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Results 201–250
of 407 found.
Market Valuation Indicators: Overvaluation Inreases
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I updated at the beginning of the month. ? The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio ? The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor ? The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost ? The relationship of the S&P Composite to a regression trendline To facilitate comparisons, I've adjusted the two P/E ratios and Q Ratio to their arithmetic means and the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite to its exponential regression.
ECRI Defends its Recession Call
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came in at -3.5 in today's public release of the data through February 10th. This is the sixth consecutive week of improvement (less negative) data for the Growth Index and the highest level (i.e., least negative) since August 26th of last year. However, the underlying WLI decreased fractionally from an adjusted 123.4 to 123.2 (see the third chart below). This is the second week of slippage in the underlying index.
ECRI's Controversial Recession Call: Fifth Consecutive Improvement in the Growth Index
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came in at -3.7 in today's public release of the data through February 10th. This is the fifth consecutive week of improvement (less negative) data for the Growth Index and the highest level (i.e., least negative) since August 26th of last year. The underlying WLI decreased fractionally from an adjusted 123.6 to 123.5
Profit Margin Squeeze: New Update
The accompanying charts offer clues for evaluating the risk of profit margin squeeze in the current economy. One is the ratio of crude to finished goods in the Producer Price Index. The other is an indicator constructed from two data series in the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey through yesterday's release. It is the spread between the Philly Fed's prices paid (input costs) and received (prices charged) data.
ECRI's Puzzling Recession Call: The Growth Index Contraction Eases Yet Again
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -4.3 in its latest reading, data through February 3rd. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -5.3 (a slight downward revision from the previously reported -5.2). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since August 26th of last year. The underlying WLI increased fractionally from an adjusted 123.0 to 123.3.
Syria, Assad and the Arab Spring
Last October I posted a commentary, Libya, Ghaddafi and the Arab Spring, shortly after Ghaddafi's death at the hands of the Libyan National Liberation Army. It was the third major Arab regime to be overthrown in 2011. Since that time Ali Abdullah Saleh has resigned the presidency of Yemen, which remains in a state of turmoil. And the media spotlight is currently on the escalating conflict in Syria.
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Again
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -5.2 in its latest reading, data through January 27. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -6.6 (a slight downward revision from -6.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since late August. The underlying WLI increased fractionally from an adjusted 122.7 to 123.2 (see the third chart below).
Market Valuation Indicators: Overvaluation Inreases
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I updated at the beginning of the month. ? The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio, The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor, The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost, The relationship of the S&P Composite to a regression trendline. These indicators aren't useful as short-term signals of market direction. Periods of over- and under-valuation can last for years. But they can play a role in framing longer-term expectations of investment returns.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for January 2012, which is 1,300.58. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,312.41. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet. ? TTM P/E ratio = 14.3 (14.1) ? P/E10 ratio = 21.3 (21.5)
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.5 in its latest reading, data through January 13. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -8.6, and the underlying WLI rose from an adjusted 121.1 to 123.4 (see the third chart below). The growth index had slipped lower over the past two weeks, but the latest data point is the highest (i.e., least negative) since early September.
Demographic Headwinds: The Decline of Peak Spenders
"S&P 500 to Fall 30-50% in 2012." Dent's grim forecast is primarily based on the demographics of the peak spending years, an age cohort he refers to in the interview as 46-50. Economists and market analysts often think of retiring boomers as the primary drag on the economy with their the transition from the accumulation to the decumulation phase of their life-cycle. But if we understand of the crucial role of consumption for our economic health, a significant decline in the number of peak spenders is a demographic headwind that will challenge us for years to come.
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contracts Further
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -8.4 in its latest reading, data through January 6. The latest public data point is a slightly deeper contraction from last week's -8.2, although the underlying WLI rose a point from 120.2 to 121.2 (see the third chart below). The index had been hovering in a narrow range between -7.4 to -7.8 for the previous seven weeks but has slipped lower over the past two weeks.
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Shows Further Contraction
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -8.2 in its latest reading, data through December 30. The latest public data point is a deeper contraction from last week's -7.6. The index had been hovering in a narrow range between -7.4 to -7.8 for the previous seven weeks but has now slipped lower.
