Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

Inflation rose slightly in November. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.75% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in at 3.3% as expected.

Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In August, the MCSI rose for the first time in 5 months, inching up to 67.94. Meanwhile, the CCI increased to 103.3, its highest level in 6 months.

With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.09% nominal and 0.58% real.

The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation remained at its lowest level since early 2021. The PCE price index, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 2.5% year-over-year, just below the forecasted 2.6% growth. On a monthly basis, PCE inflation was up 0.2% from June, as expected.

The second estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.95%, an acceleration from 1.41% for the Q1 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.48%, a pickup from 0.95% for the Q1 headline number.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q2 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in July to 70.2, its lowest level in history. Pending home sales were expected to inch up 0.2% from the previous month. The index is down 8.5% from one year ago.

Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell to -19 this month from -17 in July. This month's reading was worse than the forecast of -14 and is the lowest reading since May 2020.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) unexpectedly declined to 424.5 in June, just below the all-time high of 424.8 from the previous month. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month and are up 5.1% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 3.3% year-over-year.

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for August. The latest general business activity index came in at -9.7, up from -17.5 last month. This marks the highest level for the index since January 2023 but is the 28th consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory.

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $289.65B in July, the highest level since November. This represents a 9.9% increase from the previous month and better than the expected 4.0% growth. The series is up 1.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were down 0.2% from the previous month and up 0.6% from one year ago.

The July release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000 units, the highest level in fourteen months. The latest reading came in higher than the 624,000 forecast. New home sales are down 10.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 668,000 in June and are up 5.6% from one year ago.

The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index did not decline as much in August following a sharper decline last month. The composite index came in at -3, up from -13 in July. Meanwhile, the future outlook increased to 8.

Existing home sales rose for the first time since February, ending a four-month skid. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 1.3% from June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units in July. This figure came in just above the expected 3.94 million. Existing home sales are down 2.5% compared to one year ago.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.34 in July from -0.09 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June and three categories made negative contributions in July. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was unchanged at -0.06 in July.

Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy. They are essential tools for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses because they allow them to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets. In the week ending on August 15th, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 0.14% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was up 2.45%.

Travel on all roads and streets decreased in June. The 12-month moving average was down 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.40% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.10% MoM and up 0.78% YoY.

In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.396 million in July, the lowest level since June 2020. The latest data was below the forecasted rate of 1.430 million. This marks a 4.0% decrease from June and a 7.0% decline compared to one year ago.

In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.238 million in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The latest data fell short of the forecasted rate of 1.340 million. This marks a 6.8% decrease from June and a 16.0% decline compared to one year ago.

In July, nominal home values increased for a 16th straight months while "real" home values declined for a 3rd consecutive month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $362,481, up 0.04% from the previous month and up 3.35% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.32% month-over-month and -1.86% year-over-year.

Builder confidence fell further in August as a lack of affordability and buyer hesitation continue to slow down the market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, its lowest level of the year. The latest reading came was below the forecast of 43.

The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell into negative territory for the first time since January as manufacturing activity softened overall. In August, the index dropped to -7.0 from 13.9 in July, coming in below the forecast of 5.4. The six-month outlook decreased to 15.4.

Manufacturing activity declined slightly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing August survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was little changed at -4.7. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -5.9.

Over the past two years, we have seen some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Over the past year we have slowly made our way back down but CPI remains elevated. Core CPI is currently sitting at a level last seen in the early 1990s, while headline CPI is near levels seen in the early 2010s.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for July puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.89%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.74% average since the end of the Second World War for the 14th straight month. However, inflation remains above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.83%.

The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 93.7 in July. Despite being the highest level since February 2022, the latest reading marks the 31st consecutive month the index has been below the series historical average of 97.9. The latest reading was higher than the forecast of 1.5.

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has three decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey of households.

The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and nearly one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.

The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of July, the labor force participation rate is at 62.7%, up from 62.6% the previous month.

Our monthly workforce analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 114K.

Household debt rose by $109 billion (0.62%) to $17.80 trillion in Q2 2024. The increase in debt this quarter was largely driven by credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances.

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.

Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q2 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.6%, unchanged from Q1 2024 and remaining at its lowest rate in over two years.

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

The RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average.

In this article, we look at three indicators from the past week: retail sales, industrial production, and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI). At first, these indicators might seem unrelated. However, they all have a role in predicting economic trends.

Advisor Perspectives, a leading publisher and ranked as the #1 eNewsletter for financial advisors by the Erdos & Morgan “FAMOUS” Study (2019-2023) has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q2 2024.

The S&P 500 posted a near-perfect week, with gains every day except Thursday.

Every week I post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, to the initial estimate, which is always revised the following week.

In the week ending on June 3, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 1.09% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.13%.

A bull market occurs when stocks are rising, the economy is expanding, and there is overall optimism towards market conditions. On the contrary, a bear market occurs when stock prices are falling, the economy is contracting, and there is overall pessimism towards market conditions. There are a handful of theories as to where the "bear" and "bull" names originated from for describing the stock market but the one that I find the most helpful is that they are derived from the way the animals attack their opponents. A bull thrusts its horns up in the air; a bear swipes its paws down.

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.

The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in May to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.5% from the previous month to 101.2. While the index does signal softer economic conditions lay ahead, the LEI is currently not signaling a recession.

Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy. They are essential tools.