How much debt is too much? [Carl/The Northern Trust Economics team] digests the outlook for debt across countries and levels of government, recaps the most recent outlook for the U.S. fiscal situation, and contrasts China’s current ascendance with the historical example of Japan.
This issue contains a deeper look into the competitive strategies at play in the current U.S.-China tariff feud, the drivers of the recent upturn in U.S. homeownership, and the market for Japanese government bonds.
One year away from its deadline, Brexit is already shaping up to be an expensive arrangement. Strong U.S. employment makes us question the “natural rate” of unemployment. Do aging populations increase or reduce inflation? Time will tell.
In many respects, economists are a little unusual. We think in odd ways, and we arrange data into odd patterns. We find it hard to reach conclusions without significant equivocation.
The White House has announced a new set of broad tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The measure is surprising in its scope, its targets and its break from the long-prevailing trends of international trade.
This week, the White House signaled its intention to place punitive tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. Markets and analysts reacted quickly, and negatively.
U.S. fiscal policy has become unmoored, and it will be difficult to steer it safely back to shore.
I am a traditionalist when it comes to outdoor cooking: wood and charcoal are the only suitable fuels.
It is said we should be careful what we wish for, because we just might get it. Beginning late last week, stocks finally stepped back. Market declines of 5% and even 10% occur with some regularity, even in the midst of long bull intervals
Given the events of a decade ago, 2018 promises to be a year filled with reminiscence. Chroniclers will recall the signs of the gathering storm: falling U.S. house prices, rising mortgage defaults and spreading institutional failures.
For more than a year, the U.S. Dollar (USD) has been losing value relative to most other currencies. When asked about this trend this week in Davos, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin seemed unconcerned, and even supportive.
Most central banks have targets, too. And judged solely by the numbers, monetary policy would be assigned a substandard rating.
As it is for people, so it is for business cycles, which can become more vulnerable as they continue. This theory will certainly be tested in 2018. The global economy enters this year with considerable momentum and lots of policy support.
The economic news this year could scarcely have been better. Strong growth, low inflation and rising asset prices in major markets will make 2017 one of the most successful years in recent memory.
Times have changed, in more ways than one. This December has been especially hectic, with the transition in Brexit negotiations, U.S. tax reform debate and Bitcoin setting new highs every few minutes.
We’re thankful for this year’s economic growth in the U.S., which has exceeded most expectations. A soft first quarter has been followed by two quarters in which real activity expanded at an annual pace exceeding 3%.
The elimination of personal exemptions is one of many features of the tax reform proposal presently being debated in Washington. If passed, the new regime would realign the finances of industries, households and even countries.
All cultures have the challenge of balancing the past and the present. But nowhere is the contrast between the two more apparent than in the Middle East.
The eurozone has been the brightest star on this year’s economic horizon. The region’s output expanded at a 2.5% pace during the second quarter and has been rising continuously for 48 consecutive months.
Pharmaceutical costs represent about 10% of total U.S. health care expenditures, or about $325 billion each year.
Monetary Policy Rules: Revisited and Giving Japan Credit
Uncertainty about U.S. fiscal policy changes persists. Tax cuts and infrastructure spending proposals are on the table, but they are unlikely to be enacted in 2017. We continue to maintain skepticism about the timing and size of the fiscal policy boost to economic growth. In the meantime, the expansion continues on, unperturbed.
Seniors and their families approach this milestone with a mix of pride and trepidation. Pride arises from the achievement of heightened status within the community of educated women and men. But there is trepidation about what lies ahead at the next level.
In this commentary we will summarize:
Having accumulated a massive portfolio of securities during its quantitative easing (QE) program, the Fed has now arrived at a point where reduction is appropriate. But trimming the weight of monetary accommodation may not be easy.
Today, it seems as if there is a mysterious voice speaking to politicians all over the world, urging them to build.