The Great Leading Indicator Smackdown: New Update
Periodically I update a series of overlays comparing the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) and the Conference Board's monthly updates of its index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The most recent LEI update was published on December 22 (data through November), and today we have the latest WLI, based on data through December 30th. As we will see in the charts below, the two indicators continue to exhibit a major divergence.
Market Valuation Indicators: Overvaluation Remains High
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I updated at the beginning of the months. ? The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio. ? The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor. ? The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost. ? The relationship of the S&P Composite to a regression trendline. To facilitate comparisons, I've adjusted the two P/E ratios and Q Ratio to their arithmetic means and the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite to its exponential regression.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for December 2011, which is 1243.32. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,257.60. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet. ? TTM P/E ratio = 13.8 (14.0) ? P/E10 ratio = 20.5 (20.7)
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Virtually Unchanged for Seven Weeks
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.6 in its latest reading, data through December 23. The latest public data point is virtually unchanged from last week's -7.7. The index has been hovering in a narrow range between -7.4 to -7.8 for the past seven weeks. Those of us who follow this indicator are nervously awaiting a confirmation or reversal of the trend.
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Goes Slightly More Negative
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.7 in its latest reading, data through December 16. The latest public data point is fractionally more negative than last week's -7.5. The index has been hovering in a narrow range between -7.4 to -7.8 for the past six weeks.
ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Moderates Fractionally
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.5 in its latest reading, data through December 9. The latest public data point is fractionally less negative than last week's -7.7, which is a downward revision from -7.6. CRI's recession call is, to say the least, quite controversial in financial circles. The perma-bears are generally supportive of the forecast, while the predominantly bullish mainstream financial view ranges from skeptical to dismissive.
ECRI Update: Lakshman Achuthan Explains the ECRI Recession Call
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.6 in its latest reading, data through December 2. The latest public data point is fractionally less negative than last week's -7.8. Yesterday Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's Surveillance Midday. It was sufficiently representative of the ECRI view that it's also available on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its entirely.
ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Reverses Trend and Declines Further
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.8 in its latest reading, data through November 25. The latest public data point is more negative than last week's downwardly revised -7.4 (previously -7.3). Today's update reverses the trend off its interim low of -10.1 on October 14.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for October 2011, which is 1226.41. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,246.96. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
ECRI Recession Watch: Decline in Growth Index Continues to Moderate
The Weekly Leading Index growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute posted -7.3 in its latest reading, data through November 18. The latest public data point is less negative than last week's upwardly revised -7.8 and continues the trend off its interim low of -10.1 on October 14. Earlier this month I posted the November 7th CNBC interview with Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI. I'm again including video because ECRI continues to feature it on their website here, which I see as ongoing evidence that they stand behind their recession forecast.
ECRI Recession Watch: Decline in Growth Index Continues to Moderate
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.9 in its latest reading, data through November 11. The latest public data point is less negative than last week's -8.5 and continues the trend off its interim low of -10.1 on October 14. Last week I posted the November 7th CNBC interview with Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI. I'm again including video because ECRI continues to feature it on their website, which I see as evidence that they stand behind their recession forecast.
ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Decline Moderates
The Weekly Leading Index growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute posted -8.5 in its latest reading. The latest public data point is less negative than last week's -9.4, and trending above its interim low of -10.1 on October 14. ECRI has come under some harsh criticism this past week, starting with a CNBC interview of Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI. About half-way through the interview, the discussion turns into an uninformative debate in which Achuthan speaks of a "contagion among the forward leading indicators" but dodged requests for specifics.
ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Is Off Its Interim Low
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -9.4 in its latest reading, data through October 28, off its interim low of -10.1 set over the previous two weeks. (Note: last week's original level of -10.0 was revised downward to -10.1.) On September 30th, the ECRI publicly announced that the U.S. is tipping into a recession, a call the Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st.Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st.
Market Valuation Indicators: Increased Overvaluation After the October Rally
Below is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I regularly follow. As I've frequently pointed out, these indicators aren't useful as short-term signals of market direction. Periods of over- and under-valuation can last for years. But they can play a role in framing longer-term expectations of investment returns. At present they continue to suggest a cautious long-term outlook and guarded expectations.
ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Virtually Unchanged
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -10.0 in its latest reading, data through October 21, a fractionally change from the previous week's -10.1. On September 30th, the ECRI publicly announced that the U.S. is tipping into a recession, a call the Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st.
WSJ Economists' Q3 GDP Forecasts: 2.1 in Q3 and 2.0 in Q4
One of the big economic announcements in the week ahead will be the Advance Estimate for Q3 GDP. The final number for Q2 GDP was 1.3%. Economists in general are optimistic that Q3 will show an improvement in this broad measure of the economy. The consensus for Q3 is 2.2%. But what sort of distribution of opinions do we find among the economists? Is the range of opinions wide or narrow? Let's review the data in the Wall Street Journal's October survey of economists. Fifty of the 56 economists solicited for survey responded.
Libya, Ghaddafi and the Arab Spring
While the US and Europe have remained fixated on the simmering sovereign debt crisis in Euroland, the Arab world has been experiencing waves of demonstrations, protests and civil wars that have seen the fall of three major regimes thus far in 2011, with several others struggling to find equilibrium. The underlying forces behind the Arab Spring are complex and vary from country to country. But a key factor is demographics, as a glance at the population pyramids below suggests.
ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Drops Further
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has now posted 11 consecutive declines since early August. The interim high of 8.0 was set in the week ending on April 15. The latest reading, data through October 14, is -10.1, down from the previous week's -9.7. For a close look at this movement of this index in recent months, here's a snapshot of the data since 2000.
ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Declines Further
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has posted 10 consecutive declines since early August. The interim high of 8.0 was set in the week ending on April 15. The latest reading, data through October 7, is -9.6, down from the previous week's -8.7. On September 30th, the ECRI publicly announced that the U.S. is tipping into a recession, a call the Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st.
Boomer Demographics: The Shift Ahead
I looked at developments in U.S. demographics from 1980 to the present with a focus on the Boomer bulge. Then I examined current day demographics for several major countries around the globe. I've developed a set of population pyramids for the U.S. that start with 1981 and span7 decades at 10-year intervals using the U.S. Census Bureau data. Let's look at some comparative numbers for these seven snapshots. I've calculated the Elderly Dependency Ratios for each. As this ratio shifts higher, the productive population is increasingly burdened by the cost of entitlement programs.
ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Declines Further
Last week, September 30th, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) publicly announced that the U.S. is tipping into a recession, a call the Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st. One week later, the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the ECRI has posted another week-over-week decline, now at -8.1 from the previous week's -7.2 (latest publicly available data as of September 30). The interim high of 8.1 was set in the week ending on April 15.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for September 2011, which is 1173.88. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1131.42. For the latest earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet. ? TTM P/E ratio = 13.3 (12.9) ? P/E10 ratio = 19.7 (19.0)
ECRI Makes a Recession Call
Today the ECRI publicly announced that the U.S. is tipping into a recession. Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there's nothing that policy makers can do to head it off. ECRI's recession call isn't based on just one or two leading indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading Index, which was the first to turn down before the Arab Spring and Japanese earthquake to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading Index and other shorter-leading indexes.
ECRI Growth Metric: Revised Data, Still Declining
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted another week-over-week decline, now at -6.7 from last week's -6.1, which is an upward revision from -7.1. In fact, with today's release, the publicly available ECRI data has been revised as far back as January 14th, with increasingly significant revisions from Q2 forward. The formula for the ECRI indicators is not published, but my speculation, based on the timing of the revisions, is that the Q2 Fed Flow of Funds release on September 13th occasioned the updates.
ECRI Growth Metric Goes Yet Further Negative
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has now dropped further into negative territory after oscillating in a narrow range (1.5 to 2.1) from late June through the first week of August. Today's update of the publicly available data available (through September 9) now puts the decline at -7.1, down from last week's revised -6.6 (previously -6.2). The interim high of 8.0 was set in the week ending on April 15. For a close look at this movement of this index in recent months, here's a snapshot of the data since 2000.
WSJ Economists' GDP Forecasts: 2.0 in Q3 But Slow Improvement Thereafter
Yesterday the WSJ released the results of their September survey of 56 economists, mostly from major financial firms with a handful from academic institutions. The September survey is available in Excel format here. I spent some time studying the results and have made a little snapshot to help us understand what these mainstream professional economists are forecasting for quarterly GDP for the next six quarters through the end of 2012. The chart below includes the responses of each economist. The six forecast series are arranged horizontally from low to high.
