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The Democratic Disruption of Finance
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 4/22/14
There seems to be no limit to the exciting possibilities that come from combining technical innovations, the Internet, and social media. What is less appreciated is the extent to which the same phenomenon is starting to play out in finance, via a democratization process that could transform the institutional landscape.

Cementing Europe?s Recovery
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 4/8/14
Europe?s renewed sense of hope and confidence, however encouraging, is not yet sufficient to produce appreciable gains for current and future generations. A few things need to happen over the next several weeks and months if Europe is to minimize the risk of another prolonged period of under-performance and financial risk.

Wallets Wide Shut
by Mohamed El Erian of Project Syndicate, 3/1/14
With profitability at or near record levels, cash holdings by the corporate sector in Europe and the US have reached an all-time high - and are earning very little at todays near-zero interest rates. But, for at least six reasons, firms are not investing in capacity and creating the jobs that these economies need.

A Happier Ending for IMF Reform?
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 2/3/14
Despite an elegant solution that involved no new commitments of resources, the US Congress last month refused to take up a long-delayed funding proposal for the IMF. But there is also a silver lining here, because disappointment can be turned into renewed opportunity.

Achieving Escape Velocity
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 1/21/14
While the prospect of faster global GDP growth in 2014 is good news, it is too early to celebrate. Indeed, there is a risk that, by tempting policymakers into complacency, this years economic upturn could even end up being counterproductive.

America's Partisan Peril
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 12/9/13
Many Americans started 2013 with high hopes that congressional leaders would overcome, even if only partly, the polarization and political dysfunction that had slowed recovery. But optimism foundered over the course of 2013, while frustration soared.

DC Plan Design for the Bumpy Road Ahead
by Mohamed El Erian of PIMCO, 11/15/13
In late October, PIMCOs CEO and Co-CIO Mohamed A. El-Erian presented the keynote speech at Pensions & Investments West Coast Defined Contribution Conference. He also spoke with P&I about top-of-mind concerns for retirement plan providers and sponsors. The Q&A below is based on that conversation.

The Uncertain Future of Central Bank Supremacy
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 11/11/13
Advanced countries’ central banks were among the first to warn that their ability to compensate for other policymakers’ inaction is neither endless nor risk-free. The trouble is that few outsiders seem to be listening, much less preparing to confront the limits of monetary policy’s effectiveness.

America's Labor Market by the Numbers
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 9/23/13
Net monthly job creation in the US was up in August, while unemployment was down. But, to get a real sense of the American labor markets health, we need to look at other indicators, and what these numbers have to tell us about both the present and the future is far from reassuring.

What's Happening to Bonds and Why?
by Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, 9/13/13
To say that bonds are under pressure would be an understatement. Over the last few months, sentiment about fixed income has flipped dramatically: from a favored investment destination that is deemed to benefit from exceptional support from central banks, to an asset class experiencing large outflows, negative returns and reduced standing as an anchor of a well-diversified asset allocation.

Lehman's Morbid Legacy
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 8/27/13
As the fifth anniversary of Lehman Brothers collapse approaches, we need analyses of the previously unthinkable outcomes that have become reality with profound implications for current and future generations and that our systems of governance have yet to address properly. Four such outcomes come to mind.

Europe's Fake Normal
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 8/6/13
This summers sense of economic normality in Europe is neither natural nor necessarily tenable in the long term, because it reflects temporary and potentially reversible factors. If Europe does not return to addressing its economic challenges in a more comprehensive manner, the current calm may quickly give way to renewed turmoil.

Ireland and the Austerity Debate
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 7/1/13
People on both sides of the austerity debate are trying to position Ireland as the poster child for their case. Though neither side can claim victory, this tug-of-war illustrates the complex range of arguments in play and highlights why conclusive economic policy making is proving so elusive.

The Threat to the Central-Bank Brand
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 6/4/13
For the last 30 years, Western central banks have used their "brand" to help maintain low and stable inflation: by signaling their intention to contain price pressures, they would alter expectations and behavior. But, as corporate executives know, brand management is a tricky affair, particularly when popular sentiment overshoots.

Reinvigorating Egypt's Economy
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 5/20/13
While blaming the revolution is not a persuasive explanation for Egypts current economic woes, its appeal to many Egyptians is understandable. Over the last few months, their economic situation has gone from bad to worse.

New Normal ... Morphing
by Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, 5/14/13
The New Normal has morphed to include consequential elements of a "stable disequilibrium." In the midst of notable multi-speed dynamics, the global economy as a whole is muddling along a road that will give way over the next three to five years to one of two stark alternatives: either sustainable global growth, institutional and political renewal in the West and safe deleveraging; or growth shortfalls that cause financial instability, fuel greater social tensions, accentuate political dysfunctions and complicate debt traps.

The Japanese Experiment
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 5/3/13
Weeks into Japans paradigm shift in economic policy, optimism that the country may end a quarter-century of economic stagnation is balanced by fears that the authorities new approach may make things worse. And, while debate naturally focuses on Japans internal maneuvers, the tipping point may lie abroad.

The Global Growth Quest
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 4/10/13
The last few years have highlighted the declining potency of long-standing growth models. Moreover, the search for more robust growth models will take much longer and be more complicated than many recognize especially as the world economy pivots away from unfettered globalization and high levels of leverage.

