Based on the December S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 41.7 is 176% above its arithmetic mean, 201% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.8 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.7.

The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.76, down from 1.85 in November.

At the end of December, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 187% above its long-term trend, up from November.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.3 in December, higher than November's 48.4 reading, but keeping the index in contraction territory for the 9th straight month. The manufacturing sector has now contracted for 25 of the past 26 months. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 48.2.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. The latest reading was above the forecasted reading of 48.3.

As of December 31, 2024, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.

The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for November showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The November core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.3%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

Home prices continued to trend upwards in October as the benchmark national index rose for the 21st consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.6% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.1% and YoY fell to -1.5%.

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to its lowest level in 7 months in December. The index dropped to 36.9 from 40.2 in November, marking the third consecutive decline. The latest reading was worse than the 42.7 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a thirteenth straight month.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® pulled back in December. The index decreased to 104.7 this month from November's upwardly revised 112.8. This month's reading was much lower compared to the 112.9 forecasted.

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in November and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.

The U.S. economy grew above expectations during the third quarter of this year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in Q3 2024, according to the third estimate. The latest estimate is above the forecasted 2.8% growth and is below the Q2 2024 GDP final estimate of 3.0%.

FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through November. The latest debt level is at $890.852 billion, the highest level since December 2021. Margin debt is up 9.3% month-over-month (MoM) and up 34.8% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is up 9.3% MoM and up 31.2% YoY.

Industrial production was down 0.1% in November, below economist estimates. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is down 0.9%.

Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In August, the MCSI rose for the first time in 5 months, inching up to 67.94. Meanwhile, the CCI increased to 103.3, its highest level in 6 months.

With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.09% nominal and 0.58% real.

The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation remained at its lowest level since early 2021. The PCE price index, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 2.5% year-over-year, just below the forecasted 2.6% growth. On a monthly basis, PCE inflation was up 0.2% from June, as expected.

The second estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.95%, an acceleration from 1.41% for the Q1 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.48%, a pickup from 0.95% for the Q1 headline number.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q2 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in July to 70.2, its lowest level in history. Pending home sales were expected to inch up 0.2% from the previous month. The index is down 8.5% from one year ago.

Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell to -19 this month from -17 in July. This month's reading was worse than the forecast of -14 and is the lowest reading since May 2020.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) unexpectedly declined to 424.5 in June, just below the all-time high of 424.8 from the previous month. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month and are up 5.1% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 3.3% year-over-year.

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for August. The latest general business activity index came in at -9.7, up from -17.5 last month. This marks the highest level for the index since January 2023 but is the 28th consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory.

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $289.65B in July, the highest level since November. This represents a 9.9% increase from the previous month and better than the expected 4.0% growth. The series is up 1.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were down 0.2% from the previous month and up 0.6% from one year ago.

The July release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000 units, the highest level in fourteen months. The latest reading came in higher than the 624,000 forecast. New home sales are down 10.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 668,000 in June and are up 5.6% from one year ago.

The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index did not decline as much in August following a sharper decline last month. The composite index came in at -3, up from -13 in July. Meanwhile, the future outlook increased to 8.

Existing home sales rose for the first time since February, ending a four-month skid. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 1.3% from June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units in July. This figure came in just above the expected 3.94 million. Existing home sales are down 2.5% compared to one year ago.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.34 in July from -0.09 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June and three categories made negative contributions in July. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was unchanged at -0.06 in July.

Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy. They are essential tools for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses because they allow them to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets. In the week ending on August 15th, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 0.14% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was up 2.45%.

Travel on all roads and streets decreased in June. The 12-month moving average was down 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.40% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.10% MoM and up 0.78% YoY.

In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.396 million in July, the lowest level since June 2020. The latest data was below the forecasted rate of 1.430 million. This marks a 4.0% decrease from June and a 7.0% decline compared to one year ago.

In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.238 million in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The latest data fell short of the forecasted rate of 1.340 million. This marks a 6.8% decrease from June and a 16.0% decline compared to one year ago.

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has three decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey of households.

Household debt rose by $109 billion (0.62%) to $17.80 trillion in Q2 2024. The increase in debt this quarter was largely driven by credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances.

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.

Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q2 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.6%, unchanged from Q1 2024 and remaining at its lowest rate in over two years.

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

The RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average.

In this article, we look at three indicators from the past week: retail sales, industrial production, and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI). At first, these indicators might seem unrelated. However, they all have a role in predicting economic trends.

Advisor Perspectives, a leading publisher and ranked as the #1 eNewsletter for financial advisors by the Erdos & Morgan “FAMOUS” Study (2019-2023) has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q2 2024.

The S&P 500 posted a near-perfect week, with gains every day except Thursday.

Every week I post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, to the initial estimate, which is always revised the following week.

In the week ending on June 3, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 1.09% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.13%.

A bull market occurs when stocks are rising, the economy is expanding, and there is overall optimism towards market conditions. On the contrary, a bear market occurs when stock prices are falling, the economy is contracting, and there is overall pessimism towards market conditions. There are a handful of theories as to where the "bear" and "bull" names originated from for describing the stock market but the one that I find the most helpful is that they are derived from the way the animals attack their opponents. A bull thrusts its horns up in the air; a bear swipes its paws down.