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Correction Awakens Sleeping Bears, Plunging Oil and Dollar Spikes
by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management, 10/2/14
Since the end of 2012, the S&P 500 has been on an inexhaustible rise despite rising geopolitical tensions, extremely cold weather and weak economic data. The driver, of course, has been the massive liquidity inflows from the Federal Reserve that have catapulted the markets from their previous upward bullish trend into an accelerated push. This is shown in the chart below.

Five Things To Ponder: Valuations, Triggers & Inequality
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live, 1/25/14
I was thinking about valuations, profits and what could cause a real correction in the markets. That is the premise behind todays "Things To Ponder" for your weekend homework.

No Recession Now - But When?
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live, 8/23/12
There have been a few calls as of late (Hussman, ECRI, Shilling) stating that we are currently in the next recession. Then there is everyone else. While the "optimistic" outlook is always more enjoyable to listen to - the problem is that the current "no recession" view is primarily predicated on current quarter growth rates looked at in isolation. These data points are then extrapolated into continuous future economic expansion.

Sex, Money and Largesse: The Hidden Depression
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live, 5/15/12
"Sex" and "Money" are probably two of the most powerful words in the English language. First, those two words got you to look at this article. They also sell products, books and services from "How To Have Better Sex" to "How To Make More Money" ostensibly so you can have more of the former. Unfortunately, they are also the two primary causes of divorce in the country today.

Likely Triggers of the Next Recession
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live, 5/3/12
The conjecture about the next recession has raged ever since the end of the last one. Will it be in 2012 or 2013 or, if you believe the many mainstream economists' estimates, never? Historically speaking, recessions have occurred on average of about every 6-8 years regardless of monetary or fiscal policies, the strength of the economy or global peace - they occurred nonetheless. There is really no argument whether there will be a recession in our future. The only question is the timing and cause of it. The latter point is the most important. Recessions do not just happen. They need a push.

Impatience Will Lead To Our Demise
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live, 4/25/12
What is both disturbing and disappointing is the lack of foresight exhibited by the media and political leaders of not only Europe but the U.S. as well. It should not be a surprise to anyone that the austerity regimen, agreed to last month as a long term solution to Europe's sovereign debt crisis, is going to cause economic growth to slow. We have been very vocal about this point. Austerity measures cannot be imposed when an economy is saddled by rising debt costs and high unemployment. It will reduce economic output and therefore requires a strongly growing economy to offset the drag.

10 More Years of Low Returns
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live, 4/17/12
Ten more years of low returns in the stock market. If you are one of the millions of baby boomers headed into retirement-start saving more and spending less because the stock market won't bail you out. I will explain why this is the likely future ahead for investors. In this weekends newsletter I wrote that "If you put all of your money into cash today and dont look at the market for another decade you will be better off..."I realize that this statement is equivalent to heresy where Wall Street is concerned but there is one reason behind my apparent madness - the power of reversion.

Media Headlines Will Lead You To Ruin
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live, 2/22/12
Two weeks ago Barron's ran the cover page of "Dow 15,000". Over the weekend Alan Abelson ran a column titled "Everyone In The Pool". Today, CNBC leads with "Dow 13,000 May Finally Lure Investors Back Into Stocks". Unfortunately, for most investors, the CNBC headline is probably right. Investors, on the whole, have a tendency to do exactly the opposite of what they should do when it comes to investing: "Buy High and Sell Low." The reality is that the emotions of greed and fear do more to cause investors to lose money in the market than being robbed at the point of a gun.

Markets Surge As World Engages In Global Bailout
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live, 11/30/11
Today, the remaining survivors of the global financial rout have coordinated an "all in" gamble to save the world from the next impending crisis. This morning's announcement that the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Bank of Canada will lower the rates on currency swaps as well as lower pricing on existing US Dollar swaps provides a massive liquidity canon for the global financial system. While the markets are surging, the important take away here is that the world is in FAR WORSE shape than has previously been discussed.

Understanding Federal Debt: Point - Counter Point
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 10/21/11
Once the debt required to create $1 of GDP growth exceeded $1, the rate of economic growth in the U.S. has been on a steady decline. Unfortunately, while debt was accumulated and savings depleted in order to sustain an extraordinary lifestyle for the last three decades, the ability to create productive investment has been depleted. The fiscal and monetary policies implemented by the last five administrations have left the country in a far weaker state, as each President continued the failed policies from the one before. Now we must deal with the issues.

Bearish Sentiment Abounds
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live, 10/7/11
The bears have control of Wall Street and have mauled stocks for the past five months. Now with bearish sentiment running amok, is it time to begin investing back into the market for "longer term" investors? Lately there have been numerous analysts and media outlets touting the cheapness of the markets based on forward earnings expectations. The problem with that premise is that it is highly likely that those expectations are too lofty considering the economic slowdown currently in progress. Furthermore, valuation models are horrible "timing" indicators for both traders and investors.

The Great American Economic Lie
by Lance Roberts of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 9/15/11
The idea that the economy has grown at roughly 5% since 1980 is a lie. In reality the economic growth of the U.S. has been declining rapidly over the past 30 years supported only by a massive push into deficit spending. From 1950-1980 the economy grew at an annualized rate of 7.7%. This was accomplished with a total credit market debt to GDP ratio of less than 150%. The CRITICAL factor to note is that economic growth was trending higher during this span, going from roughly 5% to a peak of nearly 15%. The end game of three decades of excess is upon us.

Boomers Are Going To Be A Real Drag
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 8/26/11
Many may scoff at the Fed's report that stock prices will not recover to their 2010 highs until 2027. The migration of "baby boomers" into retirement, combined with sustained high unemployment, low savings rates and a weak economy, does not bode well for strong financial markets into the future. While there are hopes that the economy will recover in spite of the abundance of factors building against it, the reality is that we may be dealing with the "Japanese Experience".

Are We Headed For A Second Recession?
by Caroline Corbett & Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 7/27/11
Is a second recession in so short of a time in the offing? It certainly seems that way. The hope for a continued recovery has grown dim lately as many of the economic indexes are moving towards contractionary territory. In the words of David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, "one small shock" could send us into a second recession. With the recent release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, our proprietary economic index is just one small step away from crossing the 35 mark which has always been a pre-cursor to recession.

Tax Reform: The Overlooked Solution
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com), 7/20/11
The "wealthy", defined by the current administration as those making more than $250,000 a year, also comprise the largest percentage of small business owners - the group that creates the majority of jobs. When you look at the data, they are already paying more than their "fair share". The top 10% of wage earners pay more than 70% of all of the taxes while the top 25% covers almost 90%. Here is my "radically moderate" view point: Tapping the people who already pay 90% of the tax bill will not create more revenue. On the contrary, it will cause further economic weakness.
Results 701–715 of 715 found.