Lately, my life has been completely packed with speeches, meetings, and in-depth, often lengthy, conversations. Plus ongoing research and writing, of course. It all culminated Thursday afternoon at the beginning of a business meeting with the leadership team from a firm that will become a significant new business partner.
Though the seething pits of humanity at the New York Stock Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange, with their traders all shouting at each other, are largely things of the past, that is still what markets basically are: a bunch of people shouting different things. A market price is the price at which the same amount of people are buying as are selling.
During the third quarter, the economy continued its slow, low inflationary expansion and the equity market continued to gain ground. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by an estimated 2.5%, and inflation hovered around 2.0%.
I don’t want to be glib, but our educational system is largely a failure in producing children and young adults ready for the future. Why we would think that more of that would be useful? What we need to do is completely rethink the whole concept of what we call education.
When world leaders talk, markets react. And with social media becoming mainstream, politicians have a new way of getting their message to the masses.
Current market valuations are consistent with negative expected returns for the S&P 500 over the coming 10-12 years, with a likely market loss of more than -60% in the interim.
About 100 years ago, Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in the world by virtue of its fertile land. Its economy thrived by shipping beef and grains around the world. But economic and political turmoil through the 1930s sowed the seeds of populism — the effects of which have lasted decades.
The Fed will enter uncharted waters as it begins to reduce its balance sheet, in addition to raising short-term interest rates. How should investors respond?
It is extremely difficult for an active manager to buy the best companies and/or short the worst companies and show much outperformance relative to the passive index funds. No matter how much research you do, no matter how well you know those companies, your research is not giving you an edge over the massive movement to passive investing.
Nearly a decade after the onset of the global financial crisis, real economic growth remains constrained by high levels of household debt, particularly for those in the bottom 80% of the income distribution. The build-up of indebtedness in these households that largely pre-dated the crisis continues to cast a shadow over the real economy.