U.S. fiscal policy has become unmoored, and it will be difficult to steer it safely back to shore.
Federal Reserve officials like to say their policy course is “data-dependent.” That sounds very cautious and intelligent, but what does it actually mean? Which data and who’s interpreting it? Let’s ask a few questions.
I am a traditionalist when it comes to outdoor cooking: wood and charcoal are the only suitable fuels.
Last week’s turbulence shined a harsh spotlight on the stock market. Appropriately so, if that’s where your investments are. But in the hubbub many investors are missing the deeper and far more urgent bond market issues.
It is said we should be careful what we wish for, because we just might get it. Beginning late last week, stocks finally stepped back. Market declines of 5% and even 10% occur with some regularity, even in the midst of long bull intervals
As the Chinese New Year approaches, investors will welcome the year of China A-shares, soon to be included in the MSCI emerging-market (EM) benchmarks. But put careful consideration into determining which funds are actually ready to join the festivities.
For several years, the U.S. economy has produced a “Goldilocks” combination (neither too hot nor too cold) of solid growth with limited inflation. The absence of price pressures, even at very low levels of unemployment, has surprised many observers.
“Animal spirits” were once again at large in global equity markets during the fourth quarter of 2017 as economic growth perked up in many parts of the globe and equity market returns followed in kind.
Rarely do we move directly from boom to bust; but when the shift comes, it can develop quite quickly, even though the transition isn’t usually obvious in real time. As I look at the data and talk to my contacts, I’m beginning to conclude that we’re approaching one of those transitional phases. I think we’ll look back at 2018 as an in-between year… from good times to something eventually not so good.
Given the events of a decade ago, 2018 promises to be a year filled with reminiscence. Chroniclers will recall the signs of the gathering storm: falling U.S. house prices, rising mortgage defaults and spreading institutional failures.