In my recent piece, “Japan's Lost Decades,” I examined why Japan's GDP is smaller than it was in 1995 and why it took 35 years for its stock market to set its recent record high.
Given that many people consider gold prices to be a macro barometer, reflecting trends in the economy, inflation, currency, and geopolitics, let’s identify the driving force behind the recent surge in the price of gold.
Continuing down our path will lead to Japan circa 1989.
Easy financial conditions and tight borrowing conditions make monetary policy difficult for the Fed to balance.
Rumors are floating that a new variation of QE will help bridge the Treasury’s liquidity shortfalls.
The labor market is the most important leading indicator of consumption, and of the ability of the bougie broke to continue to be bougie instead of flat-out broke!
The Fed is talking about cutting rates and reducing QT. The only rationale for it in such an environment is a concern with liquidity problems.
Every man, woman, and child on planet Earth must spend about $45 on Apple products yearly to justify its valuation.
None of the Magnificent Seven companies existed in the heyday of the Nifty Fifty, but a unique valuation and narrative thread aligns the companies.
Could Toyota, not Tesla, be at the forefront of a significant technological advance for automobiles?
At its core, inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. That was the case in 2020 through 2022. This is not the case anymore.
We move on to the recent inflation that was kicked off by the pandemic. This summary allows us to appreciate better the similarities and differences between now and 50 years ago.
The Fed may have set the inflation fire, but the same Fed under Paul Volcker also helped extinguish it. I will examine the change in mindset at the Fed in the mid- to late 1970s.
To properly assess whether a repeat of 1970s-era inflation is likely, we must first understand why inflation was rampant during that period.
Today's popular narrative is a growing consensus for the Fed to engineer a soft landing and a “Goldilocks” economy.
Can the Magnificent Seven retain its crown? Or will some subset of the 493 other S&P 500 stocks and their neglected sectors take the throne in 2024?
If the prices of the magnificent seven outperformed their fundamentals, it will be much harder for a repeat performance in 2024.
Stock returns over the next 10 years may likely be lower than bond returns.
How might stocks and bonds perform during the pause and eventually when the Fed cuts rates?
The problem is not a deficit or a debt-issuance problem. It's an interest rate problem.
The labor market is undoubtedly deteriorating and sending signals that have been historically valuable warnings that a recession is coming.
Given the likelihood that economists are again myopic in their inflation forecasts and bond traders are betting on such projections, I see a day soon when a disinflationary or deflationary reality hits the bond market and bond yields plummet.
Whether retirement savers in TDFs know it or not, and I presume most don't, they are mindlessly investing their wealth.
The relationship and the recent divergence between real rates and stock valuations is critical. Be ready for the historical trend to reassert itself.
This article discusses one of my favorite bond fair-value models to show you the true bond-yield signal.
The odds of a unicorn spraying rainbows across the sky and the government running a surplus are the same: zero percent.
This is the 25th anniversary of the collapse of LTCM, so let’s reflect on the similarities between that debacle and what might unfold in the capital markets today.
A financial crisis, following the 5.50% hike in Fed funds and similar increases in all bond yields, is virtually inevitable.
Can the economy grow 2.0% to 2.5% faster per year over the next 10 years than the last 30 years? I don't think so.
Normalizing economic activity and the slow but steadily growing lag effect will result in a recession.
Investors believe that U.S. government debt is risk free. Why shouldn't they? Every economic and financial textbook, media outlet, and bond guru says so.
Michael Lebowitz: Inflation, deficits and QT don’t mean higher yields
Entrenched long-term economic growth trends and low inflation, coupled with high and increasing leverage, all but ensure lower interest rates. This article defends that thesis and helps us better appreciate the bearish concerns weighing on bond traders.
What if I told you that CPI is effectively at 2% now? Would the Fed's policy stance remain the same?
Personal consumption growth rates are showing signs of fatigue. Given it consistently accounts for more than two thirds of economic activity, it's worth exploring the state of the consumer.
History, analytical rigor, and logic argue that long-term buy-and-hold investors should shift their allocations from stocks toward bonds.
The Fed and government can ill afford to maintain today’s interest rates.
Bond yields well above implied and historical inflation rates are a great opportunity.
Investors will not be willing to pay an above-average valuation for what will seem like below-average profit growth.
History tells us to ignore the Fed’s and market forecasts and anticipate a rate-cutting cycle.
Will this yield curve inversion lead to continued economic growth and avoid a recession?
I share valuable tools to improve the odds of success using a relative-rotation strategy.
The Eurozone just entered a recession as the region posted two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The manner in which it entered a recession is a bit quirky.
Relative rotation entails shifting among stocks, sectors, and stock factors. The strategy adds significant value to portfolio management if done well.
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are the next step in financial innovation. The government will do what it deems in its best interests. CBDCs will replace physical currency; it's just a question of when.
The Fed failed to recognize the danger of its loose monetary policy in 2021. We are seeing its pernicious effect, as the money supply and velocity combined to inflict non-transitory inflation.
Long-term Treasury bonds are an excellent investment. But timing the purchase of bonds is difficult because three headwinds are keeping rates higher.
With the Fed purposely trying to slow economic growth and a banking crisis in full swing, do the heightened risks argue for accepting the current bond yields and reducing equity exposure?
Bank stocks have underperformed conservative sectors and the broader S&P 500. Despite the broad risks, there are good banks that can be investment worthy.
Four reasons, the rule of law, liquid financial markets, and economic and military might, all but guarantee the death of the dollar will not occur anytime soon.