Global Markets Time Factor
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 3/21/13
In recent months, the dichotomy between booming financial markets and sluggish economies (and dysfunctional politics) has loomed large. The critical element of time and who controls it could well mean the difference between an orderly global resolution of todays ongoing financial problems and a return to serious trouble.

Transatlantic Trade's Transformative Potential
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 3/7/13
A "Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership" between the US and Europe has the potential to transform global trade and multilateral organizations to the benefit of all. But this opportunity could be squandered, owing to the short-term mindset that now encumbers the West and the multilateral organizations that it dominates.

Beggar Thy Currency Or Thy Self?
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 1/24/13
One need not be an economist to figure out that, while all currencies can depreciate against something else (like gold, land, and other real assets), by definition they cannot all depreciate against each other. Yet, when push comes to shove, country after country is being dragged into a negative dynamic of competitive depreciation.

PIMCO's Secular Forum Preview
by Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, 1/23/13
It is almost time again for PIMCO's Secular Forum a critical part of the firm's investment process. This annual event, which takes place each May, brings together our investment professionals from around the world to debate and specify the key themes that we believe will affect the global economy and, consequently, our investment strategies over the next three to five years from asset allocation and relative value positioning to returns expectations and risk management.

How the Platinum Coin Could Work (or Backfire)
by Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, 1/11/13
The unusual move of minting a large platinum coin might shock politicians into cleaning up the fiscal mess. But the rest of the world may see it as inflationary.

The Political Economy of 2013
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 1/3/13
Watching America's national leaders scramble in the closing days of 2012 to avoid a "fiscal cliff" that would plunge the economy into recession was yet another illustration of an inconvenient truth: messy politics remains a major driver of global economic developments. This will become even more evident worldwide in 2013.

Farewell to Inflation Targeting?
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 12/21/12
In a four-day period in mid-December, three seemingly unrelated developments suggested that modern central banking is in the midst of an historic change. To the extent that this shift gains momentum which appears likely it will affect economic performance, the functioning of markets, and asset-price valuations.

Europes Economic War of Attrition
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 12/3/12
During the war of attrition that followed Egypt's defeat in the June 1967 war with Israel, underlying tensions festered. While the parallels with today's European debt crisis are far from perfect the threat is economic rather than military there is a real sense of no peace and no war.

The Other Financial Crisis
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 11/2/12
Two variants of financial crisis are continuing to wreak havoc on Western economies: the sovereign debt crisis, involving governments; and a less visible one at the level of small and medium-size businesses and households. Until both are addressed properly, the West will remain burdened by sluggish growth.

Keep up the pressure the US jobs crisis is not yet over
by Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, 10/5/12
The monthly US employment report has evolved steadily: once a lagging indicator of the underlying state of the economy, it is now seen more as a leading indicator of economic, political and social trends. Friday's data tell us, for once, rather good news.

Gaming US Fiscal Reform
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 10/1/12
The need to address America's fiscal situation has just been magnified by a warning from Moody's that the US could lose its top credit rating if Congress fails to make progress on medium-term fiscal reforms. But why didn't the imposition of a "fiscal cliff" in 2011 succeed in focusing US politicians' minds?

Back-to-School Letter to the US Congress
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 9/4/12
What if members of the US Congress, now returning from their summer recess, were to receive a "back to school" memorandum from concerned citizens? At a minimum, it should call on Congress and the president to converge on a multi-prong, multi-year policy initiative that makes simultaneous advances in six critical areas.

Europe's Unstable Hammock
by Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, 8/20/12
This summer I have been asked a lot about Europe -- not so much by economists but by others concerned that the lingering crisis there would make their daily economic life even more challenging. In responding to these questions, I have often struggled to summarize in a few sentences the causes of Europe's existential crisis, let alone what is likely to occur next (including elements of a solution) -- that is until I tried to use a hammock.

Remarks to the NBER-Sloan Conference on the European Crisis
by Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, 8/1/12
We believe that this intersection between what economists and policymakers know - is a critical one to get right, and not only for a long-term investor like PIMCO. You see, unless there is a strong economic anchor, policymakers (and their political bosses) will lack the conviction and foundation needed to take difficult decisions and explain them well to citizens. So it is crucial for both sides to know what is known - and also to recognize, to the extent possible, the known unknowns.

America's Constrained Choice
by Mohamed El-Erian of Project Syndicate, 8/1/12
By the time the next US presidential term starts in January 2013, the incumbent will have only limited room for maneuver on economic policy. The real choice concerns the social policies that should accompany a broadly similar set of economic measures; and, here, the differences between the candidates are highly consequential.

Low Interest Rates Are Not Enough
by Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, 7/25/12
Welcome to what could be called "GGIRC," the great global interest rate convergence whereby interest rates steadily converge to zero in many countries around the world, both advanced (other than the crisis European economies) and emerging (other than the persistent financial basket cases). In theory this is a good thing for a global economy. In practice, however, the situation is much more complicated and not so benign.

Can Emerging Markets Save the World Economy?
by Mohamed El-Erian and Michael Spence of PIMCO, 6/8/10
High growth and financial stability in emerging economies are helping to facilitate the massive adjustment facing industrial countries. But that growth has significant longer-term implications. If the current pattern is sustained, the global economy will be permanently transformed. Specifically, not much more than a decade is needed for the share of global GDP generated by developing economies to pass the 50 percent mark when measured in market prices.
Results 101–135 of 135 found.