The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for October came in at 101.1, up 6.0 from the September Final reading of 95.1 and its highest since 2004. Investing.com had forecast 95.0.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for September released this morning showed a slight increase over the August figures. Headline sales came in at 1.6% month-over-month to one decimal. Today's headline number was slightly below the Investing.com consensus of 1.7%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 1.0% MoM. Figures were revised going back to August 2016.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.23%, up from 1.94% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.69%, up fractionally from the previous month's 1.68%.
The Philly Fed's Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (hereafter the ADS index) is a fascinating but relatively little known real-time indicator of business conditions for the U.S. economy, not just the Third Federal Reserve District, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Thus it is comparable to the better-known Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.
Today's release of the September Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at 0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from last month's 0.2%. It is at 2.6% year-over-year, up from 2.4% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.4% MoM, up from 0.1% the previous month and is up 2.2% YoY. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.4% headline and 0.2% core.
Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.
In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present. What we see is essentially the "Boomer Bulge" in employment across time. Those born between 1946 and 1964 continue to grow the employment of the two oldest cohorts. It will be interesting to see how long those two trends continue.
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through August, is now available. The time frame is quite limited compared to the main BLS data series in the monthly employment report, many of which go back to 1948, and the enormously popular Nonfarm Employment (PAYEMS) series goes back to 1939, while the BLS began tracking JOLTS in December 2000. Nevertheless, there are some clear JOLTS correlations with the most recent business cycle trends.
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last week's Employment Report for September. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at -33K.