Search Results
Results 101–150
of 407 found.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Ultimately my opinion remains unchanged: The ECRIs credibility depends on major downward revisions to the key economic indicators -- especially the July annual revisions to GDP -- that will be sufficient to validate their early recession call. Of course, the July revisions will be quite controversial this year, with some major accounting changes and revisions in annual GDP back to 1929. So if we dont get the downward revisions to support ECRI, they can always question the accounting changes in the revision process.
ECRI Recession Watch: New Update
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.3, up slightly from last weeks 131.0 (revised from 130.9). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 6.6% from 6.4% last week (revised from 6.3%)....
Two weeks ago the company took a new approach to its recession call in its most recent publicly available commentary on the ECRI website: What Wealth Effect?
More...
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments
Ive now updated this commentary to include April Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments. As Ive discussed before, the adjacent thumbnail shows the major spike in incomes triggered by pulling early 2013 income forward in November and December (bonuses, dividends, etc.) to manage the tax risks of the Fiscal Cliff. At this point weve recovered from the post-strategy dip, so the trend going forward will give a more realistic sense of where this indicator is heading.
Recession Watch: ECRI's Weekly Leading Indicator Declines
Essentially ECRI is sticking to its call that a recession began in mid-2012, although the company calls it a "mild" recession, which is quite a shift from their original stance 19 months ago: "...if you think this is a bad economy, you havent seen anything yet."
Recession Watch: ECRI's Weekly Leading Indicator Continues to Show Improvement
Essentially ECRI is sticking to its call that a recession began in mid-2012, although the company calls it a "mild" recession, which is quite a shift from their original stance 19 months ago: "...if you think this is a bad economy, you havent seen anything yet."
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poors "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1,570.70. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,597.57. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poors latest earnings spreadsheet.
Recession Watch: ECRI's Weekly Leading Indicator Rises Again
Essentially ECRI is sticking to its call that a recession began in mid-2012, although the company now calls it a "mild" recession, which is quite a shift from their original stance 18 months ago: "...if you think this is a bad economy, you havent seen anything yet."
Recession Watch: ECRI's Weekly Leading Indicator Rises
Essentially ECRI is sticking to its call that a recession began in mid-2012, although the company now calls it a "mild" recession, which is quite a shift from their original stance 18 months ago: "...if you think this is a bad economy, you havent seen anything yet."
ECRI's Recession Indicators Decline from the Previous Week
Today ECRI has added a new headline on the website, Employment Growth Hits New Low, based on data from todays jobs report. Essentially ECRI is sticking to its call that a recession began in mid-2012, although the company now calls it a "mild" recession, which is quite a shift from their original stance 18 months ago: "...if you think this is a bad economy, you havent seen anything yet."
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Click to viewHere is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poors "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1,550.83. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,569.19. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poors latest earnings spreadsheet.
ECRI Recession Indicator: Unchanged from Last Week
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) to one decimal place is unchanged from last week. It is now at 129.7, the same as last weeks downward revision from 129.8. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) has risen fractionally to 6.6%, up from last weeks 6.3%. Those of us who regularly follow ECRIs publicly available data and commentaries understand that there is no logical connection between ECRIs proprietary indicators and their "pronounced, pervasive and persistent" recession call of September 2011.
ECRIs "Recession" Indicators: Unchanged from Last Week
The only new ECRI-related news since last Fridays update is a CBS Moneywatch commentary, Can the stock market rise while the economy stalls? ECRI liked the commentary well enough to reprint it on the companys website. It basically reiterates Achuthans point in the "Yo-Yo Years" essay that its possible for the market to rise during a recession, citing three such instances (of the 15 recessions) since the Roaring Twenties.
ECRIs Recession Call: Proprietary Indicators Still Not Cooperating
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in todays update. It is now at 129.9 versus the previous weeks 129.5 (revised upward from 129.3). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) has eased, now at 6.3, down from last weeks 6.4 (an upward revision from 6.2).
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales
With the exception of Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments (e.g., Social Security, Supplementary Security Income, workers compensation, etc.), the Big Four continue to show expansion. The seemingly bizarre income data is the result of the end-of-year strategy of early bonuses and moving forward of 2013 income to avoid higher taxes. Weve seen this situation before in the 1990s. The PI anomaly is the reason the average for the Big Four (the gray line above) has shows contraction for the past two months.
Some Stunning Demographic Trends in Employment
I spent much of yesterday reviewing the latest employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). They have a wealth of employment data, much of which stretches back to 1948. My focus was the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) with some specific attention to gender and age. The LFPR is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population. The result is the participation rate expressed as a percent.
