“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” —Vladimir Lenin The reflation move since November has been aggressive but appears more right than wrong.
We see little probability of high core inflation rates in the eurozone, but instead a gradual increase toward the ECB target of just below 2% over the next few years.
In the latest edition of “Global Macro Shifts,” the Templeton Global Macro team explores Latin America’s failed experiments with populism and the important lessons those experiences have for the developed world.
A look at what normalized price-to-earnings ratios are telling us about valuations overseas.
While few anticipated the British vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump's election as US president, neither outcome should have been all that surprising: disaffected voters were rejecting economic models that had produced high levels of inequality. The question now is what will replace those models.
The fourth quarter and 2016 brought several surprises to investors. Fortunately, many of those surprises were positive. The first surprise came earlier last year when the British decided to exit the Euro (Brexit). While initial market reaction was negative, the proceeding weeks that followed was a strong rally for equity investors around the world.
For many years “alpha” – outperformance of the market on a risk-adjusted basis – was the Holy Grail of investment. Almost all money managers claimed they could produce it. It turned out that few could. Now a new Holy Grail: diversification. But there is little agreement as to what it means.
At a time when the US is poised to turn inward, China’s economic performance is more important globally than ever. Whether China can achieve sustainable growth patterns in the coming years will depend on several key factors, the most important being internal
Since the end of World War II, the hierarchy of economic priorities has been relatively clear: build a prosperous and open world order first, then try to generate inclusive and sustainable national growth patterns. Now, a reversal seems to be underway, with far-reaching consequences for the global economy.
Depending on whom you ask, inequality is driven by globalization, tax policies, crony capitalism or some other macro-economic force. But what if something more sinister is preventing poor people from advancing?