Retail Sales: The "Real" Consumer And Their Recession-Level Spending
The Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that retail sales in August were flat. The first chart shows the complete series from 1992, when the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking the data. I've highlighted recessions and the approximate range of two major economic episodes. The Tech Crash that began in the spring of 2000 had relatively little impact on consumption. The Financial Crisis of 2008 has had a major impact. After the cliff-dive of the Great Recession, the recovery in retail sales has taken us (in nominal terms) 2.9% above November 2007 pre-recession peak.
U.S. Household Incomes: A 43-Year Perspective
The Census Bureau has released the household income data for 2010. It is posted on their website. What I'm featuring in this update is an analysis of the quintile breakdown of data from 1967 through 2010. Most people think in nominal terms, so the first chart below illustrates the current dollar values across the 43-year period (in other words, the value of a dollar at the time receivednot adjusted for inflation). The charts below show income growth over the complete data series. In addition to the quintiles, the Census Bureau includes the mean income for the top five percent of households.
ECRI Growth Metric Drops Yet Deeper into Negative Territory
The Weekly Leading Index growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute has now dropped further into negative territory after oscillating in a narrow range (1.5 to 2.1) from late June through the first week of August. Today's update of the publicly available data available (through September 2) now puts the decline at -6.2, down from last week's revised -4.4. The interim high of 8.0 was set in the week ending on April 15. See the CNBC video clip featuring Lakshman Achuthan, Co-Founder and Chief Operations Officer of ECRI, discussing the risk of a new recession.
The Great Shift From Manufacturing to Services
In honor of Labor Day, which was signed into law as a national holiday in 1894, I spent some time this morning studying a topic I've occasionally mentioned: The shift in the United States from a manufacturing to a services economy. The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics has monthly data on employment by industry categories reaching back to 1939. The first chart below is an overlay of the compete series of employment numbers for the two major categories, manufacturing and services. When I say major, I'm referring to the domination of the labor market by these two industries.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for August 2011, which is 1185.31. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1218.89. For the latest earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
ECRI Growth Metric Drops Deeper into Negative Territory
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) dropped deeper into negative territory after oscillating in a narrow range (1.5 to 2.1) from late June through the first week of August. Today's update, data through August 26, now puts the decline at -4.3, down from last week's revised -2.1. The interim high of 8.0 was set in the week ending on April 15. See the CNBC video clip featuring Lakshman Achuthan, Co-Founder and Chief Operations Officer of ECRI, which aired on Wednesday, August 31st, just before the ADP jobs report.
Recession? No. We're in the Second Great Contraction
Here are some charts of troughs to peaks that show why so many people believe the U.S. is still mired in a recession. For those of us who do accept the NBER recession call, the charts support the characterization of our economic condition as The Second Great Contraction. Since the beginning of quarterly GDP data, which has been tracked since 1947, the U.S. has never had an official recession without having achieved new highs in Real GDP and nonfarm employment. Let's hope that continues. But ultimately the debate over recession boundaries is a minor quibble in the ongoing economic reality.
The ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Growth Metric Slips Further into Negative Territory
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) dropped further into negative territory after oscillating in a narrow range (1.5 to 2.1) from late June through the first week of August. Today's update, data through August 19, now puts the decline at -2.9, down from last week's -0.1. The interim high of 8.0 was set in the week ending on April 15. The published ECRI WLI growth metric has had a respectable record for forecasting recessions and rebounds therefrom. The next chart shows the correlation between the WLI, GDP and recessions.
The ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Growth Metric Goes (Fractionally) Negative
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has been oscillating in a narrow range (1.5 to 2.0 in the latest revision) for the past several weeks. However today's update, data through August 12, has touched negative territory with a -0.1 reading. The interim high of 8.0 was set in the week ending on April 15. The published ECRI WLI growth metric has had a respectable record for forecasting recessions and rebounds therefrom. The next chart shows the correlation between the WLI, GDP and recessions.
Results 201–250
of 407 found.
