The S&P 500 fell almost 50% between mid-February and mid-March 2020, during the initial stages of the pandemic.
Housing prices have soared in the past year. The national Case-Shiller index is up 11.2% in the past twelve months, the largest gain since 2005-06.
When the scientists said “15 days to slow the spread,” some of us actually believed that by Easter the shutdowns would end.
You've got to hand it to the Federal Reserve. With the cleverness of a seasoned head coach – think Jim Boeheim leading Syracuse in the NCAA basketball tournament – they figured out how to accomplish a great deal while making it look like they didn't have many tools at their disposal.
At its most recent meeting the Federal Reserve made no changes to monetary policy and minimal changes to its statement, simply acknowledging that some economic indicators have "turned up" recently while also noting that inflation remains below 2.0%.
We believe inflation is still, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon. It is defined as "too much money chasing too few goods and services" – but that doesn't mean every period of higher inflation is going to look exactly the same.
The Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 gave the Fed a “dual mandate” – to promote maximum sustainable employment and stable prices. Over the years, the meaning of these two mandates has changed.
Those of us who are concerned about inflation increasing faster than the Federal Reserve anticipates are focusing on the rapid increase in the M2 measure of the money supply.
After receiving the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus from China, it took Moderna just two days (two days!!) to generate the sequence of the vaccine. In less than a month, they produced the first clinical batch of the mRNA-1273 vaccine that has now seen tens of millions of doses distributed.
Things are looking up for the US economy. Later this week we'll get an update on real GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2020. We estimate that'll be revised up to a 4.3% annual rate of growth from a prior estimate of 4.0%.
Ever since the stock market bottomed in 2009 during the financial crisis, people have been coming up with reasons why the bull market was about to end. We heard every reason – Brexit, the end of Quantitative Easing, too much debt, COVID, etc. – and while we understood each may be a cause for consternation, we focused on valuations, which suggested the bull market would continue. Over time, math wins.
Inflation is not dead. It is not gone. It has not been tamed. We know it seems like it, especially after the past few decades which generated in many an "inflation-complacency" that feels justified. After all, following the 2008 Financial Panic, many predicted Quantitative Easing would cause hyper-inflation.
Yes, 2021 is starting off as crazy as 2020. They don't agree on the Green New Deal, or Socialism, but Ted Cruz and AOC both agree that limiting investor access to markets is a mistake. In case you missed it, last week, Robinhood, a new online trading platform that marketed itself as democratizing investment, stopped investors from buying certain stocks.
Beyond the annual rotation of voting members on the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC), there wasn't change in today's Fed statement. While acknowledging the moderation in some recent economic data, and that weakness is concentrated in areas most directly impacted by the pandemic...
The budget deficit for fiscal year 2020, which ended 9/30/2020, was $3.1 trillion, the highest ever on record in dollar terms, and the highest relative to GDP since World War II. This year the deficit will be even larger.
The double-dip recession so many feared didn't arrive in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it certainly doesn't look like it will happen in early 2021, either.
The seemingly endless election of 2020 is finally over, with Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia.
When it comes to attracting people, jobs, and businesses, some states are just better than others. While the total US population increased 6.5% from 2010 to 2020, it increased 17.1% in Utah, 16.3% in Texas, 16.3% in Idaho, 16.1% in Nevada, 15.8% in Arizona, and 15.3% in Florida.
We can't possibly exhaust our thoughts on all these topics in one Monday Morning Outlook, but we thought we'd give it the old college try.
The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary gave birth after arriving in Bethlehem and placed baby Jesus in a manger because there was "no room for them in the inn."
Nobody expected to see a rate change from this week's FOMC meetings, but interest remained high as the market awaited the latest Fed forecasts on where they see the US economy headed from here.
Back room deals in Washington, DC always die and come back to life, over and over, again. And, even though a "COVID-shutdown rescue package" seems like a no brainer, it's been caught up in politics for months.
The COVID-19 Recession is the weirdest we've ever had. There is no way anyone could have forecast it. It did not happen because the Fed was too tight. It did not happen because of a trade war. It was self-inflicted, caused by COVID shutdowns.
In December 2019, we made a year-end 2020 forecast of 3,650 for the S&P 500. With the index closing Friday at 3,638, that looks like a very good call.
Who's in charge of fiscal policy? That's the real issue behind the recent dispute between Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the Treasury's decision to end certain emergency lending facilities by December 31, 2020.
Give Thanks! The US economy continues to heal. Payrolls keep growing, unemployment claims - though still elevated - are shrinking, key measures of the manufacturing and service sectors remain well into positive territory, and, as this week should show, both retail sales and industrial production remain on an upward trajectory.
