5-year, 5-year forward breakeven inflation has historically been in a range between 2-3%. However, over the past year year future inflation expectations have fallen below 2% for the first time since the financial crisis and have bounce around between 1.40% and 2%.
The August JOLTS release was a pretty big disappointment. Expectations were for 5.8 million job openings while the actual data came in at 5.44 million.
We have said before that the most important US employment stat each month is the index of aggregate weekly hours worked. The good news for September is that we saw an improvement in the year-over-year rate of change from 1.05% to 1.63%.
The shale revolution in the US energy sector has flipped US trade data on its head.
The forex market has been relatively calm over the past couple of months. The Gavekal Capital FX Volatility Index has declined since early August and is now at a level that is slightly under the average volatility level since 1980.
China’s role in keeping the global economy from falling into a more severe recession, or even a depression, during the financial crisis is probably greatly underappreciated.