The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of April 30, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.37%.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
With the release of March's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.42% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.46% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 3.33% nominal and 1.01% real.
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Margin debt is often seen as a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite. High levels of margin debt can signal confidence, but extreme spikes may also indicate excessive speculation, increasing the risk of market instability.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.6% in March and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.7% month-over-month and up 1.4% year-over-year.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.6%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2025 GDP advance estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.
The advance estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.28%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -0.89%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.
The U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years to start off 2025. The BEA"s advance estimate of real gross domestic product showed economic growth decreased at an annual rate of 0.3% in Q1 2025. The latest estimate was lower than the 0.2% forecast and lower than the Q4 final estimate of 2.5%.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in March, marking the lowest level for the index since June. This was consistent with the forecast and a slowdown from 3.0% in February. On a monthly basis, the index was flat, lower than the expected 0.1% growth.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose more than expected in March, experiencing its largest monthly increase in over two years. The index came in at 76.5, a 6.1% jump from the previous month but a 0.6% decline from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.9% month-over-month.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for the first time this year. The index dropped to 44.6 this month from 47.6 in March, falling short of the 45.9 forecast. The latest reading marks the 17th consecutive month the index has contracted.
The ADP employment report revealed that 62,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in April, down from 147,000 in March. The latest reading was lower than the expected 114,000 addition.
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In April, the MCSI fell to 52.2, its lowest level since July 2022. Meanwhile, the CCI dropped to 86.0, is lowest level since May 2020.
March's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed a fewer-than-anticipated job openings, with vacancies falling to 7.192 million. This is the lowest number of openings in six months and below the expected 7.490 million. Additionally, hires and quits saw slight increases, while layoffs declined.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® plunged to its lowest level in nearly five years in April. The index fell to 86.0 this month from March's upwardly revised 93.9, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2008.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in February as the benchmark national index rose for the 25th consecutive month to a 21st straight record high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.9% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.0% and YoY fell to -0.5%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 437.3 in February. U.S. house prices were up 0.1% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.3% growth, and up 3.9% from one year ago. This marks the 30th consecutive monthly increase for the index.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for April. The general business activity index came in at -35.8, its lowest level since 2020. This marks a 19.5 point decline from the previous month and the third straight monthly decline.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.1%, the lowest level in over five years.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity declined modestly in April, with the composite index at -4. This marks the 20th consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 10 in March to 6 in April.
Existing home sales sank in March with their largest monthly decline since 2022. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 5.9% from February, hitting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units in March.
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $315.73B in March. This represents a 9.2% increase from the previous month and a 11.9% rise from one year ago. The latest reading was higher than the projected 2.1% monthly growth.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.03 in March from +0.24 in February. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from February, and three categories made negative contributions in March.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through March. The latest debt level is at $880.316 billion, down 4.3% from February. This is the second straight month the debt level has declined and is the largest monthly drop since October 2023.
New home sales reached a six-month high in March while the median price fell for a second straight month.
Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed further in April, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell nine points this month to -13 after falling ten points in March, marking the largest two-month decline since early 2022. This month's reading was worse than the forecast of -6.
Home values fell for the first time in two years in March, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for an 11th straight month, hitting their lowest level since May 2021.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index one of the most closely watched economic indicators. What does inflation mean at the micro level — specifically to your household?
Four of the nine indexes on our emerging markets watch list have posted gains through April 11, 2025. Chile's IPSA is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 11.2%. Brazil's IBOVESPA is in second with a year to date gain of 6.3% while Mexico's BMV IPC is in third with a year to date gain of 3.5%.
This series has been updated to include the March release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,322, down 5.9% from over 50 years ago.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 31, 2025 close.
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.
In the week ending March 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 221,000. This represents a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 234,000 forecast.
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
This chart series features an overlay of the Four Bad Bears in U.S. history since the equity market peak in 1929. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close. These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.
Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC which includes annual data from 1984 to 2023. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
What is the relationship between education and household income? The Census Bureau’s 2023 annual survey data provides valuable insights into this question. The median household income for individuals aged 25 and older was $82,010, but how does this figure vary based on educational attainment?
The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.
With 2024 behind us, let's revisit the top 10 most-read charts of the year.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy. They are essential tools for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses because they allow them to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets. In the week ending on August 15th, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 0.14% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was up 2.45%.