While the election is still not certified, and court battles will drag on, it appears that we can draw two firm conclusions from the 2020 election. First, the pollsters were horribly wrong again. Secondly, American voters do not want a radical shift in economic policy.
If you hadn't known that there was a Federal Reserve statement coming out today, you wouldn't have missed much. As if 2020 wasn't weird enough, there was a Federal Reserve meeting, and a new statement from the FOMC today, and virtually no one noticed. We guess that makes sense given everything that is going on. But, don't fret - nothing changed.
As the US opened up, real GDP rebounded sharply in the third quarter, growing at a 33.1% annual rate. However, real GDP is still down 2.9% from a year ago and the economy got a huge boost from spending by the federal government, which borrowed from the future in order to allow people to spend today.
To reiterate, this Thursday morning we expect the government to report a huge, and virtually unprecedented, surge of a 33.4% annualized growth rate in real GDP growth for the third quarter. There are still a few monthly reports due this week that could affect our forecast, but only slightly.
There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of "non-essential" businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a V-shaped recovery is being traced out.
COVID lockdowns crushed the economy in the first half of 2020, with real GDP down 5.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter and 31.4% at annual rate in the second quarter, the latter of which was the steepest drop in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
Over the past couple of decades, the Federal Reserve has coalesced around an idea about inflation that is little more than theoretical, with no real data to back it up. That "idea" is that 2% inflation is the "correct" amount of inflation.
The second quarter of 2020 was the mother of all economic contractions. Real GDP shrank at a 31.7% annual rate, the largest drop for any quarter since the Great Depression.
The Federal Reserve was already holding short-term interest rates near zero. What today's meeting made clear was how determined the Fed is to hold them there for at least the next few years and perhaps well into the current decade.
As we near the end of the third quarter, key economic reports will be released that will influence our forecast for third quarter real Gross Domestic Product. It will be a very strong quarter.
At the end of 2019 we made the same exact forecast for the end of 2020 — the strangest year in our lifetimes, and it's not even over. Compared to most analysts, this was a very bullish call. And then, when the market hit a pre-COVID19 peak of 3386 in mid-February, if anything we looked not bullish enough.
The US economy got crushed in the second quarter, with the worst decline in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, the long road to recovery has started and, for now, we're penciling in real GDP growth at a 20% annual rate for the third quarter. Of all the parts of the US economy that have weathered the COVID-19 storm, none has been as resilient as the housing market.
Election Day is eleven weeks from tomorrow. In political time, this is an eternity. However, with the White House, about one-third of the Senate, and the entire House of Representatives on the ballot, this election is significant. Particularly because the two presidential candidates have such stark differences in policy perspectives, especially with respect to taxes.
It's going to take years for the US economy to fully heal from the economic disaster brought about by COVID-19 and the government-mandated shutdowns which continue to limit economic activity across the country.
These days, pretty much everything is hyper-political, including death rates from disease, wearing masks, opening schools, whether some demonstrations are "mostly peaceful" or "violent," and now GDP.
Right now, it looks like the US economy shrank at a 35% annual rate in Q2. To put that in perspective, the worst quarter we've ever had since the military wind-down immediately following World War II was -10% in the first quarter of 1958, when, not by coincidence, the US was hit by an Asian flu. This is going to shatter that record by multiples and will likely be the worst since the Great Depression.
"There is no such thing as a free lunch." It's been attributed to many different people, Milton Friedman and Robert Heinlein, among others. Regardless of who said it, we think it's one of the most basic economic truths.
It's time to think about something other than COVID, statues, the election, and defunding the police. How about higher education? Specifically, student loans and grants.
Not since the 1960s and 70s has the United States experienced social upheaval like it is experiencing today. We have protests (both peaceful and otherwise), and a massively divided political landscape. On top of that, we have a virus that is spreading across the country, creating fear and an acceptance of economic shutdowns.
A resurgence of new Coronavirus cases around the country has created uncertainty for investors. Stock markets fell last week, not because of the virus, but because investors fear another round of economy-killing, government-mandated lockdowns. We don't expect that to happen, but when the government is involved, risks are definitely higher.
Turning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions.
The one key takeaway from last week's Fed meeting is that monetary policymakers are set to keep short-term interest rates near zero for as far as the eye can see. Not forever, but at least until 2023. Keep this in mind in the week ahead, as we get more reports confirming the economic recovery started back in May.
The most important takeaway from today's Fed meeting is that policymakers don't expect to raise short-term interest rates until at least 2023.
The recession that started in March is the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. As it turns out, it was also the shortest.
