Next week, government statisticians will release the first estimate for third quarter real GDP growth. In spite of hurricanes, and continued negativity by conventional wisdom, we expect 2.8% growth.
If the current economic expansion lasts another year and a half, it'll be the longest on record, even surpassing the expansion of the 1990s that ended in early 2001.
Chautauqua Capital Management is a long-term, quality-growth global equity investor with a generally optimistic view. However, we are less so today. Risks have increased, and the global financial markets appear to be at a heightened risk of a sell-off. Our concerns are around several factors, including the unwinding of extraordinary central bank policy, high valuations, investor compliancy, and heightened geopolitical risk.
On Sept. 20, the Federal Reserve (Fed) officially announced the start of its balance sheet unwinding process, embarking on a slow journey of reversing the quantitative easing (QE) policy that it launched in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Last week, at her press conference, Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen said continued low inflation was a "mystery."
The big news today wasn't the Federal Reserve's decision to start gradually reducing its balance sheet in October. Almost everyone expected that. Instead, the big news was that twelve of the sixteen members of the Fed's interest-rate setting body – the Federal Open Market Committee – think the Fed will be raising interest rates by at least 25 basis points later this year.
The emergence of “responsible investment” solutions has created an opportunity for clients to approach their portfolios more holistically and in line with their beliefs and values. The historical perception of a trade-off between optimizing returns and reflecting values is a false dichotomy.
No one expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates at the meeting this week. A rate change of any kind, either up or down, would be a complete stunner. Instead, the big news on monetary policy this week is very likely to be the Federal Reserve announcing it will begin gradually trimming its balance sheet at the start of October.
The Panic of 2008 was damaging in more ways than people think. Yes, there were dramatic losses for investors and homeowners, but these markets have recovered. What hasn't gone back to normal is the size and scope of Washington DC, especially the Federal Reserve. It's time for that to change.
The hits keep coming. Hurricane Harvey left destruction in its wake, and now, Hurricane Irma has Florida in its sights.