The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index did not decline as much in August following a sharper decline last month. The composite index came in at -3, up from -13 in July. Meanwhile, the future outlook increased to 8.
Existing home sales rose for the first time since February, ending a four-month skid. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 1.3% from June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units in July. This figure came in just above the expected 3.94 million. Existing home sales are down 2.5% compared to one year ago.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.34 in July from -0.09 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June and three categories made negative contributions in July. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was unchanged at -0.06 in July.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through July. The latest debt level is at $810.84 billion, its highest level since February 2022. Margin debt is up 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) and up 14.2% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is up 0.1% MoM and 11.0% YoY.
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy. They are essential tools for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses because they allow them to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets. In the week ending on August 15th, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 0.14% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was up 2.45%.
Travel on all roads and streets decreased in June. The 12-month moving average was down 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.40% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.10% MoM and up 0.78% YoY.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in July to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.6% from the previous month to 100.4, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.396 million in July, the lowest level since June 2020. The latest data was below the forecasted rate of 1.430 million. This marks a 4.0% decrease from June and a 7.0% decline compared to one year ago.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.238 million in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The latest data fell short of the forecasted rate of 1.340 million. This marks a 6.8% decrease from June and a 16.0% decline compared to one year ago.
In July, nominal home values increased for a 16th straight months while "real" home values declined for a 3rd consecutive month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $362,481, up 0.04% from the previous month and up 3.35% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.32% month-over-month and -1.86% year-over-year.
Industrial production fell 0.6% in July, coming in lower than the expected 0.3% decline. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is down 0.2%.
Nominal retail sales in July were up 0.97% month-over-month (MoM) and up 2.66% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.81% MoM and down 0.25% YoY.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for July revealed headline sales were up 1.0% last month. The latest reading was more than double the expected 0.4% monthly growth in consumer spending.
Builder confidence fell further in August as a lack of affordability and buyer hesitation continue to slow down the market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, its lowest level of the year. The latest reading came was below the forecast of 43.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell into negative territory for the first time since January as manufacturing activity softened overall. In August, the index dropped to -7.0 from 13.9 in July, coming in below the forecast of 5.4. The six-month outlook decreased to 15.4.
Manufacturing activity declined slightly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing August survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was little changed at -4.7. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -5.9.
Over the past two years, we have seen some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Over the past year we have slowly made our way back down but CPI remains elevated. Core CPI is currently sitting at a level last seen in the early 1990s, while headline CPI is near levels seen in the early 2010s.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for July puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.89%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.74% average since the end of the Second World War for the 14th straight month. However, inflation remains above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.83%.
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 93.7 in July. Despite being the highest level since February 2022, the latest reading marks the 31st consecutive month the index has been below the series historical average of 97.9. The latest reading was higher than the forecast of 1.5.
Economic indicators are released every week to provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy.
What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has three decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey of households.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and nearly one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of July, the labor force participation rate is at 62.7%, up from 62.6% the previous month.
Our monthly workforce analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 114K.
Household debt rose by $109 billion (0.62%) to $17.80 trillion in Q2 2024. The increase in debt this quarter was largely driven by credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances.
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In June, the trade deficit shrank 2.5% to -$73.11B. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -$72.50B.
The July U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 55.0, just below the forecast of 56.0. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the 18th straight month.
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 38.1% from that peak.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.
The ADP employment report revealed that 122K nonfarm private jobs were added in July, the smallest addition in the past six months. The latest reading came in lower than the expected 147K addition of new private jobs and marks the fourth straight month that private sector hiring has slowed.
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q2 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.6%, unchanged from Q1 2024 and remaining at its lowest rate in over two years.
The RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average.
In this article, we look at three indicators from the past week: retail sales, industrial production, and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI). At first, these indicators might seem unrelated. However, they all have a role in predicting economic trends.
Advisor Perspectives, a leading publisher and ranked as the #1 eNewsletter for financial advisors by the Erdos & Morgan “FAMOUS” Study (2019-2023) has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q2 2024.
The S&P 500 posted a near-perfect week, with gains every day except Thursday.
Every week I post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, to the initial estimate, which is always revised the following week.
In the week ending on June 3, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 1.09% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.13%.
A bull market occurs when stocks are rising, the economy is expanding, and there is overall optimism towards market conditions. On the contrary, a bear market occurs when stock prices are falling, the economy is contracting, and there is overall pessimism towards market conditions. There are a handful of theories as to where the "bear" and "bull" names originated from for describing the stock market but the one that I find the most helpful is that they are derived from the way the animals attack their opponents. A bull thrusts its horns up in the air; a bear swipes its paws down.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 28, 2024 close.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in May to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.5% from the previous month to 101.2. While the index does signal softer economic conditions lay ahead, the LEI is currently not signaling a recession.
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy. They are essential tools.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. What does inflation mean at the micro level — specifically to your household?
Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?
As of Q1 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 171% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 86% since the 2009 trough.
