The new variant will test our ability to live with COVID-19
Once started, wage-price spirals are hard to stop.
Boosting confidence in public health is essential to a durable economic recovery.
The phrase “behind the curve” originates from aviation. The “power curve” maps an airplane’s speed to the thrust applied by the engine. This relationship varies with conditions; being behind the power curve can risk stalling or damaging the plane.
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to dealing with COVID-19.
Global themes we are tracking: public health, de-globalization, policy retreat, technology and the East and West divide.
The outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond is positive, but the recovery remains uneven. The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead.
Personal trading could undermine public trust in the Federal Reserve.
The Delta variant’s impact on supply chains and domestic spending slowed economic activity in the third quarter. Consumer confidence dipped noticeably, and businesses’ outlook dimmed somewhat. Rising inflation, the product of goods and labor shortages, has been a concern.
Several events will have major influences on the global economy in the months ahead.
The spillover from the property sector to the broader economy could be significant.
The Fed governors will soon decide when and how to taper asset purchases.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for the U.S. economy.
Evergrande is an example of the risk of debt defaults to China's financial stability.
Floods, fires and droughts are growing risks.
A puzzling jump in retired Americans should reverse soon.
Measures aimed at containing COVID-19 will suppress growth and stress inflation.
The recovery has had its ups and downs, but the economy is moving in the right direction.
The debate over post-pandemic scheduling often centers on productivity.
A firm economic recovery is well underway, but the fast-spreading Delta variant is clouding the outlook.
Delta has the potential to alter the path of recovery; central banks are rising to face heavy challenges; and U.S. states have survived a major stress event.
Workers have the upper hand, but not for long; Latin America stagflates; and Sweden provides a case study in COVID-19 response.
Reflecting on a busy six months of vaccines, inflation, trade relations, supply chains, and policy challenges.
Brexit is as complicated as we expected, but restaurants are reviving and aircraft tariffs are suspended.
Many economies are now in advanced stages of economic reopening, but some are still struggling.
COVID made demographic challenges even more complicated, but that hasn't slowed demand for houses in the U.S.
Crisis investments may yield a lasting boost to productivity, while Australia's restrictions pose a lingering risk.
China was the first nation to enter recovery, and high U.S. import demand has helped it.
Advanced economies are doing better than emerging markets.
Biden pushes more spending just as the U.S. debt ceiling returns from hiatus, while Scotland's standing in the U.K. is uncertain.
Labor markets are changing course. When will the Fed do the same? India's second wave will disrupt activity elsewhere.
"Buy American:" easier said than done. Sports leagues are still struggling, and tax evasion is costly.
Human capital needs renewal; COVID-19 sweeps through India again, while the U.S. economy springs back to life.
National corporate tax policies need global coordination; U.S. unemployment rates don't tell the full story.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for global growth in this year of reopening.
Infrastructure merits more investment, everywhere; we look at the specifics of the U.S. proposal.
A year ago, the U.S. registered its deepest economic contraction since the Second World War.
Central banks will go digital, and homeowners avoided foreclosure.
Addressing technical, idiosyncratic and structural aspects of inflation.
Failure to boost vaccination programs could hurt the eurozone economy.
Reflecting on the anniversary of the pandemic, revamped child benefits and how democracy fosters economic growth.
Will the Fed respond to inflation concerns?
Over the past month, the expectations of growth in the year ahead have surged, with fixed income markets repricing and investors shifting allocations in anticipation of growth.
How does risk management work when risks change rapidly?
How long will the effects of COVID be felt in potential growth, the tourism sector and bankruptcy filings?
Weighing the costs of global vaccine access, minimum wage and the energy rally.
A strong economic rebound is expected towards the middle of the year, followed by a return to more normal growth in 2022.