ECRI "Recession" Update: Lakshman Achuthan Stands his Ground
The big news this week is the ECRI's Chief Operating Officer and spokesman, Lakshman Achuthan, returned to the media circuit with interviews yesterday on Bloomberg, CNBC and Yahoo's Daily Ticker. In addition, ECRI has published a new commentary available to the general public.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1,512.31. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,514.68. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
ECRI "Recession" Update: Proprietary Indicators Slip Again
ECRI adamantly denied that the sharp decline of their indicators in 2010 marked the beginning of a recession. But in 2011, when their proprietary indicators were at levels higher than 2010, they made their recession call with stunning confidence bordering on arrogance.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments
I've now updated this commentary to include the January Personal Income data, the red line in the chart below. As expected, the January brought the inevitable reversal of the dramatic advance in the November and December data, which was a result of moving income forward to manage the tax risk in anticipation of the Fiscal Cliff. The -4.7% decline in January essentially cancels the 1.4% rise in November and 3% rise in December.
ECRI "Recession" Update: Proprietary Indicators Slip Again
ECRI adamantly denied that the sharp decline of their indicators in 2010 marked the beginning of a recession. But in 2011, when their proprietary indicators were at levels higher than 2010, they made their recession call with stunning confidence bordering on arrogance...
ECRI "Recession" Update: Propietary Indicators Take a Pause
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped fractionally in today's update. It is now at 129.6 versus the previous week's 130.2.The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also eased, now at 8.3, down from last week's 8.9. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 10th of last year, but is is fractionally off its interim high set last week.
ECRI "Recession" Update: Leading Index Growth Sets Another Interim High
First a flashback for those of us who have followed ECRI's media appearances: we know that the company adamantly denied that the sharp decline of their indicators in 2010 marked the beginning of a recession. But in 2011, when their proprietary indicators were at levels higher than 2010, they made their recession call with stunning confidence bordering on arrogance...
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1,480.40. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,498.11.
ECRI "Recession" Update: Leading Index Growth Hits Another Interim High
ECRI posts its proprietary indicators on one-week delayed basis to the general public, but ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan has switched focus to his company's version of the Big Four Economic Indicators I've been tracking for the past several months. See, for example, this November 29thBloomberg video that ECRI continues to feature on their website. Achuthan pinpoints July as the business cycle peak, thus putting us in at the beginning of the eighth month of a recession.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Nonfarm Employment
Note from dshort: This commentary has been revised to include the latest Nonfarm Employment data released today.... Nonfarm Employment rose 0.12% in January, following 0.15% and 0.18% gains in December and November, respectively. The Year-over-year increase is 1.52%. Nonfarm employment has been the tortoise of the Big Four, slow and steady. The average MoM change over the past 12 months has been 0.13%, and the range has been 0.07% to 0.20% -- no contractions.
ECRI "Recession" Update: Leading Index Growth Hits a New Interim High
For a few months, ECRI's indicators cooperated with their forecast, but that has not been the case in the second half of 2012 -- hence, I surmise, their switch to the traditional Big Four recession indicators. ECRI's December 7th article,The Tell-Tale Chart, makes clear their public focus on the Big Four.
ECRI's Public Indicators Continue to Undermine Their Insistance That We're in a Recession
For a few months, ECRI's indicators cooperated with their forecast, but that has not been the case in the second half of 2012 -- hence, I surmise, their switch to the traditional Big Four recession indicators. ECRI's December 7th article, The Tell-Tale Chart, makes clear their public focus on the Big Four.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production Both Rise
The charts don't all show us the individual behavior of the Big Four leading up to the 2007 recession. To achieve that goal, I've plotted the same data using a "percent off high" technique. In other words, I show successive new highs as zero and the cumulative percent declines of months that aren't new highs. The advantage of this approach is that it helps us visualize declines more clearly and to compare the depth of declines for each indicator and across time (e.g., the short 2001 recession versus the Great Recession). Here is my own four-pack showing the indicators with this technique.
ECRI's Imaginary Recession: Now in Its Seventh Month
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 128.3 versus the previous week's 126.6 (which is an upward revision from 126.4). Likewise the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 5.1, up from last week's 5.0. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 24th, although it is off its 6.0 interim high on October 12th.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1,422.29. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,426.19.
ECRI Update: Flunking Recession 101
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 128.3 versus the previous week's 127.2. Likewise the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 5.4, up from last week's 4.6. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 24th, although it is off its 6.0 interim high on October 12th.
