The Second Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 3.0% (3.03% to two decimal places), an increase from 1.2% for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 2.7%.
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month. At this point, before the close on the last day of the month, all three S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — unchanged from last month's triple "invested" signal. Four of the five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), and Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ) — are signaling "invested", unchanged from last month's quadruple "invested" signal.
In this morning's ADP employment report we got the August estimate of 237K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, an increase over July's 201K, which was an upward revision of 23K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the ADP report includes a wealth of information that's worth exploring in more detail.
With today's release of the June S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.1% month over month. The seasonally adjusted national index year-over-year change has hovered between 4.2% and 5.8% for the last twenty-eight months. Today's S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (nominal) reached another new high.
The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through August 16. The headline number of 122.9 was an increase from the final reading of 120.0 for July, a downward revision from 121.1. Today's number was above the Investing.com consensus of 120.3.
Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The average of the five for August is 16.4, up from the previous month's 14.7. It has been in positive territory for eleven consecutive months.
This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for August. The latest general business activity index came in at 17.0, up from 16.8 in July.
The latest new orders number at -6.8% month-over-month (MoM) was lower the Investing.com consensus of -6.0% and its largest loss in two years. The series is up 4.1% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods came in at 0.5% MoM, which was above the Investing.com consensus of 0.4%. The core measure is up 5.6% YoY.
Earlier today the Census Bureau posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments.
This morning's release of the July Existing-Home Sales decreased from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.44 million units and June's figure was revised downward by 10K. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.57 million. The latest number represents a 1.3% decrease from the previous month and a 2.1% increase year-over-year.