Most people today understand that a major debt crisis is highly likely but, just as in the run-up to 2008, they prefer not to think about it.
Recent oil/commodity market rallies created an extra month of “apparent demand” down the major value chains, as buyers added inventory ahead of expected price increases for their own raw materials. In turn, this created the illusion of a synchronized global recovery – but reality will now intrude as the rallies end.
The former UK Finance Minister has warned that nobody know what will happen next. So it's time to prepare contingency plans for rising interest rates, a China slowdown, trade protectionism/Brexit and growing political chaos.
Capacity utilization in the global chemical industry has an 88% correlation with IMF data for global GDP growth. December’s data is now warning that a downturn has likely begun.
