Currency Strategist Van Luu shows how thoughtful management of currency risks and opportunities may help reach investing objectives, despite the low return environment.
The worst economic recovery of the post-war period will continue to be restrained by a consumer sector burdened by paltry income growth, a low and falling saving rate, and an increasingly restrictive Federal Reserve policy. Additionally, with the extremely high level of U.S. government debt and deteriorating fiscal situation, the economy is unlikely to benefit from any debt-financed tax changes. Finally, from a longer-term perspective, the recent natural disasters are an additional constraint on economic growth.
“Dual mandate” is one of the most commonly used phrases in U.S. central banking. The current Chair of the Federal Reserve often mentions it in both speeches and testimony to Congress. Not surprisingly, this is an extremely hot topic in monetary economics, and execution of this mandate has profound significance.
In the era after the Financial Crisis, pundits, investment commentators, and the media falsely maintained a constant proclamation that interest rates were just about to rise and that the collapse of the bond market was imminent. When the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) first lowered interest rates to 0%, the pundits proclaimed irresponsibility and that inflation would skyrocket.
The Federal Reserve has initiated the fifteenth tightening cycle since 1945 (Chart 1). Conspicuously, in 80% of the prior fourteen episodes, recessions followed, with outright business contractions being avoided in just three cases.
Emerging Markets rebound after post-election "Trump slump," indicating that Trump’s economic policies may benefit some emerging markets countries and assets.
During the next two decades, an estimated 76 million baby boomers – the bulge of the Western population born between 1946 and 1964 – will begin the process of going from growing and accumulating earnings to retiring and distributing their wealth.
The 2016 presidential election has brought about widely anticipated changes in fiscal policy actions.
We keep getting good news about employment and the labor market. But we rarely see the less optimistic numbers.
The outcome of the national election does not change our view on the trajectory of the economy for the next four to six quarters.