Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
In the week ending June 7th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 248,000, remaining at their highest level in eight months. This is unchanged from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 242,000 forecast.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Bitcoin's closing price has remained above $100,000 for five weeks, the longest streak in history. BTC is up ~17% year to date and is ~1% below its record high from May 2025.
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Gas prices dropped for a third straight week this week. As of June 9th, the price of regular gas was down 2 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of May, the labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, down from 62.6% the previous month.
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through June 9, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.23%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 17.73% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.93%.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in May.
Last week, the labor market took center stage, presenting a nuanced picture of continued resilience alongside subtle signs of softening.
The S&P 500 closed above 6000 for the first time since mid-February. The index posted its second consecutive weekly gain, finishing up 1.5% from the previous Friday.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 6, 2025 at 4.51%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.04% and the 30-year note ended at 4.97%.
The Buffett Indicator, made popular by Warren Buffett, assesses the overall value of the stock market relative to the economy. This video provides the May 2025 update on Buffett Valuation Indicator.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
The latest employment report showed that 139,000 jobs were added in May, down from 147,000 in April but higher than the expected 126,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, as expected.
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since September 2023 as exports increased and imports declined. In April, the trade deficit fell 55.5% to -$61.6B. This marks the largest monthly decline since 1992.
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 36.0% from that peak.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 49.9—below the forecast of 52.0. This marks the first contraction for the index since June 2024.
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 53.7, above the 52.3 forecast. The reading marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion and was a noticeable pickup from April's 17-month low.
The ADP employment report revealed that 37,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in May, down from 60,000 in April. This is the lowest level since March 2023 when there was a reduction of 53,000 jobs. The latest reading was lower than the expected 111,000 addition.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2025 close.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed job openings unexpectedly rose in April, with vacancies increasing to 7.391 million. This marked the first monthly increase since January and was higher than the expected 7.110 million openings. Additionally, hires and layoffs increased, while quits declined.
With the Q1 GDP second estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 207.8%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Based on the May S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 38.7 is 155% above its arithmetic mean, 178% above its geometric mean, and is in the 99th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.89, up from 1.74 in April.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 26.4 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 35.0.
At the end of May, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 164% above its long-term trend, up from 145% in April. This is the largest variance in three months.
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In May, the MCSI was unchanged at 52.2, ending its four-month streak of declines. Meanwhile, the CCI jumped to 98.0, its largest monthly increase in over four years.
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of May 31, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.44%.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.5 in May, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a third straight month. The latest reading was below the forecast of 49.3.
U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in May, but tariffs and trade policy continued to dominate the sector's landscape. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fifth straight month in May at 52.0. The latest reading was lower than the 52.3 forecast.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of May 23rd, the index was at 7.708, down 1.292 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.5%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Consumer sentiment was unchanged from April, ending four straight months of declines. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remained at 52.2 in May, the fourth lowest reading on record.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a second straight month to its lowest level in four months. The index sank to 40.5 this month from 44.6 in April, falling short of the 45.1 forecast. The latest reading marks the 18th consecutive month the index has contracted.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in April and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
