Generating consistent returns under uncertain conditions is a challenge. Can multi-asset strategies make the job a little easier? We think so. But a lot depends on how they’re designed.
The US Congressional Budget Office has estimated that some 32 million people would lose their formal insurance coverage in the next decade under the various proposals to replace "Obamacare." But it is important to understand just what that would mean in practice, and how much it would actually affect health outcomes.
Anyone thinking that we may get a repeat of the spectacular 2001-2008 and 2009-2011 rallies in commodities may have to think again, at least that’s what’s being hinted at by many of the long-term technical indicators. You could say it depends on what the definition of the word “is” is, to quote a well-known Clintonian expression. In this case, it all depends on what the direction of the secular trend is, as we explain later.
Even if China opened its markets fully to US goods and services, the total US trade deficit would not change. But focusing on imbalances with individual countries can nonetheless lead to desirable policy changes, as the Trump administration's approach to China has shown
Stock market volatility is unusually low these days. Does that mean investors are complacent? We don’t think so. In fact, some risk indicators suggest market participants may be less relaxed than they seem.
A major anxiety amongst stock market participants revolves around two key factors that appear to be on a collision course. The first is an overvalued stock market. The second, is an emerging trend of rising interest rates.
Reducing the US trade deficit requires Americans to save more or invest less. On their own, policies that open other countries’ markets to US products, or close US markets to foreign products, will not change the overall trade balance.
Despite uncertainty about global politics and policy, stock markets are soaring and volatility is low. Does this mean it’s time for investors to double down on growth-oriented assets? Not necessarily.
Dramatic growth offers significant opportunity for the index fund industry, but not without its risks. As assets move from active to passive management, what systemic danger lurks? What market disruptions might occur with a concentration of assets backed by monolithic indexes on autopilot?
Trump. Brexit. There were plenty of big stories last year. But the one that may matter most for your portfolio in 2017—and how you manage risk—is how markets responded to these surprises.