Current estimates show a significant gap between the rate expectations of Wall Street economists and the Fed funds futures markets. The spread between their estimates for December 2019 is nearly 100 basis points, the equivalent of roughly four rate hikes. Over time, this gap in expectations is going to close one way or the other.
Countless articles have been written in the past 10 years predicting (or warning) of China’s imminent financial demise, with the number of articles accelerating in recent years amid China’s debt build-up in the post Global Financial Crisis period. Investing on the basis of a “China collapse” view of the world would likely have resulted in more risk-averse portfolios in the emerging debt space and, hence, lower returns in recent years.
The German phrase Sturm und Drang (literally: storm and stress) describes situations that become especially dramatic. This seems an apt expression to describe both the immediate past and the near future for the United States economy.
The eurozone has been the brightest star on this year’s economic horizon. The region’s output expanded at a 2.5% pace during the second quarter and has been rising continuously for 48 consecutive months.
Pharmaceutical costs represent about 10% of total U.S. health care expenditures, or about $325 billion each year.
Supply and demand theories suggest worker scarcity would increase the price paid for labor. This has certainly been the case during recent American expansions, when annual wage gains topped 4%.
Warm temperatures prevail in most of the United States at the moment, a trend that is mirrored in recent economic data. We don't expect conditions to cool as autumn approaches.