Inflation has been coming down since its peak in the summer of 2022. Because the U.S. has so far avoided a recession, soft-landing hopes have risen along with the decline in inflation.
How long will the Federal Reserve continue quantitative tightening (QT)? How large will its balance sheet be when QT ends? These important questions impact financial market liquidity, the anchor of asset values. We assess the likely path of QT in the years ahead.
A member of Putnam's Fixed Income team since 2007, Onsel Gulbiten analyzes macroeconomic issues, including inflation, interest rates, and policy developments.
Stress in the banking sector — whether or not more banks fail — remains an area of concern for us because of potential implications for the Treasury and agency MBS markets.
