James McHugh isn’t afraid of a little risk. The trouble this year has been knowing where to find it. Crypto burned him. Meme stocks are stuck in the pits. So McHugh, a 36-year-old who works in Houston’s oil and gas industry, has been getting his fix in a corner of the market retail investors typically overlook — junk debt.

One is here already. The other is lurking right around the corner. Which should worry investors more?

It’s been a brutal stretch for retail traders. Stocks are approaching a bear market. A selloff wiped $200 billion off cryptocurrencies in a single day. And Morgan Stanley found that amateur investors who jumped into the market when lockdowns began in 2020 have lost all their gains.

America’s central bank increased its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, pushing it up by a quarter percentage point. The hike — the first since 2018 — was widely expected. But at a time when Russia’s war in Ukraine has roiled global markets, U.S. inflation is at its highest level since the 1980s and Covid-19 cases are increasing in some parts of the world, consumers and investors are contending with the prospect of rates going even higher.

Most analysts expected some action on interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2022 — but maybe not the five rate hikes they’re now pricing in. Inflation was clearly driving upwards, but we’re seeing much higher, more consistent price increases.