognize purchasing power erosion: Even if inflation stabilizes at current levels, over the long term 2.3% inflation would still cause prices to rise by 50%. 2. Consider equities and commodities: While uncertainty over Europe and Chinese growth are likely to keep volatility high this summer, investors should consider using near-term market weakness to add to long-term equity and commodity positions.
Will a Grexit Come to Pass?
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
The Greek election provided further evidence that despite all of the accords, firewalls, and bailout funds, Europes economic future remains on a precipice. In a reflection of deepening economic malaise in Greece, the majority of the May 6th vote went to far left and right parties, few of which ran on a platform of fiscal austerity or loyalty to Europe. While the election certainly raised the odds of Greece eventually leaving the euro, its too soon to conclude that a Greek exit is imminent. Greeces fate now hinges on the results of a second election, expected to occur as early as mid-June.
Inflation Fighters
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Whether you agree with Russ that inflation isnt a short-term concern, or you fear the worst in the near future, preparing a portfolio for inflation is on many investors minds. Russ weighs in on how different asset classes measure up against inflation. TIPS provide an effective inflation hedge and having a benchmark allocation to this asset class is prudent, the many investors clamoring into TIPS are currently contributing to, and accepting, an average negative real yield across the entire TIPS curve. In addition, TIPS will not perform well if real yields rise along with rising interest rates.
The US: Stuck in the Slow Lane How Long?
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
A slow growth world does not necessarily mean the death of equities or the absence of opportunities. It does, however, suggest that investors need to have realistic expectations for the US economy, and for most of the developed world. Slower growth, lower interest rates and lower multiples are arguably consequences of higher public debt. And this may be an issue were still contending with in two decades time.
Sell in May: Volatility Isnt Going Away
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
According to the old adage Sell in May and go away, investors are supposed to cash out their stock market positions in May and then take the traditionally poorer performing summer months off. Its no wonder, then, that many investors are asking if its time to sell, a question all the more pertinent after last weeks losses. In my opinion, the answer is a qualified yes. I believe that investors should consider lightening up on certain positions and getting more defensive. But my belief is not based on the month of the year, but rather on current market volatility.
European Election Round Up: Longer-Term Consensus?
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Four countries, four sets of elections, same result: anyone but the incumbents. Over the last few days, voters in Germany, France, Greece and Italy have delivered a clear message to politicians: austerity has taken its toll. While the results certainly imply more near-term uncertainty, particularly in Greece, they also offer the possibility of a more balanced approach to the European quagmire.
Has Tech Reached Its Top?
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Since last fall, technology companies have been helping pull the broader market higher. The S&P 500 technology sector, of which Apple Inc. makes up a significant part, has gained roughly 20% year to date and is up approximately 37% from last summers low. Its no surprise, then, that many investors are wondering if the momentum will last. In my opinion, while the technology sector still looks compelling over the longer term, it may be time for some investors to pare back their positions in the sector.
6 Reasons Why a Soft Landing in China Matters
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
World markets and financial media seem to react to every new data point about Chinas economy, whether its manufacturing reports or gross domestic product numbers. This market sensitivity isnt very surprising given how important China has become for the global economy. But it also means that it will be hard for the global recovery to continue without a soft landing in China.
The Income Hunt: Opportunities Abroad
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
When it comes to fixed income portfolios, investors are often too reliant on domestic debt issues. However, as Russ explains, today there are a number of reasons why US investors should consider looking outside their own country particularly toward emerging markets for their fixed income needs.
A Risky Business
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
In todays low yield environment, fixed income investors face a stark choice: accept lower income or take on additional risk to generate incremental yield. In assessing these two options, investors must start with their own tolerance for risk and investment objectives. For those willing to take on additional risk, I continue to advocate reducing duration risk, for which investors are not being adequately compensated, and modestly increasing exposure to spread products. I currently see opportunities in Investment Grade US Corporate Debt and Emerging Market Bonds.
Fewer Workers: A Drag on US Growth
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
The March non-farm payroll report left investors disappointed by the low level of job creation. Yet the number in the report that may prove the most relevant over the long term was largely ignored the proportion of the US population currently in the labor force, a number now at 63.8% and close to a thirty-year low. Over the long term, a countrys economic growth is determined by the rate of increase in the labor force and productivity growth. If fewer people are working growth slows. This is exactly what has happened over the past dozen or so years in the United States.
