Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $18,319 for an annualized real return of 12.17%.
This morning's employment report for April showed a 211K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, surpring forecasts. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 174,000. The unemployment rate ticked downward from 4.5% to 4.4%. The Investing.com consensus was for 185K new jobs and the unemployment rate to inch up to 4.6%. February and March nonfarm payrolls were revised for a total loss of 6K.
This commentary has been updated to include today's release of Nonfarm Employment. April's 211K increase in total nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a combined 6K downward revision for February and March. The unemployment rate ticked downward from 4.5% to 4.4%. The Investing.com consensus was for 185K new jobs and the unemployment rate to inch up to 4.6%.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992. The monthly reports include revisions that go back several months. This report details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the April Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at 57.5 percent, up from 55.2 last month. Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 55.8 percent.
Today we have the ADP April estimate of 177K new nonfarm private employment jobs, a decrease over March's 255K, which was a downward revision of 8K.
The April US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 53.1 percent, up 0.3 percent from the March estimate. The Investing.com consensus was for 52.5 percent. Markit's Services PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
In this morning's ADP employment report we got the April estimate of 177K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, a decrease over March's 255K, which was a downward revision of 8K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the ADP report includes a wealth of information that's worth exploring in more detail.
This update is in response to a standing request for real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite. Here are two overlays — one with the nominal price, excluding dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (which is usually just referred to as the CPI).
Note: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through March. The latest debt level is up 1.7% month-over-month. The current level is at another record high. The March data gives us an additional sense of investor behavior since the start of the new administration.