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Sixteen Dow Recoveries: Update
by Doug Short, 5/21/10
How does the current Dow recovery compare with major recoveries in the past? Doug Short overlays the first 500 days of sixteen recoveries in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since its creation in 1896 in a new chart, as well as a chart based on Dow daily closes with the sixteen rallies highlighted. The question is whether the rally of the past 14 months is the early stages of a secular bull market, or whether the future will resemble something closer to the early 1900s, the late 1960s-1970s, or something in between.

Learning from the S&P 500 Monthly Moving Averages
by Doug Short, 5/18/10
Doug Short analyzes monthly closes of the S&P 500 since 1950 to back-test several monthly moving average strategies versus buy and hold. The results suggest that in secular bull and bear markets, passive management is a successful strategy on the way up, but is a losing proposition on the way down. The reverse is true for active management with simple moving averages. It's unlikely to outperform buy and hold on the way up, but outperformance on the way down is a virtual guarantee. Unfortunately it's impossible to pin-point those secular tops and bottoms and change strategy on a dime.

Japan's Post-Bubble Rallies
by Doug Short, 5/13/10
Doug Short provides an updated chart that gives a close-up view of cyclical rallies and their durations during Japan's secular bear market, now in its 20th year, as well as a table that documents advances, declines and elapsed time for each cycle.

Market Valuation and the Consumer Price Index
by Doug Short, 5/5/10
In response to a reader question, Doug Short posts a chart displaying real values of the S&P 500 using the 'Alternative CPI' from economist John Williams. The alternative inflation measure, which employs the original methodology used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics before 1982, produces market valuations that are much flatter over time than the official BLS inflation statistics, and lend yet another point of conflict in the perennial debate between the bulls and the bears and the inflationists and deflationists.

Regression to Trend
by Doug Short, 5/3/10
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, overperformance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Doug Short applies some simple regression analysis to this question. A regression trend line drawn through the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 clarifies the secular pattern of variance from the trend ? those multi-year periods when the market trades above and below trend. That regression slope represents an annualized growth rate of 1.7 percent.

Sixteen Dow Recoveries - Another Look
by Doug Short, 4/22/10
This post features a return of Doug Short's analysis of how the Dow?s recovery compares to prior major recoveries, altered to adjust for reader feedback. Short has included an inflation-adjusted overlay chart, removed the 1932 rally (an outlier that scrunches up other rallies), and extended the timeline so we can see what followed. The recovery since March 2009 is the second in the first decade of the 21st century, and it started from a lower low. As the charts show, history has witnessed several other examples of multiple recoveries in relatively close succession with lower starting points.

Sixteen Dow Recoveries
by Doug Short, 4/19/10
How does the current Dow recovery compare with major recoveries in the past? Doug Short created an overlay of the first 500 days of 16 recoveries in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since its creation in 1896 to help answer that very question. Compared to the other 15 rallies at the equivalent point, the current rally is in fourth place. The volatile recovery after the Crash of 1929 leads the pack by a wide margin. Where do we go from here? Some of the historic 500-day rallies went on to substantially higher gains. On the other hand, several of the earliest rallies soon faltered.
Results 401–407 of 407 found.