Advisors will learn how using factors and alternative investments that have premiums that are unique and have evidence of persistence, pervasiveness, robustness, implementability, and intuitive risk- or behavioral-based explanations for why we should expect the premiums to persist in the future can lead to the building of more efficient portfolio that also reduce tail risks. You will learn which factors from the over 600 in the literature should be considered and which alternatives out of the many available should be used and why.
The underperformance of Buffett’s Berkshire stock (BRK.A) relative to the S&P 500 over the last 10 years is virtually fully explained by the negative performance of the value factor over that period.
At the start of 2017, I compiled a list of predictions that market gurus had made for the upcoming year, along with some items I heard frequently from investors, for a sort of consensus on the year’s “sure things.” As is my practice, I will give a score of +1 for a forecast that came true, a score of -1 for one that was wrong, and a 0 for one that was basically a tie.
While U.S. equity valuations clearly are at historically high levels, is the outlook as bleak as it seems? Perhaps not. Let’s see why that is the case.
Economic theory posits that investors require high expected returns when cyclical consumption is low in economic contractions and low expected returns when cyclical consumption is high in economic expansions. New research is consistent with that theory.
There isn’t convincing evidence that a style-timing strategy, based on business cycles, can be expected to be profitable going forward.
There are logical explanations for why the size premium may have shrunk. But there also remain simple, intuitive, risk-based explanations for why the premium should persist.
Diminished cognitive skills, often the result of Alzheimer’s disease, are the greatest threat to the financial stability of your older clients, particularly those over age 65. A new book directed to advisors provides the tools to identify and overcome those threats.
In biblical tradition, the four horsemen of the apocalypse are a quartet of immensely powerful entities personifying the four prime concepts – war, famine, pestilence and death – that drive the apocalypse. For today’s investors, the equivalent is historically high equity valuations, historically low bond yields, increasing longevity and, as a result, the increasing need for what can be very expensive long-term care.
At least for tax-advantaged investors, dividends are irrelevant: They are neither good nor bad in terms of forward-looking return expectations. Therefore, while there is no reason to exclude dividend-paying stocks, focusing solely on them leads to less diversified (less efficient) portfolios.