Neither the bulls nor the bears are winning the equity market battle right now. When markets have strong momentum, either positive or negative, than you tend to see big spikes in 20-days highs (when positive) and lows (when negative). Currently, we see neither.
Since the summer of 2015 the long gold, long 10-year US treasury trade bonds has basically been one in the same (silver and treasury bonds have moved in tandem as well).
A primary concern of central bankers is that in a deflationary environment consumers change their expectations regrading the future level of prices.
High yield investors have had a much different experience in 2016 than they did in 2015 (fortunately for them). The high yield spread over 10-year treasury yield blew out from 375 bps in June 2015 to 844 bps in February 2016.
There seems to be several compelling reasons at the moment to mine developed market Asia for new equity investment ideas.
We all know that the Fed has committed to keeping its balance sheet extraordinary large for as long as they feel the weak economy justifies this accommodating position.
5-year, 5-year forward breakeven inflation has historically been in a range between 2-3%. However, over the past year year future inflation expectations have fallen below 2% for the first time since the financial crisis and have bounce around between 1.40% and 2%.
The August JOLTS release was a pretty big disappointment. Expectations were for 5.8 million job openings while the actual data came in at 5.44 million.
We have said before that the most important US employment stat each month is the index of aggregate weekly hours worked. The good news for September is that we saw an improvement in the year-over-year rate of change from 1.05% to 1.63%.
The shale revolution in the US energy sector has flipped US trade data on its head.