What’s next for trade talks with China and the U.S.?, Emerging markets face the middle-income trap, CECL provides more insurance for the financial system.
Wie Gehts mit Deutschland?; Jump-Starting U.S. Startups; Big Data Is Changing Inflation
Today’s government finances add to tomorrow’s problems; The strong U.S. dollar is a mixed blessing; Prisons are expensive for both taxpayers and inmates
The proposed nominations of Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the board of governors threaten to compromise the Fed’s strong character. Both have been major fundraisers for the president, and both have pledged to use their posts on the Board to support the White House program. They seem intent on bringing a political agenda into a forum that tries to operate without one.
Despite its name, MMT is not modern. It is the latest iteration of the idea of monetizing the debt, relying on a central bank to create demand for a country’s bonds. The Bank of Japan routinely buys all Japanese government bonds on the open market, keeping borrowing costs near zero despite a massive government debt. Japan has not imploded under this debt burden, but it has stagnated. Government intervention reduced a crisis, but did not unlock growth.
The Expansion’s Endgame?; Latin America: Caught In The Middle; What The Yield Curve Is (And Isn’t) Telling Us
Brexit May-hem; Is the Dot Plot Shot?; Getting Kids to Finish College
A New Normal For The Fed Balance Sheet; How Tariffs Work…and Don't Work; The ECB Goes Back To The TLTRO Well
Amazon HQ2 shows the limits of local economic development incentives; China and the U.S. break through a wall in negotiations; and The Fed ponders new approaches to inflation targeting
GSE reform is in sight, China’s stimulus falls short, and bank mergers are back.
As we enter tax season, we explore the collection and use of individual income taxes.
Central banks face a difficult year. Eurozone economies are slowing. And the U.S. government shutdown can’t be ignored.
Weakness in the Chinese economy is becoming clearer, while the way forward for Brexit is anything but clear. And what exactly does "tighter financial conditions" mean?
Markets struggle to price new risks, and the U.S. government shutdown grows in severity.
Several years into the recovery from the global economic crisis, the jobs of central banks have only become more difficult. How are indebtedness, inequality, inflation and instability contributing to their problems, and what can we expect from future interest rate decisions?
Private, public and international pension plans are all due for a reckoning.
Senior Economist Ryan Boyle looks at how America accumulated so many student loans, and how best to deal with them going forward.
Dramatic events surrounding Brexit left Theresa May’s government balancing on a precipice. What are the economic implications? Later in the column, we examine U.S. drug prices and possible solutions to exploding costs.
How will the results of the U.S. midterm elections be reflected in trade agreements, legislation and international relations?
This week, we evaluate the potential near-term futures of nationalism, inflation, demographic shifts, emerging markets and the effects of prosperity. What trends can we expect to encounter?
Is the International Monetary Fund a useful tool in preventing economic dysfunction? Or, as the nationalists claim, are there more appropriate uses of capital?
With USMCA and Brexit negotiations, nations are reworking the world’s most fundamental trade agreements. How will these new treaties affect global relations?
What do a Nobel Prize, oil prices and employee compensation have in common? Change. The Nobel committee tipped its hat to the importance of recognizing climate change with its prize for Economic Sciences. But changes in oil’s global role and compensation vs. wages are also on our minds
Both the U.S. state of Illinois and the nation of Brazil suffer from fiscal deficits that have been years in the making. How can these trends be reversed, and will the upcoming elections for each government contribute to a solution?
This week, we look back at EU's recovery from the global financial crisis and the new normal of the US housing market. They have both recovered, but are we on the right path?
This week, the team looks at what’s ahead for the Fed
Infrastructure investment promises are politically popular, but actual funding has been slow to follow. Italy’s bridge collapse illustrates the real risks of putting off infrastructure projects. The shortage of truck drivers in the U.S. is driving inflation, and this labor market gap looks likely to last.
This week, the NT Economic team covers the following topics:- Turkey’s Troubles- Should countries try to control capital?- Labor markets work best when there are no guarantees
The economic team looks at the possibility of a bad Brexit.
The Northern Trust Economics team tracks China’s fiscal policies and exchange rate volatility, and reacts to recent comments that undermine the Fed’s independence
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook on the Fed’s balance sheet, the world's persistent preference for cash, and the challenge of measuring the gig economy.
The Northern Trust economics team explores agriculture markets globally and in the United States.
The Northern Trust Economics team addresses a variety of questions heard most often from our audiences.
The economics team surveys a variety of upcoming events: Mexican elections this weekend, trade battles in the coming months, and LIBOR sunsetting in the years ahead.
China is in focus this week as the economics team considers the country’s trade practices and defaults in its bond market.
What happened at the Fed and the ECB meetings? The economics team explains.
The team illustrates the economic background behind the Korean summit meeting and profiles corporate debt.
The Northern Trust Economics team recaps the circumstances that led to this week’s drama in Italy and investigates a slowdown in U.S. business formation.
In this issue, the Economics team looks at current recession risks in the U.S. and eurozone, and explores how rising oil prices will affect U.S. consumers.
The Northern Trust economics team explores the risks of overstretched state and local governments, dramatic actions in Argentina and Turkey, and the recent difficulty of the carry trade.
Oil prices are rising. We explore the causes of this recent trend and the effects it will have on markets across the world.
This week, the economics team takes a look at NAFTA, past and present.
In this issue, the Northern Trust economics team explores the challenges facing Ireland in Brexit, the continuing demand for eurozone debt, and wage growth within U.S. states.
How much debt is too much? [Carl/The Northern Trust Economics team] digests the outlook for debt across countries and levels of government, recaps the most recent outlook for the U.S. fiscal situation, and contrasts China’s current ascendance with the historical example of Japan.
This issue contains a deeper look into the competitive strategies at play in the current U.S.-China tariff feud, the drivers of the recent upturn in U.S. homeownership, and the market for Japanese government bonds.
One year away from its deadline, Brexit is already shaping up to be an expensive arrangement. Strong U.S. employment makes us question the “natural rate” of unemployment. Do aging populations increase or reduce inflation? Time will tell.
In many respects, economists are a little unusual. We think in odd ways, and we arrange data into odd patterns. We find it hard to reach conclusions without significant equivocation.
The White House has announced a new set of broad tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The measure is surprising in its scope, its targets and its break from the long-prevailing trends of international trade.
This week, the White House signaled its intention to place punitive tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. Markets and analysts reacted quickly, and negatively.
U.S. fiscal policy has become unmoored, and it will be difficult to steer it safely back to shore.