ECRI Update: The Recession Call Is Further Undermined
TheWeekly Leading Index(WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped fractionally in the latest public data. It is now at 127.2 versus the previous week's 127.4. However, the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 4.6, up from last week's 3.9. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 24th, although it is off its high at 6.0 on October 12th.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Incomes Improve Significantly By Doug Short
The weight of these four in the decision process is sufficient rationale for the St. Louis FRED repository to feature achart four-packof these indicators along with the statement that "the charts plot four main economic indicators tracked by the NBER dating committee." Here are the four as identified in the Federal Reserve Economic Data repository. See the data specifics in the linkedPDF filewith details on the calculation of two of the indicators.
ECRI Weekly Update: Walking the Recession Plank
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data to its highest level since early August of 2011. It is now at 127.7, up from a downwardly revised 126.7 in the previous week. See the WLI chart. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also rose, now at 4.4 from last week's 3.5. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 24th, although it is off its high at 6.0 on October 12th.
ECRI Weekly Update: More Recession Flag Waving
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose slightly in the latest public data. It is now at 126.8, up from an upwardly revised 126.2 in the previous week. See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also rose, now at 3.5 from last week's 3.4. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 24th, althout it is off its high at 6.0 on October 12th.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1394.52. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 1,416.18. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
ECRI Weekly Update: Beating the Recession Drum
TheWeekly Leading Index(WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose slightly in the latest public data. It is now at 126.3, up from 125.4 in the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) declined to 3.4, down from last week's 3.6. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 17th, although it is now at a six-week low, with the high at 6.0 on October 12th.
Median Household Incomes: The "Real" Story
The traditional source of household income data is the Census Bureau, which publishes annual household income data each September for the previous year. Sentier Research, an organization that focuses on income and demographics, offers a more up-to-date glimpse of household incomes by accessing the Census Bureau data and publishing monthly updates.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Index Rises, Growth Diminishes
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose slightly in the latest public data (released Wednesday in advance of the Thanksgiving holiday). It is now at 125.7, up from 125.4 in the previous week. See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) declined to 3.8, down from last week's 4.3. WLIg has been in expansion territory for thirteen weeks, although it is now at a seven-week low, with the high at 6.0 on October 12th.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: The Slippage Continues
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) declined again in the numbers released today. It is now at 125.4, down from its interim high of 127.6 set five weeks earlier. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also declined, now at 4.4, down from last week's downard revision to 5.0. WLIg has been in expansion territory for twelve weeks, although it is now at a five-week low, with the revised high at 6.0 on October 12th.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Off Its Interim High
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) declined in the numbers released today. It is now at 126.2, down from its interim high of 127.6 set four weeks earlier. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also declined, now at 5.1, down from last week's 5.9. WLIg has now spent eleven consecutive weeks in expansion territory, although it is now at a five-week low.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Still Jogging in Place
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped fractionally in the numbers released today. It is now at 126.6, down from last week's 126.7 (revised from 126.8). Likewise, the WLI growth indicator (WLIg) slipped slightly, now at 5.9, down from last week's 6.0. WLIg has now spent ten consecutive weeks in expansion territory, although it is off its interim high of 6.1. But for the past six weeks the WLI has been jogging in place in a narrow range (126.2 to 126.7).
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Running in Place
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose fractionally in the numbers released today. It is now at 126.8, up from last week's 126.6 (revised from 126.7). However, the WLI growth indicator (WLIg) slipped slightly in expansion territory, not at 6.0, down from last week's 6.1. WLIg has now spent nine consecutive weeks of in expansion territory. But essentially the WLI has been running in place for the past five weeks.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Index Slips, But Growth Rises
The Weekly Leading Index of the Economic Cycle Research Institute declined in the numbers released today. It is now at 126.7, down from last week's 127.6 (revised from 127.7). However, the WLI growth indicator rose further in expansion territory to 6.1, up from last week's 5.7. WLIg has now posted sixteen consecutive weeks of improvement and is at its highest level since May 20, 2011. The divergence between the WLI and its growth derivative is probably attributable to apparent anomaly in the BLS's weekly unemployment data over the past two weeks.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Updated Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production
The latest updates to the Big Four was today's release of the September Industrial Production, which rose 0.4 percent over the previous month following a 1.4 percent decline the month before. Yesterday the Census Bureau's Retail Sales number was released, and with today's release of the Consumer Price Index we can calculate Real Retail Sales. The latest 0.6% increase gives us a strong three-month upward trend after four months of flat or contracting data. Both indicators beat analysts' expectations.
Results 101–150
of 407 found.