Q2 Markets: Dont Expect Smooth Sailing
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
While valuations still appear reasonable, inflationary pressures remain well contained and the economy is stabilizing, Russ explains why he expects more market volatility in the second quarter and details how investors may want to position their portfolios as a result.
Investor Question: Gold or Gold Miners?
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
The Fed may be the best friend gold investors ever had. The most important factor for gold is actually not inflation or the dollar, but rather the level of real interest rates. In fact, the relationship between gold and real rates is so critical that since 1990, the level of real rates explains roughly 60% of the annual performance of gold. Gold generally does best in an environment in which real rates are low to negative as this means no opportunity cost to holding gold. Since 2003 when gold began its long-term outperformance we have been in just such an environment.
How Rising Rates Will Affect Stocks
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
While recent market weakness, and the accompanying bond market rally, has tempered fears of an imminent bond market meltdown, many equity investors are still concerned about the potential impact of rising rates on US and global stocks. This year, I expect long-term rates to rise modestly as they appear too low. Assuming the US economy continues to stabilize over the course of the year, the yield on the 10-year Treasury will likely rise to around the 3% level, . However, this probable grind higher is not a major threat to US and global stocks this year for two reasons.
Jobs Data a Reminder of the Slow, Fitful US Recovery
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
While last Fridays disappointing monthly jobs report doesnt herald the end of the US recovery, its a reminder of the recoverys fragility and that improvement in the US economy will most likely continue to be slow and characterized by fits and starts. When you view the jobs data in a context of longer than one month, there is evidence that the US labor market has improved since last year. However, its improving from a very low base at an agonizingly slow pace. There is also some evidence that the labor market has structural problems that may prove to be a drag on growth for some time.
Time to Exit Emerging Markets?
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Is it time to sell emerging market equities? Thats what many investors are wondering given that emerging market stocks are up significantly since fall lows and have modestly outperformed developed markets year to date. Despite emerging markets strong recent performance, I believe there are two major reasons why investors should still consider overweighting select countries relative to their weight in the MSCI ACWI benchmark. Cheap Valuations and Falling Inflation.
A Headwind for the US Economy: Tax Uncertainty
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
If 2013 tax hikes seem set to hit on schedule, I would be more bearish on the US economy and US equities. In such a scenario, the US economy would likely face $500 billion to $600 billion in fiscal drag a significant damper on economic growth and consumption from higher taxes. And lingering uncertainty over taxes into 2013 would also be a negative for the US economy because of the potential harm it could cause to US confidence and business spending.
Shifting Focus: Behind Country Valuations Today
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
As the European financial crisis raged last fall, investors were closely monitoring metrics like credit default swaps and yields on Italian bonds to determine where to place their country bets.
But 2012 has brought some stability to the eurozone and with it weve noticed a shift in the types of indicators that investors should be tracking when it comes to determining country valuations metrics that show economic growth.
Proceed with Caution in the Hunt for High Yield
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Given high yield credits recent rally and surge of inflows, Im now getting a lot of questions about whether or not the asset class still looks appealing. While high yield provides an attractive pickup in yield and Im maintaining my neutral view of the sector, I believe the easy money has probably already been made and the asset class no longer looks cheap. As such, over high yield, I prefer investment grade credit and municipals.
Stocks: Still a Bargain
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
With global stocks up approximately 25% from their fall low and many market watchers endorsing equities in recent weeks, its hardly surprising that investors are wondering if stocks are still a good bargain. While some measures of sentiment notably abnormally low volatility levels could be interpreted as flashing yellow caution signs, valuations and fundamentals still favor global stocks over the long term. Currently, equities look reasonably priced. Developed market equities are trading at around 14.5x trailing earnings, while large emerging markets are trading at roughly 12x earnings.
How to Access the EM Consumer? Think Small
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Investors who are looking to gain exposure to emerging market domestic consumption may want to consider the small cap segment of emerging markets. I expect emerging markets to outperform based on low relative valuations, falling inflation and stronger growth. Longer term, emerging market stocks are likely to benefit from falling volatility and rising developed market volatility. However, if youre specifically trying to capture, and profit from, the secular rise of emerging market middle class consumers, its worth considering that small cap stocks provide a more targeted exposure.
Results 551–600
of 705 found.
